Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

The markets’ response to the February sell-off has been poor, producing in many cases what looks like a bear market rally.  Europe in particular contains a number of toppy patterns, which have begun to break downwards, and the sharp drop in the FANG stocks could also be part of top-building.  We came into 2018 looking for the end of the post-2009 bull market, and a number of indices are signalling just that.

The markets’ response to the February sell-off has been poor, producing in many cases what looks like a bear market rally.  Europe in particular contains a number of toppy patterns, which have begun to break downwards, and the sharp drop in the FANG stocks could also be part of top-building.  We came into 2018 looking for the end of the post-2009 bull market, and a number of indices are signalling just that.

S&P 500: A Dozen Reasons for Not Being Too Complacent Here

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK GDP growth increased to 0.4% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast but 0.1pp above the consensus. Services didn’t grow as fast in August, but the July fall was trimmed along with volatility around the post-Brexit trend.</li>
<li>This outcome exceeded the BoE’s forecast from August but was probably in line with what they expected ahead of the release. It at least presents no reason to abort the rate hike widely expected for November, including by me.</li>
</ul>UK Q3 GDP exceeded the…


UK GDP growth increased to 0.4% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast but 0.1pp above the consensus. Services didn’t grow as fast in August, but the July fall was trimmed along with volatility around the post-Brexit trend.
This outcome exceeded the BoE’s forecast from August but was probably in line with what they expected ahead of the release. It at least presents no reason to abort the rate hike widely expected for November, including by me.
UK Q3 GDP exceeded the…

FLASH: UK GDP Acceleration Leaves BoE on Track

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The UK investment management industry is, from a variety of perspectives, an important industry. With the Brexit clock now ticking, is there huge uncertainty ahead or is the industry largely secure? Can investment managers get on with their business or should they put their plans on hold for the next 23 months until the future becomes clearer?There are “experts” pointing in both directions. This article examines sources of income for UK investment managers to establish the extent of any risk and will also consider the position of investment managers in the U.S.

The UK investment management industry is, from a variety of perspectives, an important industry. With the Brexit clock now ticking, is there huge uncertainty ahead or is the industry largely secure? Can investment managers get on with their business or should they put their plans on hold for the next 23 months until the future becomes clearer?There are “experts” pointing in both directions. This article examines sources of income for UK investment managers to establish the extent of any risk and will also consider the position of investment managers in the U.S.

UK Investment Managers: Any Reason to Be Frightened by Brexit? A Legal Update from Dechert

<ul><li>The BoE’s Inflation Report delivered a dovish surprise with its downgraded inflation forecasts, but the GDP growth side was scarcely touched. Exports are assumed to offset slightly weaker consumption, which seems overly optimistic.</li><li>A rapid recovery in wage growth continues to be forecast, despite the persistent disappointment. A flatter Phillips curve may be partly to blame. If the BoE adopts a flatter relationship, tolerance for temporary inflation overshoots would rise.</li><li>My view remains more dovish than current MPC guidance, but also slightly more hawkish than prevailing market pricing, including around relative neutral rates.</li></ul>

The BoE’s Inflation Report delivered a dovish surprise with its downgraded inflation forecasts, but the GDP growth side was scarcely touched. Exports are assumed to offset slightly weaker consumption, which seems overly optimistic.A rapid recovery in wage growth continues to be forecast, despite the persistent disappointment. A flatter Phillips curve may be partly to blame. If the BoE adopts a flatter relationship, tolerance for temporary inflation overshoots would rise.My view remains more dovish than current MPC guidance, but also slightly more hawkish than prevailing market pricing, including around relative neutral rates.

United Kingdom

The FTSE 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. The equities use an investibility weighting in the index calculation. The index was developed with a base level of 1000 as of December 30, 1983. 

UKX Index (UKX INDEX)

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: A Dozen Reasons for Not Being Too Complacent Here

The markets’ response to the February sell-off has been poor, producing in many cases what looks like a bear market rally. Europe in particular...

Peter Beuttell

FLASH: UK GDP Acceleration Leaves BoE on Track

UK GDP growth increased to 0.4% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast but 0.1pp above the consensus. Services didn’t...

Phil Rush

UK Investment Managers: Any Reason to Be Frightened by Brexit? A Legal Update from Dechert

The UK investment management industry is, from a variety of perspectives, an important industry. With the Brexit clock now ticking, is there huge...

Dechert LLP

BoE: Stuck in a Bullish Sweet Spot

The BoE’s Inflation Report delivered a dovish surprise with its downgraded inflation forecasts, but the GDP growth side was scarcely touched....

Phil Rush