Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Freee reported 4Q and full-year FY06/2022 results. 4Q revenue increased 31.2% YoY to JPY3.87bn (vs consensus JPY3.9bn) while full-year revenue grew 40.2% YoY to JPY14.4bn beating own guidance by 0.2%.</li>
<li>Operating losses decreased to 18.7% of total revenue from 32.5% of revenue in the same period a year ago. Full-year OP. losses were 15.7% of revenue vs guidance 17.1%.</li>
<li>Improvement in profitability was driven by growth in ARPU from mid-and-large paying users.</li>
</ul>


Freee reported 4Q and full-year FY06/2022 results. 4Q revenue increased 31.2% YoY to JPY3.87bn (vs consensus JPY3.9bn) while full-year revenue grew 40.2% YoY to JPY14.4bn beating own guidance by 0.2%.
Operating losses decreased to 18.7% of total revenue from 32.5% of revenue in the same period a year ago. Full-year OP. losses were 15.7% of revenue vs guidance 17.1%.
Improvement in profitability was driven by growth in ARPU from mid-and-large paying users.


Freee: Medium-Term Plan Seems Attainable but Profits to Delay

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> reported 2QFY11/2022 results yesterday. Revenue grew 27.2% YoY to JPY5.08bn (vs consensus JPY5.13bn). Operating losses for the quarter was JPY2.2bn (vs consensus JPY1.9bn).</li>
<li>MF’s top line growth has been slowing down, and the company continues to spend heavily on advertising to acquire users for its SaaS business.</li>
<li>Though MF continues to grow its user base, it comes at the cost of profits.</li>
</ul>



Money Forward (3994 JP) reported 2QFY11/2022 results yesterday. Revenue grew 27.2% YoY to JPY5.08bn (vs consensus JPY5.13bn). Operating losses for the quarter was JPY2.2bn (vs consensus JPY1.9bn).
MF’s top line growth has been slowing down, and the company continues to spend heavily on advertising to acquire users for its SaaS business.
Though MF continues to grow its user base, it comes at the cost of profits.


Money Forward: Growth at the Cost of Profits

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Q2 financial results were in-line or better than management targets but lagged consensus expectations</li>
<li>Guidance for Q3 is slightly disappointing with the target range for revenue mostly below expectations whilst promotional and marketing spend continues to expand</li>
<li>The secular growth story is attractive and operating KPI growth remains robust but investors probably needed more from a stock that trades at 7.5x EV/FY22 rev in a risk-off environment</li>
</ul>


Q2 financial results were in-line or better than management targets but lagged consensus expectations
Guidance for Q3 is slightly disappointing with the target range for revenue mostly below expectations whilst promotional and marketing spend continues to expand
The secular growth story is attractive and operating KPI growth remains robust but investors probably needed more from a stock that trades at 7.5x EV/FY22 rev in a risk-off environment


Money Forward - Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Results Short of Consensus

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/Freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY06/2022 results on Friday. Revenue grew 35.7% YoY to JPY3.65bn (vs consensus JPY3.63bn) driven by strong growth in paying users.</li>
<li>Operating losses declined to 18.5% of revenues during the quarter from 24.0% in the same period a year ago.</li>
<li>The company’s shares moved up by about 9% at the end of Friday’s close following its earnings announcement.</li>
</ul>



freee (4478 JP)  reported 3QFY06/2022 results on Friday. Revenue grew 35.7% YoY to JPY3.65bn (vs consensus JPY3.63bn) driven by strong growth in paying users.
Operating losses declined to 18.5% of revenues during the quarter from 24.0% in the same period a year ago.
The company’s shares moved up by about 9% at the end of Friday’s close following its earnings announcement.


Freee: Strong User Growth and Improvement in Profitability; Shares Are a Lot Cheaper

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional Inc (4194 JP)</a> had raised US$609m in its Japan IPO in April 2021, where it had been priced at the top end after books were reportedly multiple times covered.</li>
<li>Visional is a HR technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. </li>
<li>The Pre-IPO shareholder, YJ2 Investment, will be released from its lockup on 16th Apr 2022, 360 days post-listing.</li>
</ul>



Visional Inc (4194 JP) had raised US$609m in its Japan IPO in April 2021, where it had been priced at the top end after books were reportedly multiple times covered.
Visional is a HR technology company based in Japan. The company operates BizReach, an online recruiting platform that helps to connect professional job seekers to direct employers and third-party recruiters. 
The Pre-IPO shareholder, YJ2 Investment, will be released from its lockup on 16th Apr 2022, 360 days post-listing.


Visional IPO Lock-Up - Shares Have Performed Well, a Small Lock-Up Expiry to Look At

Japan

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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Freee (4478 JP)

Freee: Medium-Term Plan Seems Attainable but Profits to Delay

freee's medium/long-term plan is likely to further impact the company's profitability as it seeks for aggressive user growth. We think the plan is...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward: Growth at the Cost of Profits

MF's revenue and EBIT for 2QFY11/22 fell below consensus. It seems that the top line growth has started decelerating while MF continues to spend...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward - Q2 22 Results Reaction: Mixed Results Short of Consensus

Money Forward Q2 results met or beat its own targets but fell short of a more optimistic consensus. Guidance for Q3 sales also disappoints whilst...

Kirk Boodry

Freee: Strong User Growth and Improvement in Profitability; Shares Are a Lot Cheaper

3Q revenue grew 35.7% YoY driven by strong growth in paying users. freee added more than 57k paying users during the quarter. Freee has a clear...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Visional IPO Lock-Up - Shares Have Performed Well, a Small Lock-Up Expiry to Look At

Visional Inc (4194 JP) had raised US$609m in its Japan IPO in April 2021, and the Pre-IPO shareholder, YJ2 Investment, will be released from its...

Clarence Chu

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