Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Technical Analysis

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

China A shares remains a bullish bet on dips and able to weather speed bumps in the global cycle.Our HK short is meeting downside targets where we want to layer out of our short and into a long for a tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim.Taiwan call to transition from long to short at the top of the rising wedge is unfolding. We like building a short into the outlined top zone. Taiwan was the next line to short/roll over following leads in Nikkei, HK, India.Weakening signals and breadth splinters in Asia a warning for a bigger cycle peak brewing in the global cycle.

China A shares remains a bullish bet on dips and able to weather speed bumps in the global cycle.Our HK short is meeting downside targets where we want to layer out of our short and into a long for a tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim.Taiwan call to transition from long to short at the top of the rising wedge is unfolding. We like building a short into the outlined top zone. Taiwan was the next line to short/roll over following leads in Nikkei, HK, India.Weakening signals and breadth splinters in Asia a warning for a bigger cycle peak brewing in the global cycle.

Hong Kong Short Reduce - Taiwan Add to Short on Strength

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on April 2, 2021 released finalized new capital standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that the need for banking  crisis liquidation plans; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value.

*D-SIB Standards Released: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and China Bank and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) on April 2, 2021 released finalized new capital standards for the country’s domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), and indicated that the need for banking  crisis liquidation plans; and* Aggressive Capital Raises Expected: In our view, the forthcoming regulations are likely to focus on: additional paid-in capital; leverage ratios; risk concentrations; corporate governance; disclosure levels; and mechanism to prevent systemic risk; and internal controls. The idea is to finally strengthen mainland Chinese bank balance sheets and improve their loss absorption capacity. Problem for equity raises is that P/BV must be over 1.0x for the raise and many of the potential D-SIBs are trading below book value. 

China Banks – Big Capital Raises Coming

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. The bigger concern stems from the A50 break below trendline that will haunt risk in Asia in Q2 after a recovery rise in April to test the underside of that trendline level.We must also factor in the bull SPX cycle toward 4,050 into mid April.Tactical short strength with intermediate lows taking shape for Hong Kong  near HSI 27,000.RSI bull wedge formation are maturing to imply HK will become a rotation long bet once we see a rally in Korea get lift off at the expense of Japan.

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. The bigger concern stems from the A50 break below trendline that will haunt risk in Asia in Q2 after a recovery rise in April to test the underside of that trendline level.We must also factor in the bull SPX cycle toward 4,050 into mid April.Tactical short strength with intermediate lows taking shape for Hong Kong  near HSI 27,000.RSI bull wedge formation are maturing to imply HK will become a rotation long bet once we see a rally in Korea get lift off at the expense of Japan.

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Lighting has struck again, not five months since his hiring, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Agbal has now been dismissed for raising interest rates. President Erdogan handpicked Sahap Kavcioglu as new CBT Governor. He is the fourth CBT Governor in two years, and a banking professor and newspaper columnist who has argued for lower interest rates, after serving a a lawmaker in Erdogan’s AKP party. We all know what happens when academics are in charge; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and the potential for a TRL gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Lighting has struck again, not five months since his hiring, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Agbal has now been dismissed for raising interest rates. President Erdogan handpicked Sahap Kavcioglu as new CBT Governor. He is the fourth CBT Governor in two years, and a banking professor and newspaper columnist who has argued for lower interest rates, after serving a a lawmaker in Erdogan’s AKP party. We all know what happens when academics are in charge; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and the potential for a TRL gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

*Yield Steepening Likely Leads To FRB Action: The recent turmoil in the US bond market has now led to expectations that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) may announce interest rate policy tweaks as soon as its next meeting on March 16th. The FRB appears to seek inflation, and the question would appear to be when (not if) the FRB will become more aggressive in preventing the long end of the curve from further steepening; and*Watch Your Financial Positions: Coupled with a rapid economic recovery  - especially given the US lead with vaccination rollouts, the steep yield curve has led to YTD US financial sector outperformance. However, if the FRB begins flattening the yield curve, sentiment is likely to quickly turn. As such, near-term caution for financials is likely warranted ahead of next FRB meeting as the recent bond market volatility is likely to force the FRB’s hand on Yield Curve Control (YCC).

*Yield Steepening Likely Leads To FRB Action: The recent turmoil in the US bond market has now led to expectations that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) may announce interest rate policy tweaks as soon as its next meeting on March 16th. The FRB appears to seek inflation, and the question would appear to be when (not if) the FRB will become more aggressive in preventing the long end of the curve from further steepening; and*Watch Your Financial Positions: Coupled with a rapid economic recovery  - especially given the US lead with vaccination rollouts, the steep yield curve has led to YTD US financial sector outperformance. However, if the FRB begins flattening the yield curve, sentiment is likely to quickly turn. As such, near-term caution for financials is likely warranted ahead of next FRB meeting as the recent bond market volatility is likely to force the FRB’s hand on Yield Curve Control (YCC).

Federal Reserve Board – Doing The Twist

China

The FTSE China A50 Index includes the largest 50 A Share Chinese companies by total market cap. 

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)

Hong Kong Short Reduce - Taiwan Add to Short on Strength

HK short is meeting downside targets to turn from short to long - tactical bounce cycle but the macro picture remains dim. Taiwan call to...

Thomas Schroeder

China Banks – Big Capital Raises Coming

CHINA BANKS: The PBOC and CBIRC released finalized new capital standards for the country’s D-SIBs. Equity raises require P/BV over 1.0x and many of...

Thomas J. Monaco

HK Digging for a Fresh Low

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. Bigger concern stems from the A50 trendline break that...

Thomas Schroeder

Turkey - YELP!

TURKEY: Not five months since his hiring, the CBT Governor has been replaced. The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and a TRL gray market would NOT be...

Thomas J. Monaco

Federal Reserve Board – Doing The Twist

FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD: There are expectations of FRB interest rate policy tweaks as soon as its next meeting. If the FRB flattens the curve,...

Thomas J. Monaco