Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>GBP depreciation and UK mini budget have triggered a spike in volatility to decade highs</li>
<li>Currency vol is trading at extreme levels vs Equity vol offering trade opportunities</li>
<li>FTSE100 is trading cheap and we suggest a smart way to play upside</li>
</ul>


GBP depreciation and UK mini budget have triggered a spike in volatility to decade highs
Currency vol is trading at extreme levels vs Equity vol offering trade opportunities
FTSE100 is trading cheap and we suggest a smart way to play upside


EQD | FTSE100 (UKX Index):  GBPUSD Vol Has Exploded Offering Opportunites to Spread Against FTSE100

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. </li>
<li>Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.</li>
</ul>


Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. 
Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

<ul>
<li>The BHP Board has decided to proceed with the Unification due to the advantages of simplification, strategic flexibility, elimination of DLC dividend arrangement, and elimination of share price differentials. </li>
<li>Since announcement of the Unification, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14531:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton Plc (ADR) (BBL US)</a> discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton (ADR) (BHP US)</a> has narrowed from 16.6% to 1.4% and will reach parity soon.</li>
<li>There will be selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21840:1" rel="noopener">BHP Billiton (BLT LN)</a> from UK Index and STOXX trackers in January, and S&amp;P/ASX trackers will buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>, possibly in 2 tranches. </li>
</ul>


The BHP Board has decided to proceed with the Unification due to the advantages of simplification, strategic flexibility, elimination of DLC dividend arrangement, and elimination of share price differentials. 
Since announcement of the Unification, the BHP Billiton Plc (ADR) (BBL US) discount to BHP Billiton (ADR) (BHP US) has narrowed from 16.6% to 1.4% and will reach parity soon.
There will be selling on BHP Billiton (BLT LN) from UK Index and STOXX trackers in January, and S&amp;P/ASX trackers will buy BHP Group (BHP AU), possibly in 2 tranches. 


BHP Unification: Board Approves; S&P Market Consultation in Progress

Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-48d2d58c-023d-485f-887d-f13ca5f049f6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25197:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-48d2d58c-023d-485f-887d-f13ca5f049f6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25197:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)</a> has announced a simplification of its share structure resulting in an increase in the speed and flexibility of capital actions.</li>
<li>The name of the company will change from Royal Dutch Shell plc to Shell plc.  It's expected that the company will no longer meet conditions to use the 'Royal' designation.</li>
<li>The proposed structure will help in conducting buybacks and there could be a quick shareholder payout following the US$7bn sale of Shell's Permian assets in the US.</li>
</ul>



Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA)/ Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA NA) has announced a simplification of its share structure resulting in an increase in the speed and flexibility of capital actions.
The name of the company will change from Royal Dutch Shell plc to Shell plc.  It's expected that the company will no longer meet conditions to use the 'Royal' designation.
The proposed structure will help in conducting buybacks and there could be a quick shareholder payout following the US$7bn sale of Shell's Permian assets in the US.


Shell Plc - No Longer Royal Post Simplification

On 11 June, Unilever announced that it was looking to unify its group legal structure under a single parent company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22197:1" rel="noopener">Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)</a>, "creating a simpler company with greater strategic flexibility, that is better positioned for future success".The Dutch shareholders approved the unification on 21 September with 99.39% of the shares voted in favour, while the UK shareholders approved the proposal on 12 October with over 99% of the shares voted in favour.There is still one potential hurdle to the unification in the Departure Tax (GroenLinks initiative bill) being proposed by the GreenLeft Party in the Netherlands that could cost Unilever up to €11bn if it left the Netherlands.If the unification does go through, there will be an impact of passive fund activity on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21141:1" rel="noopener">Unilever NV (UNA NA)</a>, but the bigger impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22197:1" rel="noopener">Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)</a>. We estimate the net impact of the unification will see around US$3bn of passive money flow into the stock.In this Insight, we take a look at some of the details around the unification before jumping into the impact on the stocks and the possible spread between the two lines prior to unification.

On 11 June, Unilever announced that it was looking to unify its group legal structure under a single parent company, Unilever PLC (ULVR LN), "creating a simpler company with greater strategic flexibility, that is better positioned for future success".The Dutch shareholders approved the unification on 21 September with 99.39% of the shares voted in favour, while the UK shareholders approved the proposal on 12 October with over 99% of the shares voted in favour.There is still one potential hurdle to the unification in the Departure Tax (GroenLinks initiative bill) being proposed by the GreenLeft Party in the Netherlands that could cost Unilever up to €11bn if it left the Netherlands.If the unification does go through, there will be an impact of passive fund activity on Unilever NV (UNA NA), but the bigger impact will be on Unilever PLC (ULVR LN). We estimate the net impact of the unification will see around US$3bn of passive money flow into the stock.In this Insight, we take a look at some of the details around the unification before jumping into the impact on the stocks and the possible spread between the two lines prior to unification.

United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. The equities use an investibility weighting in the index calculation. The index was developed with a base level of 1000 as of December 30, 1983. 

UKX Index (UKX INDEX)

EQD | FTSE100 (UKX Index): GBPUSD Vol Has Exploded Offering Opportunites to Spread Against FTSE100

A look at the recent turmoil in the UK, analyisng the volatility spike of the Pound relative to the FTSE 100. We look at two ways to play the spread.

Simon Harris

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

We estimate a fair value of 240.73 DIPS for the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures after adjusting for CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com. We would be sellers of the...

Brian Freitas

BHP Unification: Board Approves; S&P Market Consultation in Progress

The BHP Board has approved the Unification and the UK line could stop trading on 28 January. The UK line will see selling from UK Index and STOXX...

Brian Freitas

Shell Plc - No Longer Royal Post Simplification

Royal Dutch Shell is simplifying its share structure by merging its Class A and Class B shares and changing its name to Shell plc. The...

Brian Freitas

Unilever Unification - Index Impact

With the Unilever unification of the PLC and NV lines approved by the Dutch and British shareholders, we take a look at the spread between the two...

Brian Freitas