Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,259.2 million, led by materials, industrials, and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Haitian Flavouring, Longi Green, CMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,259.2 million, led by materials, industrials, and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities.
We highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Haitian Flavouring, Longi Green, CMB.


Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>An ad hoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The rebalances of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-emerging-markets-146edc02-f8a5-4ac5-968b-5f0f7c89e476" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32683:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-em-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32679:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdmtree-emerg-mkt-ex-st-ow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32798:1" rel="noopener">Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US)</a> will be implemented on 18 October.</li>
<li>There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> and CSI 1000 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


An ad hoc S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replacing United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU). 
The rebalances of Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US), Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US) and Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US) will be implemented on 18 October.
There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index trackers.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Over 90% of the way through the review period, we see 9 potential adds/10 potential deletes in December. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 6.1% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.27bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes this year though there has been a deterioration in performance over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


Over 90% of the way through the review period, we see 9 potential adds/10 potential deletes in December. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 6.1% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 5.27bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The adds have outperformed the deletes this year though there has been a deterioration in performance over the last few months.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Consolidating After Big Outperformance

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food / Equity Bottom-Up

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH)</a>, the largest condiment player in China is facing structural weakening of moat from a changed operating environment post-COVID.  </li>
<li>Both catering and home consumption segments are faced with structural growth pressures that are difficult to solve for the company.  </li>
<li>Expect further earnings weakness and derating in valuation multiple in the near term.  </li>
</ul>



Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH), the largest condiment player in China is facing structural weakening of moat from a changed operating environment post-COVID.  
Both catering and home consumption segments are faced with structural growth pressures that are difficult to solve for the company.  
Expect further earnings weakness and derating in valuation multiple in the near term.  


Haitian Flavouring (603288 CH):  Weakening Moat With Further Derating Likely

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary (inflows of $2,146 million), Financials (inflows of $1,619 million), Consumer Staples (inflows of $1,100 million) led the inflows while led the outflows.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, BYD, Wuliangye, East Money, Haitian Flavoring, Luxshare, Longi Green, Wus Printed, Yonyou Network.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer Discretionary (inflows of $2,146 million), Financials (inflows of $1,619 million), Consumer Staples (inflows of $1,100 million) led the inflows while led the outflows.
We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, BYD, Wuliangye, East Money, Haitian Flavoring, Luxshare, Longi Green, Wus Printed, Yonyou Network.


Northbound Flows Monthly (July): $7.3bn Inflows

China

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Ltd. manufactures food seasonings. The Company develops, produces, and distributes condiments including soy sauce, oyster sauce, vinegar, flavoring sauce, chicken stock, monosodium glutamate, and oil.

Price Gauge
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Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Consolidating After Big Outperformance

The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes this year but there has been a downward drift over the last few months. As we near the...

Brian Freitas

Haitian Flavouring (603288 CH): Weakening Moat With Further Derating Likely

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, the largest condiment player in China, likes sees further derating in valuation multiple due to a weakening moat.

Steve

Northbound Flows Monthly (July): $7.3bn Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for July and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, BYD, Wuliangye, East Money, Haitian Flavoring,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Consolidating After Big Outperformance

The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes this year but there has been a downward drift over the last few months. As we near the...

Brian Freitas

Haitian Flavouring (603288 CH): Weakening Moat With Further Derating Likely

​Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, the largest condiment player in China, likes sees further derating in valuation multiple due to a weakening moat.

Steve

Northbound Flows Monthly (July): $7.3bn Inflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for July and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, BYD, Wuliangye, East Money, Haitian Flavoring,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, the largest condiment player in China, likes sees further derating in valuation multiple due to a weakening moat.