Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Freee reported 4QFY06/23 results today. Revenue increased 39.6% YoY to ¥5.4bn (vs consensus ¥5.32bn) while operating losses increased to ¥3.0bn from ¥724m in 4QFY06/2022 (vs consensus ¥2.5bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> ’s full-year revenues and operating losses were in line with the company’s guidance, and increased losses were due to investments related to growth and customer acquisition.</li>
<li>The company’s medium-term plan expects revenues of more than ¥50.0bn by FY06/2027E and operating profits by FY06/2025E which seems attainable to us.</li>
</ul>


Freee reported 4QFY06/23 results today. Revenue increased 39.6% YoY to ¥5.4bn (vs consensus ¥5.32bn) while operating losses increased to ¥3.0bn from ¥724m in 4QFY06/2022 (vs consensus ¥2.5bn).

Freee KK (4478 JP) ’s full-year revenues and operating losses were in line with the company’s guidance, and increased losses were due to investments related to growth and customer acquisition.
The company’s medium-term plan expects revenues of more than ¥50.0bn by FY06/2027E and operating profits by FY06/2025E which seems attainable to us.


Freee: Earnings in Line With Guidance; Medium-Term Plan Seems Attainable

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genda-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39911:1" rel="noopener">Genda Inc (9166 JP)</a> raised around US$100m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Genda Inc (9166 JP) raised around US$100m in its Japan IPO.
Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan, primarily operating under its Genda GiGO Entertainment subsidiary.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Genda IPO Trading - Stronger Subscription Rates than the Recent Large JP IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a> raised around US$344m in its Japan IPO. The IPO consisted of 100% secondary shares.</li>
<li>Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.</li>
<li>In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Tryt Inc (9164 JP) raised around US$344m in its Japan IPO. The IPO consisted of 100% secondary shares.
Tryt Inc (Tryt) offers employee placement services and temporary staffing services for the elderly care, nursing care and childcare workers segments.
In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Tryt IPO Trading - Subscription Rates Mostly Outdid Recent Large Japan Deals

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Rakuten Securities / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities</a>, the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing.</li>
<li>It is the largest online securities firm in Japan with a 33.7% market share. In FY22, it had over 8.64m accounts, with around JPY18.2tn (US$131bn) of assets under custody.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Securities, the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing.
It is the largest online securities firm in Japan with a 33.7% market share. In FY22, it had over 8.64m accounts, with around JPY18.2tn (US$131bn) of assets under custody.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Rakuten Securities IPO Early Look - The Negatives - Growth Has Slowed Down

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> reported 2QFY11/2023 results yesterday. Revenue increased 43.5% YoY to ¥7.3bn (vs consensus ¥7.18bn) while operating losses dropped to ¥1.58bn vs ¥2.15bn in 2QFY11/22 (vs consensus ¥1.65bn).</li>
<li>2Q revenues were within its guidance of ¥7.1-7.4bn and MF has revised its FY11/23E guidance upward based on the progress made during the first half of the year.</li>
<li>MF’s non-BO business margins continue to decline, and the plan to revise price plans for sole proprietors in December should result in attrition and further increase in advertising spend.</li>
</ul>



Money Forward (3994 JP) reported 2QFY11/2023 results yesterday. Revenue increased 43.5% YoY to ¥7.3bn (vs consensus ¥7.18bn) while operating losses dropped to ¥1.58bn vs ¥2.15bn in 2QFY11/22 (vs consensus ¥1.65bn).
2Q revenues were within its guidance of ¥7.1-7.4bn and MF has revised its FY11/23E guidance upward based on the progress made during the first half of the year.
MF’s non-BO business margins continue to decline, and the plan to revise price plans for sole proprietors in December should result in attrition and further increase in advertising spend.


Money Forward: Non-BO Margin on a Decline and Upcoming Fee Revision to Have Negative Impact

Japan

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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Freee (4478 JP)

Freee: Earnings in Line With Guidance; Medium-Term Plan Seems Attainable

As guided, freee's operating losses have widened during the quarter. Corporate paying users have grown significantly and Mid-term plan aims for...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Genda IPO Trading - Stronger Subscription Rates than the Recent Large JP IPO

Genda Inc (9166 JP) raised around US$100m in its Japan IPO. Genda develops and operates amusement facilities in Japan. In this note we will talk...

Clarence Chu

Tryt IPO Trading - Subscription Rates Mostly Outdid Recent Large Japan Deals

Tryt Inc (9164 JP) raised around US$344m in its Japan IPO. The IPO consisted of 100% secondary shares. In this note we will talk about the trading...

Clarence Chu

Rakuten Securities IPO Early Look - The Negatives - Growth Has Slowed Down

Rakuten Securities, the online securities arm of Rakuten, aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Money Forward: Non-BO Margin on a Decline and Upcoming Fee Revision to Have Negative Impact

MF's 2QFY11/23 earnings beat consensus and own guidance, with a full-year guidance revised upwards. Non-BO business' margin continues to drop and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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