IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 31 October, in response to an FT article, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> confirmed that it has received a preliminary non-binding proposal, which the special committee is reviewing.</li>
<li>Fujitec’s shareholder register and relative underperformance compared to its Japanese peers make it ripe for a bid. Potential bidders could include PE and trade buyers.</li>
<li>The TK Elevator takeout multiple would imply a Fujitec offer price of JPY6,100-7,500, a 10.2%-35.6% premium to the last close of JPY5,533.</li>
</ul>


On 31 October, in response to an FT article, Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) confirmed that it has received a preliminary non-binding proposal, which the special committee is reviewing.
Fujitec’s shareholder register and relative underperformance compared to its Japanese peers make it ripe for a bid. Potential bidders could include PE and trade buyers.
The TK Elevator takeout multiple would imply a Fujitec offer price of JPY6,100-7,500, a 10.2%-35.6% premium to the last close of JPY5,533.


Fujitec (6406 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 30 October, an FT <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d237189f-d372-474d-981e-c1d3b32c3c8c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> appeared which pushed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> shares sharply higher. The headline? <em>"Japanese lift maker Fujitec explores sale to private equity"</em>
</li>
<li>The next day, mid-day, Fujitec "<a href="https://www.fujitec.com/uploads/2024/10/241031_hodo_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corrected</a>" the record, saying the articles (FT and others, presumably) contained "inaccuracies", including that "Fujitec is working to find a buyer."</li>
<li>They mention they have received a preliminary and non-binding initial proposal. The stock continued higher after that. Now investors have to decide how attractive an elevator/escalator business really is.</li>
</ul>


On 30 October, an FT article appeared which pushed Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) shares sharply higher. The headline? "Japanese lift maker Fujitec explores sale to private equity"

The next day, mid-day, Fujitec "corrected" the record, saying the articles (FT and others, presumably) contained "inaccuracies", including that "Fujitec is working to find a buyer."
They mention they have received a preliminary and non-binding initial proposal. The stock continued higher after that. Now investors have to decide how attractive an elevator/escalator business really is.


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tsuruha is the latest retailer to come under attack from an activist investment fund. </li>
<li>As with Seven &amp; I, the company fended off demands to shake up its board, crucially with the support of Aeon, its largest stakeholder.</li>
<li>The move will likely lead to some careful reconsideration of how Tsuruha and Aeon could work together and may even lead to a Welcia/Tsuruha merger.</li>
</ul>


Tsuruha is the latest retailer to come under attack from an activist investment fund. 
As with Seven &amp; I, the company fended off demands to shake up its board, crucially with the support of Aeon, its largest stakeholder.
The move will likely lead to some careful reconsideration of how Tsuruha and Aeon could work together and may even lead to a Welcia/Tsuruha merger.


Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, Free Float Weight (FFW) will be reduced on 284 stocks and increased on 458 stocks. 43 stocks will be removed from Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.77% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.45tn. 364 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 97 stocks have over 8 days ADV to trade.
Over the last 6 months, the stocks with inflows (&gt;US$25m) have outperformed the stocks with outflows (&gt;US$25m) with most of the outperformance coming in the last three months.


TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red on Friday to  close -2.9%WoW as PCE Deflator heats up; Reality check for peak inflation camp; US 2Yr Yield highest since 2007</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.5 on strong USD;  BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Jan Core infl 4.2%; Fujitec: 3 directors booted </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Tale of two Markets: Bearish US Equities but Constructive Japan Equities.  When the data changes..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red on Friday to  close -2.9%WoW as PCE Deflator heats up; Reality check for peak inflation camp; US 2Yr Yield highest since 2007
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.5 on strong USD;  BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Jan Core infl 4.2%; Fujitec: 3 directors booted 
DAILY NUGGET. Tale of two Markets: Bearish US Equities but Constructive Japan Equities.  When the data changes..


Good Morning Japan |REALITY CHECK-Sticky Inflation! Bearish US/Bullish Japan; Win for Japan Activism

Japan

FUJITEC CO., LTD. mainly manufactures elevators, escalators, and sky-parking systems by the orders from customers.  The Company also provides installation and repair services.  Fujitec has manufacturing bases in overseas including the USA, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea.

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Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)

Fujitec (6406 JP): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Fujitec is evaluating a preliminary non-binding proposal. Fujitec’s shareholder register makes it ripe for a bid. Potential bidders could include...

Arun George

Fujitec (6406 JP) - On the Block?

Fujitec may be on the block. An FT article suggests the company is talking to PE firms (wholly unsurprising) and the firm's "clarification" says a...

Travis Lundy

Activists May Be Pushing Tsuruha Towards a Merger with Welcia

This insight from last September looked at the likelihood of a merger attempt by Aeon between Welcia and Tsuruha. The reasons for this are similar...

Michael Causton

TOPIX October 2023 Rebalance: Round Trip Trade of US$20bn; Upweights Outperform Downweights

There are FFW changes for 700+ stocks and changes to the Phased Weight Reduction list. Round trip trade is around US$20bn and there is over 8 days...

Brian Freitas

Good Morning Japan |REALITY CHECK-Sticky Inflation! Bearish US/Bullish Japan; Win for Japan Activism

US hardlanding narrative strengthening; Kishida approval up; BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Japan Jan Core inflation ...

Mark Chadwick

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