Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively</li>
<li>Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) continues to test major support at $90.50-$91.50, though no decisive break yet; as long as this support area holds, we remain constructive on global equities.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to test $37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively
Remain overweight and add exposure to Japan; the TOPIX remains in a 1.5-year RS uptrend (vs. MSCI ACWI), and continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215


Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following a couple of investor-activism campaigns against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, Singapore-based Japan-focused activist investor, 3D-Investment-Partners seems to be turning its attention towards Sapporo.</li>
<li>Earlier this month, 3D Investment Partners requested Sapporo’s outside directors to postpone the announcement of the new Medium Term Plan until they hear out opinions and new ideas from shareholders.</li>
<li>We believe that there’s a chance that 3D Investment Partners could turn hostile as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a> seems to be completely ignoring the activist investor’s requests and proposals.</li>
</ul>


Following a couple of investor-activism campaigns against Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Singapore-based Japan-focused activist investor, 3D-Investment-Partners seems to be turning its attention towards Sapporo.
Earlier this month, 3D Investment Partners requested Sapporo’s outside directors to postpone the announcement of the new Medium Term Plan until they hear out opinions and new ideas from shareholders.
We believe that there’s a chance that 3D Investment Partners could turn hostile as Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP) seems to be completely ignoring the activist investor’s requests and proposals.


Sapporo Holdings: Activist Investor, 3D Investment Partners Is Just A Few Steps From Turning Hostile

Ishares Global Consumer Disc / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.
Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.


Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.</li>
<li>If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.
If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.


Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Japan

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

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Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to Japan; Buys in Insurance, Services, Tech, Staples, Utilities

Remain Overweight and Add Exposure to #Japan; $TOPIX continues to hold above 5-month support at 2200-2215. Next down supports being tested at 4000...

Vermilion Research

Sapporo Holdings: Activist Investor, 3D Investment Partners Is Just A Few Steps From Turning Hostile

Earlier this month, 3D Investment Partners requested Sapporo’s outside directors to postpone the announcement of the new Medium Term Plan until...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Starting to see positive signals that suggest downside is limited from here. Still, we need to see reversals of YTD downtrends on $ACWI $ACWX $EFA...

Vermilion Research

Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

We're starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially or are breaking, and the Energy $XLE and...

Vermilion Research

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

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