HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Fu Shou Yuan International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The sharp decline in revenue/profits indicates that Fu Shou Yuan’s business model is not as excellent as previously imagined. The Company’s performance would still be heavily influenced by macro factors.</li>
<li>Once Fu Shou Yuan slows down external expansion and explores endogenous growth, it usually doesn't require too much capital, which means the Company would have greater motivation to distribute dividends.</li>
<li>The economic downturn leading to performance headwinds is just short-term logic. In the long run, the logic behind the increasing demand in funeral industry has not changed. Valuation would rebound.</li>
</ul>


The sharp decline in revenue/profits indicates that Fu Shou Yuan’s business model is not as excellent as previously imagined. The Company’s performance would still be heavily influenced by macro factors.
Once Fu Shou Yuan slows down external expansion and explores endogenous growth, it usually doesn't require too much capital, which means the Company would have greater motivation to distribute dividends.
The economic downturn leading to performance headwinds is just short-term logic. In the long run, the logic behind the increasing demand in funeral industry has not changed. Valuation would rebound.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - The Business Model Has "Flaws"

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)</a> is likely to declare a special dividend in its FY23 result announcement as indicated in its board meeting notification.</li>
<li>Net cash at end-1H23 amounted to 14.5% of its current share price, providing room for imagination of the amount of special dividends. </li>
<li>Besides raising its yield, returning excess cash should raise its ROE. This will also demonstrate the management's confidence on the outlook and its financial position.</li>
</ul>



Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) is likely to declare a special dividend in its FY23 result announcement as indicated in its board meeting notification.
Net cash at end-1H23 amounted to 14.5% of its current share price, providing room for imagination of the amount of special dividends. 
Besides raising its yield, returning excess cash should raise its ROE. This will also demonstrate the management's confidence on the outlook and its financial position.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Proposing a Special Dividend

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international">Fu Shou Yuan</a> is the largest death care provider in China, a market with significant long-term growth potential driven by a rapidly aging population.</li>
  <li>The company faces considerable headwinds from recent regulatory changes aimed at increasing price transparency and reinforcing the non-profit nature of basic funeral services, which could pressure historically high margins.</li>
  <li>Despite a sharp decline in recent financial performance attributed to a high base effect and cautious consumer spending, the company maintains a strong balance sheet and has a generous dividend policy, though its sustainability may be questioned.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Fu Shou Yuan is the largest death care provider in China, a market with significant long-term growth potential driven by a rapidly aging population.
  The company faces considerable headwinds from recent regulatory changes aimed at increasing price transparency and reinforcing the non-profit nature of basic funeral services, which could pressure historically high margins.
  Despite a sharp decline in recent financial performance attributed to a high base effect and cautious consumer spending, the company maintains a strong balance sheet and has a generous dividend policy, though its sustainability may be questioned.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) - Apr 2026

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

<ul>
<li>Our positive calls on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> and negative call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-environment-protection-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4827:1" rel="noopener">Conch Environment (587 HK)</a> have generated the best wins in 2022.</li>
<li>These calls achieved returns of 56.8%, 34.2% and 43.5%, respectively, which we think are remarkable given the losses of 16.3% for HSI and 19.3% for HSCEI YTD.</li>
<li>In 2023, we expect Fu Shou Yuan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener"></a>continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. It may be prudent to take some profit on Air China. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener"></a> </li>
</ul>


Our positive calls on Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) and Air China Ltd (753 HK) and negative call on Conch Environment (587 HK) have generated the best wins in 2022.
These calls achieved returns of 56.8%, 34.2% and 43.5%, respectively, which we think are remarkable given the losses of 16.3% for HSI and 19.3% for HSCEI YTD.
In 2023, we expect Fu Shou Yuan continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. It may be prudent to take some profit on Air China.  


Our Three Best Calls in 2022: Review and Outlook for 2023

China

Fu Shou Yuan International provides burial and funeral services, along with other related services, across the People's Republic of China. Its core activities include selling burial plots, offering cemetery maintenance, and planning and hosting funeral arrangements. The company also manufactures and sells cremation devices and provides education services. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK)

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - The Business Model Has "Flaws"

Fu Shou Yuan's performance decline reveals business model flaws. Despite short-term headwinds, future demand in funeral industry signal potential...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Proposing a Special Dividend

Fu Shou Yuan may declare a special dividend in FY23. With net cash at 14.5% of the share price, there is room for higher dividends, boosting yield...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) - Apr 2026

Fu Shou Yuan is the largest death care provider in China, a market with significant long-term growth potential driven by a rapidly aging...

αSK Primers

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Our Three Best Calls in 2022: Review and Outlook for 2023

In 2023, we expect share prices of Fu Shou Yuan to continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. For Air China, given rich...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) - The Business Model Has "Flaws"

​Fu Shou Yuan's performance decline reveals business model flaws. Despite short-term headwinds, future demand in funeral industry signal potential...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Proposing a Special Dividend

​Fu Shou Yuan may declare a special dividend in FY23. With net cash at 14.5% of the share price, there is room for higher dividends, boosting yield...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) - Apr 2026

Fu Shou Yuan is the largest death care provider in China, a market with significant long-term growth potential driven by a rapidly aging...

αSK Primers

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Our Three Best Calls in 2022: Review and Outlook for 2023

In 2023, we expect share prices of Fu Shou Yuan to continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. For Air China, given rich...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fu Shou Yuan's performance decline reveals business model flaws. Despite short-term headwinds, future demand in funeral industry signal potential...

Fu Shou Yuan may declare a special dividend in FY23. With net cash at 14.5% of the share price, there is room for higher dividends, boosting yield...