HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.</li>
<li>The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. </li>
<li>Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  </li>
</ul>


China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.
The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. 
Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  


China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dragged by partial disposal by its parent, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> had a bad month in Sep and its share price is now back to early-2020 level. </li>
<li>1H22 has seen good loss reduction and 2H22 outlook is on positive trend. Booking momentum at Club Med is encouraging and operational capacity will return to the 2H19 level.</li>
<li>Atlantis Sanya has experienced gradual recovery in the Golden Week after the large-scale lockdown of Sanya in Aug. Completion of Lijiang and Taicang FOLIDAY Town will boost FY23.</li>
</ul>


Dragged by partial disposal by its parent, Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) had a bad month in Sep and its share price is now back to early-2020 level. 
1H22 has seen good loss reduction and 2H22 outlook is on positive trend. Booking momentum at Club Med is encouraging and operational capacity will return to the 2H19 level.
Atlantis Sanya has experienced gradual recovery in the Golden Week after the large-scale lockdown of Sanya in Aug. Completion of Lijiang and Taicang FOLIDAY Town will boost FY23.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Ride on Travel Demand and Capacity Recovery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> expects a sharp 87.5-92.5% reduction in its losses in 1H22, driven primarily by significant revival in its Club Med business, though China is weak.</li>
<li>Outlook for 2H22 looks very encouraging as booking figures indicate good YoY volume growth and double-digit rate improvement in EMEA and Americas. </li>
<li>China also witnessed solid rebound in Jul and Aug after removal of lockdowns in 2Q22. New Club Med Joyview resorts including Changbaishan and Qiandaohu are added contributors. </li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) expects a sharp 87.5-92.5% reduction in its losses in 1H22, driven primarily by significant revival in its Club Med business, though China is weak.
Outlook for 2H22 looks very encouraging as booking figures indicate good YoY volume growth and double-digit rate improvement in EMEA and Americas. 
China also witnessed solid rebound in Jul and Aug after removal of lockdowns in 2Q22. New Club Med Joyview resorts including Changbaishan and Qiandaohu are added contributors. 


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Positive Profit Alert and Improving Outlook Guidances

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> (FTG) is not a China play and, instead, it has excellent exposure to the global travel industry recovery particularly through its ownership in Club Med.</li>
<li>1Q22 showcased a very solid 306.6% rebound in business volume of resorts and tourism destination operations and tourism and leisure services and solutions business, and the trend will continue.</li>
<li>We think Club Med's exposure to overseas recovery, Atlantis Sanya's ride on domestic demand and new resorts' good position to capture China's travel recovery are key drivers for FTG.</li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) (FTG) is not a China play and, instead, it has excellent exposure to the global travel industry recovery particularly through its ownership in Club Med.
1Q22 showcased a very solid 306.6% rebound in business volume of resorts and tourism destination operations and tourism and leisure services and solutions business, and the trend will continue.
We think Club Med's exposure to overseas recovery, Atlantis Sanya's ride on domestic demand and new resorts' good position to capture China's travel recovery are key drivers for FTG.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Well Geared Towards Global Travel Recovery

<ul>
<li>The sharp surge in Omicron-driven local cases has driven more stringent measures by local governments. On ground in Shanghai, we see more tightened measures being implemented over the weekend. </li>
<li>The measures will reduce a lot of foot traffic and lower discretionary spending appetite in Mar, and this will negatively weigh on many 1Q22 results to be announced in late-Apr. </li>
<li>We advocate a long staples, short discretionary strategy in the near term. Also, travel sector will be hit, and on net-net basis, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> looks to be a loser.</li>
</ul>


The sharp surge in Omicron-driven local cases has driven more stringent measures by local governments. On ground in Shanghai, we see more tightened measures being implemented over the weekend. 
The measures will reduce a lot of foot traffic and lower discretionary spending appetite in Mar, and this will negatively weigh on many 1Q22 results to be announced in late-Apr. 
We advocate a long staples, short discretionary strategy in the near term. Also, travel sector will be hit, and on net-net basis, Meituan (3690 HK) looks to be a loser.


China on the Ground: Escalating Measures to Combat Omicron and What Stocks Are Impacted?

Hong Kong

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

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Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)

China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

The refined COVID combating measures in China is welcoming and should benefit the consumer discretionary, travel and hospitality and airlines...

Osbert Tang, CFA