Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Oxley Holdings' ADT surged to S$0.583 million since May, a 10.6× increase, with S$5.3 million profit before tax in 1HFY25.</li><li>UOB-Kay Hian Holdings recorded S$23.09 million net institutional inflow, with P/E ratio rising from 7x to 10x.</li><li>Non-index mid and small cap stocks attracted over S$100 million net institutional inflows since May, led by UOBKH and CSE Global.</li></ul>

Oxley Holdings' ADT surged to S$0.583 million since May, a 10.6× increase, with S$5.3 million profit before tax in 1HFY25.UOB-Kay Hian Holdings recorded S$23.09 million net institutional inflow, with P/E ratio rising from 7x to 10x.Non-index mid and small cap stocks attracted over S$100 million net institutional inflows since May, led by UOBKH and CSE Global.

Mid & Small Cap Surge: Liquidity, Inflows and Big Movers Since May

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.</li>
<li>Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.</li>
<li>Potential passive buying could result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-agri-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1142:1" rel="noopener">Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)</a> outperforming peers in the near term.</li>
</ul>



Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.


Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5051:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Pacific</a> reported a steep decline in profits led by a fall in gross margins and a steep rise in interest costs for the quarter ending 31st Jan 2023.</li>
<li>The company's gearing has risen to 5.8x led by (1) the refinancing of preference shares and expensive debt (2) acquisition of the Kitchen basics brand (3) increased working capital loan.  </li>
<li>Del Monte's precariously bloated debt levels and tighter operating conditions, given inflation-led cost pressures and moderating demand, in the current high-interest rate environment heightens the company's financial risk.</li>
</ul>



Del Monte Pacific reported a steep decline in profits led by a fall in gross margins and a steep rise in interest costs for the quarter ending 31st Jan 2023.
The company's gearing has risen to 5.8x led by (1) the refinancing of preference shares and expensive debt (2) acquisition of the Kitchen basics brand (3) increased working capital loan.  
Del Monte's precariously bloated debt levels and tighter operating conditions, given inflation-led cost pressures and moderating demand, in the current high-interest rate environment heightens the company's financial risk.


Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP): Deep in Debt, Slipping Margins, Rising Rates - Perfect Storm?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Global branded food and beverage outfit <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5051:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP)</a></strong> recently announced group sales grew by 3% to US$68mn in the 3Q23 (April Y/E).</li>
<li>However net profit declined by 62% to US$9.8mn due to lower operating results and increased interest expense from higher cost bank loans.</li>
<li>Del Monte's net debt, net gearing, and net debt/EBITDA were S$2.2bn, 582.5%, and 6.1x, compared to S$1.45bn, 211%, and 4.2x a year ago. </li>
</ul>


Global branded food and beverage outfit Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) recently announced group sales grew by 3% to US$68mn in the 3Q23 (April Y/E).
However net profit declined by 62% to US$9.8mn due to lower operating results and increased interest expense from higher cost bank loans.
Del Monte's net debt, net gearing, and net debt/EBITDA were S$2.2bn, 582.5%, and 6.1x, compared to S$1.45bn, 211%, and 4.2x a year ago. 


Del Monte Pacific: Interest Costs Weigh On Financials

United States

Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. produces and markets bananas, pineapples, deciduous fruit, melons, and other fresh produce and non-produce items.  The Company grows, distributes, transports, and markets its products worldwide.

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Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP US)

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

Mid & Small Cap Surge: Liquidity, Inflows and Big Movers Since May

Oxley Holdings' ADT surged to S$0.583 million since May, a 10.6× increase, with S$5.3 million profit before tax in 1HFY25. UOB-Kay Hian Holdings...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

Golden Agri-Resources has trended lower over the last year and multiples have shrunk and the stock trades cheaper than peers. Passive buying could...

Brian Freitas

Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP): Deep in Debt, Slipping Margins, Rising Rates - Perfect Storm?

Faces heightened financial risk despite seemingly inexpensive earnings multiples. Recovery in margins and cash flow is needed to minimize liquidity...

Devi Subhakesan

Del Monte Pacific: Interest Costs Weigh On Financials

This is not the company to recommend in the midst of the current macroeconomic backdrop. One wonders if the company needs to tap the market for...

David Blennerhassett

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