Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>freee (44778 JP — US$1.1 billion) is a Japanese developer of cloud accounting software.</li><li>It was founded by a former Google executive called Daisuke (“Dice”) Sasaki, who had also run a start-up.</li><li>Sasaki was shocked at how inefficient accounting processes were at his previous firm and other small- and medium-sized enterprises.</li></ul>

freee (44778 JP — US$1.1 billion) is a Japanese developer of cloud accounting software.It was founded by a former Google executive called Daisuke (“Dice”) Sasaki, who had also run a start-up.Sasaki was shocked at how inefficient accounting processes were at his previous firm and other small- and medium-sized enterprises.

freee (4478 JP): Japanese SME business platform at 3.7x EV/Sales

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Freee reported 1QFY06/2026 results today. 1Q revenues increased 32.1% YoY to ¥9.7bn with an Adj. OPM of ¥690m (vs ¥480m in 1QFY0/2025). Both revenue and GAAP OP beat consensus.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> ’s shares had a sell-off following its 4QFY06/2025 earnings announcement which saw the company breaking away from its recent trend of consecutive quarterly operating profits.</li>
<li>As we highlighted in our previous insight, 4Q decline was only a temporary setback as the company’s profitability has bounced back and we expect earnings momentum to continue.</li>
</ul>


Freee reported 1QFY06/2026 results today. 1Q revenues increased 32.1% YoY to ¥9.7bn with an Adj. OPM of ¥690m (vs ¥480m in 1QFY0/2025). Both revenue and GAAP OP beat consensus.

Freee KK (4478 JP) ’s shares had a sell-off following its 4QFY06/2025 earnings announcement which saw the company breaking away from its recent trend of consecutive quarterly operating profits.
As we highlighted in our previous insight, 4Q decline was only a temporary setback as the company’s profitability has bounced back and we expect earnings momentum to continue.


2025 High Conviction – Freee: Earnings Recovery Is Underway

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a>  reported 4Q and full-year FY06/2025 results last week which disappointed the market leading to a sell-off.</li>
<li>After reporting 3-consecutive quarters of Adj. OP, profitability dipped in 4Q due to higher advertising and D&amp;A costs. However, freee expects to return to profits in the current fiscal year. </li>
<li>Following 4Q results, premium over Money Forward has disappeared and Freee is currently trading at a huge discount to MF which seems unwarranted</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP)  reported 4Q and full-year FY06/2025 results last week which disappointed the market leading to a sell-off.
After reporting 3-consecutive quarters of Adj. OP, profitability dipped in 4Q due to higher advertising and D&amp;A costs. However, freee expects to return to profits in the current fiscal year. 
Following 4Q results, premium over Money Forward has disappeared and Freee is currently trading at a huge discount to MF which seems unwarranted


2025 High Conviction - Freee: 4Q Setback Is Only Temporary

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> reported 3QFY06/2025 results today. Revenue for the quarter was marginally below consensus despite increasing 27% YoY, while GAAP OP beat consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>Due to the tax filing season, freee’s S&amp;M costs tends to be higher during 3Q which led to slightly lower Adj. OP during the quarter. Price revisions have improved ARPU.</li>
<li>Freee’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> mean there is further upside.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 3QFY06/2025 results today. Revenue for the quarter was marginally below consensus despite increasing 27% YoY, while GAAP OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
Due to the tax filing season, freee’s S&amp;M costs tends to be higher during 3Q which led to slightly lower Adj. OP during the quarter. Price revisions have improved ARPU.
Freee’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs Money Forward (3994 JP) mean there is further upside.


High Conviction 2025 - Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> reported 2QFY06/2025 results on Friday which beat consensus estimates. The company also reported a second consecutive quarter of operating profits in 2Q.</li>
<li>Despite cutting down significantly on selling and marketing, freee has managed to maintain growth. The company also has revised upwards its OP guidance and expects positive adj. free cashflows.</li>
<li>Though freee’s share price has moved up 35% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> should further drive share price up.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 2QFY06/2025 results on Friday which beat consensus estimates. The company also reported a second consecutive quarter of operating profits in 2Q.
Despite cutting down significantly on selling and marketing, freee has managed to maintain growth. The company also has revised upwards its OP guidance and expects positive adj. free cashflows.
Though freee’s share price has moved up 35% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs Money Forward (3994 JP) should further drive share price up.


High Conviction 2025 – Freee: Earnings Beat with Upward Revision to Profit Guidance

Japan

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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Freee (4478 JP)

freee (4478 JP): Japanese SME business platform at 3.7x EV/Sales

freee (44778 JP — US$1.1 billion) is a Japanese developer of cloud accounting software. It was founded by a former Google executive called Daisuke

Asian Century Stocks

2025 High Conviction – Freee: Earnings Recovery Is Underway

Freee's 1Q earnings affirm that 4QFY06/2025 setback was only temporary with revenues up 32.1% YoY and strong profits that beat consensus. We...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2025 High Conviction - Freee: 4Q Setback Is Only Temporary

After reporting 3-consecutive quarters of Adj. OP, freee's profitability dipped in 4Q leading to a sell-off. Freee is currently trading at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2025 - Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

freee reported strong results with profits. As we expected, seasonally higher S&M spending for tax filing led to drop in profits. Share price is up...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2025 – Freee: Earnings Beat with Upward Revision to Profit Guidance

freee's 2Q earnings were strong with upward revision to OP guidance. Share price has been up 35% YTD driven by its strengthening profitability...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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freee (4478 JP): Japanese SME business platform at 3.7x EV/Sales

freee (44778 JP — US$1.1 billion) is a Japanese developer of cloud accounting software. It was founded by a former Google executive called Daisuke

Asian Century Stocks

2025 High Conviction – Freee: Earnings Recovery Is Underway

​Freee's 1Q earnings affirm that 4QFY06/2025 setback was only temporary with revenues up 32.1% YoY and strong profits that beat consensus. We...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

2025 High Conviction - Freee: 4Q Setback Is Only Temporary

After reporting 3-consecutive quarters of Adj. OP, freee's profitability dipped in 4Q leading to a sell-off. Freee is currently trading at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2025 - Freee: Robust Business Model Supports Stable Margins; Further Upside Ahead

freee reported strong results with profits. As we expected, seasonally higher S&M spending for tax filing led to drop in profits. Share price is up...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2025 – Freee: Earnings Beat with Upward Revision to Profit Guidance

freee's 2Q earnings were strong with upward revision to OP guidance. Share price has been up 35% YTD driven by its strengthening profitability...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Freee's 1Q earnings affirm that 4QFY06/2025 setback was only temporary with revenues up 32.1% YoY and strong profits that beat consensus. We...