HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The IPO pricing of BUSY MING is attractive. P/E of 20-30x is an acceptable valuation range in the short term. The IPO pricing leaves certain upside potential for stock price.</li>
<li>The profit situation of the franchisees is not optimistic. The rate of store closures is increasing. This makes us start to worry about the sustainability of BUSY MING's franchise model.</li>
<li>The current high growth may not be sustainable.BUSY MING clearly hopes to successfully IPO during the current peak period of performance, but investors may face performance decline in the future.</li>
</ul>


The IPO pricing of BUSY MING is attractive. P/E of 20-30x is an acceptable valuation range in the short term. The IPO pricing leaves certain upside potential for stock price.
The profit situation of the franchisees is not optimistic. The rate of store closures is increasing. This makes us start to worry about the sustainability of BUSY MING's franchise model.
The current high growth may not be sustainable.BUSY MING clearly hopes to successfully IPO during the current peak period of performance, but investors may face performance decline in the future.


Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>The revenue growth being higher than the GMV growth in 25Q1-Q3 indicates that BUSY MING’s control over channels and supply chains as well as its bargaining power are strengthening.</li>
<li>BUSY MING’s business model has a low tolerance for errors. Upstream cost increase, downstream price wars, or decline in operational efficiency would break through the already thin profit barrier.</li>
<li>BUSY MING’s valuation should be lower than Pop Mart, but may be slightly higher or on par with MINISO, and in the same range as Wanchen. 20-30x P/E is acceptable.</li>
</ul>


The revenue growth being higher than the GMV growth in 25Q1-Q3 indicates that BUSY MING’s control over channels and supply chains as well as its bargaining power are strengthening.
BUSY MING’s business model has a low tolerance for errors. Upstream cost increase, downstream price wars, or decline in operational efficiency would break through the already thin profit barrier.
BUSY MING’s valuation should be lower than Pop Mart, but may be slightly higher or on par with MINISO, and in the same range as Wanchen. 20-30x P/E is acceptable.


Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (1768 HK)</a> is a food and beverage retailer in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/busy-ming-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:217547" rel="noopener">Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) is a food and beverage retailer in China. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million.
I previously discussed the IPO in Busy Ming IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive.


Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/busy-ming-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45154:1" rel="noopener">Busy Ming Group (BMG HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$430m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China. Stores are typically located in high-traffic, high visibility, and easily accessible street-side locations.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



Busy Ming Group (BMG HK) is looking to raise up to US$430m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China. Stores are typically located in high-traffic, high visibility, and easily accessible street-side locations.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.


Aequitas: Busy Ming Pre-IPO- Priced at a Discount to Peers

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Busy Ming Group, a founder-led food and beverage chain retailer in China with strong presence in third- and lower-tier cities, filed the updated Application Proof in October.</li>
<li>In the six months ended Jun-25, the company’s revenue was ~RMB28,124m, representing a year-over-year growth of ~87%. LTM net profit was ~RMB2,025m.</li>
<li>Busy Ming Group enjoys superior growth profile coupled with improving gross profit margins. The company ended Aug-25 with RMB3,393m net cash on the balance sheet.  </li>
</ul>


Busy Ming Group, a founder-led food and beverage chain retailer in China with strong presence in third- and lower-tier cities, filed the updated Application Proof in October.
In the six months ended Jun-25, the company’s revenue was ~RMB28,124m, representing a year-over-year growth of ~87%. LTM net profit was ~RMB2,025m.
Busy Ming Group enjoys superior growth profile coupled with improving gross profit margins. The company ended Aug-25 with RMB3,393m net cash on the balance sheet.  


Busy Ming IPO Update: Cash-Generating Machine With Improving Gross Margins, IPO Is on the Horizon

China

Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Group Co.,Ltd. operates edible fungus cultivation businesses. The Company provides edible fungi factory cultivation, research and development, packaging, sales, deep processing, and other services. Fujian Wanchen Biotech nology also conducts leisure agriculture tourism businesses.

Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Group (300972 CH)

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Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Group (300972 CH)

Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

BUSY MING's attractive IPO pricing leaves upside potential, but concerns arise over franchisee profits and sustainability of growth model....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

BUSY MING's IPO pricing is HK$229.6-236.6/share, with market value of HK$49.16-50.7bn. If based on our 2025, 2026, 2027 profit forecast, P/E would...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Busy Ming has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the...

Arun George

Aequitas: Busy Ming Pre-IPO- Priced at a Discount to Peers

Busy Ming plans to raise $430m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China with stores in prime locations....

Nicholas Tan

Busy Ming IPO Update: Cash-Generating Machine With Improving Gross Margins, IPO Is on the Horizon

Busy Ming Group is expected to IPO in Hong Kong soon. In my insight, I discuss in-depth analysis of business and operating metrics, IPO valuation...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Busy Ming Group (1768 HK) IPO - Thoughts on Valuation and the Outlook

​BUSY MING's attractive IPO pricing leaves upside potential, but concerns arise over franchisee profits and sustainability of growth model....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

BUSY MING's IPO pricing is HK$229.6-236.6/share, with market value of HK$49.16-50.7bn. If based on our 2025, 2026, 2027 profit forecast, P/E would...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Busy Ming (1768 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Busy Ming has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$428 million. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the...

Arun George

Aequitas: Busy Ming Pre-IPO- Priced at a Discount to Peers

​Busy Ming plans to raise $430m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China with stores in prime locations....

Nicholas Tan

Busy Ming IPO Update: Cash-Generating Machine With Improving Gross Margins, IPO Is on the Horizon

Busy Ming Group is expected to IPO in Hong Kong soon. In my insight, I discuss in-depth analysis of business and operating metrics, IPO valuation...

Andrei Zakharov

BUSY MING's attractive IPO pricing leaves upside potential, but concerns arise over franchisee profits and sustainability of growth model....

Busy Ming plans to raise $430m in its Hong Kong IPO. It is a rapidly growing food and beverage retailer in China with stores in prime locations....