HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Henlius Biotech / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their "dissatisfaction" by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.</li>
<li>Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.</li>
<li>Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.</li>
</ul>


Lin Lijun voted against the privatization, which is in line with our analysis.Lin and some other long-term investors expressed their "dissatisfaction" by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price.
Due to deal break, Henlius’ share price could be under pressure in short term.Investors may need to wait until the implementation of biosimilar VBP in 2025 to see situation clearly.
Despite biosimilar VBP, we remain optimistic about the outlook of Henlius, because its future development positioning will not be limited to just biosimilars, but will focus on internationalization.


Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a>'s (XJF) Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> (GAPack) turning <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0121/2025012100610.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unconditional</a> was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday's first close in light of CCASS movements.  </li>
<li>My bet is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>, after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.</li>
<li>With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong's options?</li>
</ul>



Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)'s (XJF) Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) (GAPack) turning unconditional was well telegraphed ahead of yesterday's first close in light of CCASS movements.  
My bet is China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK), after surprisingly selling below 5%, also tendered.
With 73.51% now in the bag and the Offer extended to the 4th February, what happens now? What are Jeff Bi and/or Gong Hong's options?


GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF's Offer Gets Up

<ul>
<li>Quite a lot of new news to digest - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">GAPack (468 HK)</a>'s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0107/2025010700041.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">concluded</a> that shareholders should not accept the Offer - in bold, red caps. </li>
<li>But more surprisingly, is the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0106/2025010601137.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disclosure announcement</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> has reduced its stake below 5%.  </li>
<li>Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender - or not - and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.</li>
</ul>


Quite a lot of new news to digest - GAPack (468 HK)'s IFA, not altogether surprisingly, concluded that shareholders should not accept the Offer - in bold, red caps. 
But more surprisingly, is the disclosure announcement that China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) has reduced its stake below 5%.  
Evidently Mengniu is keeping its options open to tender - or not - and not have to make public disclosures. Keep an eye out on CCASS movements.


GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says "Reject". But Mengniu Selling Down

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz / Event-Driven

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/millennium-copthorne-hotels-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5040:1" rel="noopener">Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ)</a> (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a>, its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. </li>
<li>City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. </li>
<li>Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.</li>
</ul>



Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ) (MCK), a Kiwi hotel chain, has announced that City Developments (CIT SP), its major shareholder, has made an Offer for shares not held. 
City Dev is offering NZ$2.25/share, a 25% premium to last close. City holds 75.86% and the offer is conditional on a 90% holding, including shares currently held. 
Reg approvals include OIA, which should be rubber-stamped. Very illiquid company.


Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev's Privatisation Offer

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Canvest Environmental Protection Group / Event-Driven

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (0XC SW)

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-share-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32217:1" rel="noopener">Smart Share Global (EM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pressance-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17783:1" rel="noopener">Pressance Corp (3254 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Smart Share Global (EM US), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK). 
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Latin Resources (LRS AU), Pressance Corp (3254 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (20 Jan) - Canvest, Henlius, Lifestyle China, Vesync, JAMCO, Insignia, AVJennings

China

Fosun Tourism Group is a world-leading family leisure and vacation group that provides tourism and leisure solutions across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates resorts such as Club Med and Atlantis Sanya, and offers various tourism and leisure services. Fosun Tourism Group was founded in 2009 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

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Fosun Tourism (6T8 GR)

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) - About the Deal Break and the Valuation Outlook

Lin Lijun and some investors expressed dissatisfaction by opposing the privatization due to disappointing Cancellation Price. We remain optimistic...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

GAPack (468 HK): Now What As XJF's Offer Gets Up

This is done and trading around terms. The back-end appears attractive but I have no strong conviction here. Shares could get suspended at the...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): IFA Says "Reject". But Mengniu Selling Down

The first close of XJF's Offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) is the 21st January, and for a number of investors, the deadline to tender...

David Blennerhassett

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MCK NZ): City Dev's Privatisation Offer

This is done. No other Offer will emerge. If small, illiquid arbs are your bent, look to enter here and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Jan) - Canvest, Henlius, Lifestyle China, Vesync, JAMCO, Insignia, AVJennings

This week, the highest gross spreads are Henlius (29.3%), Smart Share (16.8%), Lifestyle China (16.7%), Seven & I (15.4%), Get Nice (13.3%), ESR...

Arun George

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