Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a positive outlook is warranted. Support levels to watch include $75 on ACWI-US, $44 on ACWX-US, $41 on EEM-US, and $60 on EFA-US. We recap significant technical levels across major markets and highlight specific opportunities within the Technology and Materials Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Stoxx Europe Small 200 Price Eur / Technical Analysis

Stoxx Europe Small 200 Price Eur (SCXP INDEX)

With further consolidation likely for the broad indexes, we want to stick with areas of the market that have shown an ability to outperform despite the broader consolidation. For that we are returning to Technology and Services. Roughly half of today’s individual stock recommendations are domiciled in Japan, while the remainder hail from India and Russia.

With further consolidation likely for the broad indexes, we want to stick with areas of the market that have shown an ability to outperform despite the broader consolidation. For that we are returning to Technology and Services. Roughly half of today’s individual stock recommendations are domiciled in Japan, while the remainder hail from India and Russia.

Global Equity Strategy U.S. Fed Cut, Now What?

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Just under 3 weeks ago, Reuters carried an article saying EQT was considering making a bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>. The stock  popped, then drifted higher.  </li>
<li>Today, that bid was launched. Kakaku.com agreed, supports, and recommends at ¥3,000 which is about 10x Adjusted EV/EBITDA for March 2028. Not super rich with such high growth.</li>
<li>Digital Garage+KDDI own 38% between them. Oasis owns 19%. There are fiduciary out clauses and the docs note that Bain+LY Corp brought in a last minute bid. This isn't done.</li>
</ul>


Just under 3 weeks ago, Reuters carried an article saying EQT was considering making a bid for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP). The stock  popped, then drifted higher.  
Today, that bid was launched. Kakaku.com agreed, supports, and recommends at ¥3,000 which is about 10x Adjusted EV/EBITDA for March 2028. Not super rich with such high growth.
Digital Garage+KDDI own 38% between them. Oasis owns 19%. There are fiduciary out clauses and the docs note that Bain+LY Corp brought in a last minute bid. This isn't done.


[Japan M&A] EQT Launches TOB on Kakaku.Com (2371) But This Isn't A Done Deal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>CVC has increased its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> offer by 23.2% to JPY3,105, a 0.2% premium to KKR’s potential JPY3,100 offer and a 1.7% discount to the last close.</li>
<li>The Board recommends CVC's offer due to its higher price, acceptable financing, enhanced value plan, and shorter timelines. The Board has terminated discussions with KKR. </li>
<li>KKR could return with a revised and potentially hostile offer. However, the probability is low, as its current offer resulted from an auction.  </li>
</ul>


CVC has increased its Mandom Corp (4917 JP) offer by 23.2% to JPY3,105, a 0.2% premium to KKR’s potential JPY3,100 offer and a 1.7% discount to the last close.
The Board recommends CVC's offer due to its higher price, acceptable financing, enhanced value plan, and shorter timelines. The Board has terminated discussions with KKR. 
KKR could return with a revised and potentially hostile offer. However, the probability is low, as its current offer resulted from an auction.  


Mandom (4917 JP): CVC Outbids and Outmanoeuvres KKR

Japan

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

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Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance remains higher for global equities (MSCI ACWI). As long as...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy U.S. Fed Cut, Now What?

With further consolidation likely for the broad indexes, we want to stick with areas of the market that have shown an ability to outperform despite...

Vermilion Research

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A] EQT Launches TOB on Kakaku.Com (2371) But This Isn't A Done Deal

EQT bids for Kakaku.com. Bain+LY have put in a late bid, same price. DG and KDDI have agreed and DG will reinvest BUT they both have tight...

Travis Lundy

Mandom (4917 JP): CVC Outbids and Outmanoeuvres KKR

The Board recommends CVC's offer due to its higher price, acceptable financing, enhanced value plan, and shorter timelines. KKR could return with a...

Arun George

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