Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.</li><li>The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.</li><li>Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! </li></ul>

We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! 

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. </li>
<li>Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.</li>
<li>SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.</li>
</ul>


US equities were on a tear last week. Asian equities were buoyant but less muted. 
Commodity majors were on a retreat. Gold, Silver, Oil, and Copper retreated on geopolitical conflicts that appears to be contained.
SLOOS reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial  loans to firms of all sizes over the third quarter.


[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>HSI has been our top short bet where we locked in some short gains at 18,100/300 and now see this bounce as an opportunity to re set the HSI short.</li>
<li>Underlying weakness in China A shares sets the tone for HK.</li>
<li>Trend and price resistance at 19,300/500 stand out as a key turn zone with a little help from an SPX give back sequence.</li>
</ul>


HSI has been our top short bet where we locked in some short gains at 18,100/300 and now see this bounce as an opportunity to re set the HSI short.
Underlying weakness in China A shares sets the tone for HK.
Trend and price resistance at 19,300/500 stand out as a key turn zone with a little help from an SPX give back sequence.


FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A50 sell res near 14,100. Hard down close followed by 3% squeeze needs some digestion off of dual MA support. Our take is to sell strength.</li>
<li>HSI is trading heavy after a muted bounce with 19,600 targeted and remains our top short.</li>
<li>SPX needs a nudge and firm close below 4,080 to induce downside momentum and tip the global cycle.</li>
</ul>


A50 sell res near 14,100. Hard down close followed by 3% squeeze needs some digestion off of dual MA support. Our take is to sell strength.
HSI is trading heavy after a muted bounce with 19,600 targeted and remains our top short.
SPX needs a nudge and firm close below 4,080 to induce downside momentum and tip the global cycle.


Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 30th November we proposed a restructure of a bullish FXI US trade</li>
<li>Since then FXI US has rallied 12% and implied vols have decreased significantly</li>
<li>We evaluate the call ladder that we highlighted and consider what to do next</li>
</ul>


On 30th November we proposed a restructure of a bullish FXI US trade
Since then FXI US has rallied 12% and implied vols have decreased significantly
We evaluate the call ladder that we highlighted and consider what to do next


EQD | FXI (FXI US): - Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Follow Up

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the...

Steno Research

[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

Each Monday, we take stock of key news in markets across major economies & firms. US equity markets rallied strongly while commodity majors...

Mint Finance

A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color

A50 sell resistance near 14,100. Hard down close followed by 3% squeeze needs some digestion off of dual MA support. Our take is to sell strength....

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | FXI (FXI US): - Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Follow Up

A revisit of the FXI US Call Ladder that we mentioned in November. We look at the spot and implied vol move since then and consider what trade...

Simon Harris

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the...

Steno Research

[TW2] The Week That Was in Markets in 11 Charts (W/E 11th Nov 2023)

Each Monday, we take stock of key news in markets across major economies & firms. US equity markets rallied strongly while commodity majors...

Mint Finance

HSI Trailing A Share Weakness

HSI has been our top short bet where we locked in some short gains at 18,100/300 and now see this bounce as an opportunity to re set the HSI short.

Thomas Schroeder

A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color

A50 sell resistance near 14,100. Hard down close followed by 3% squeeze needs some digestion off of dual MA support. Our take is to sell strength....

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | FXI (FXI US): - Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Follow Up

A revisit of the FXI US Call Ladder that we mentioned in November. We look at the spot and implied vol move since then and consider what trade...

Simon Harris