'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/452/original/2019-11-17_11-54-09.png?1573959284" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106452"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO</strong> - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the market and, to loosely paraphrase the under-rated Jesse Winchester's second album title, this is the fourth straight 'down' quarter with the prospect a few more to come. Operating Income has declined by 7.8% and Net Income by 18.8%, taking margins to 6.9% and 4.6%, respectively - declines of 84bps and 122bps. The market has celebrated these new two-year lows by rising to new two-year highs, leaving some to wonder what they are missing, other than yet more central bank liquidity. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) price-earnings ratio is now 17 times, the highest since 5th February 2018, ten trading days after the long-term market peak.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/458/original/2019-11-17_12-49-55.png?1573962614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106458"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/106/459/original/2019-11-17_13-10-47.png?1573963867" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="106459"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE EARNINGS CYCLE HAS YET TO BOTTOM</strong> -  Our Results &amp; Forecast/Revision Score data series cover the last sixteen years of quarterly earnings and eleven years of forecasts and revisions and measure both results and forecasts but also their momentum, providing a better correlation with the market direction than past earnings.   The Forecast/Revision Score leads the Results Score by several months, and the market leads or lags depending on monetary and liquidity conditions. Although both Scores recovered in the last five days of results announcements, the Forecast/Revision Score of 0.45 reached on 8th November is the lowest such score in ten years and is suggesting that earnings have yet to bottom.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>WISHFUL THINKING? - The 'gap' between market expectations and actual and forecast earnings momentum is now wider than at any time since late 2014, shortly before the market peak of May 2015. Is this foresight or just wishful thinking? We tend to the latter interpretation.</strong></p></div><p><strong>In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide a full breakdown of the results and revisions announcements by Sector, Peer Group and company and offer brief comments on several recommended buys and sells.</strong></p>

Source: Japan Analytics4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the market and, to loosely paraphrase the under-rated Jesse Winchester's second album title, this is the fourth straight 'down' quarter with the prospect a few more to come. Operating Income has declined by 7.8% and Net Income by 18.8%, taking margins to 6.9% and 4.6%, respectively - declines of 84bps and 122bps. The market has celebrated these new two-year lows by rising to new two-year highs, leaving some to wonder what they are missing, other than yet more central bank liquidity. The trailing-twelve-month (TTM) price-earnings ratio is now 17 times, the highest since 5th February 2018, ten trading days after the long-term market peak.Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE EARNINGS CYCLE HAS YET TO BOTTOM -  Our Results &amp; Forecast/Revision Score data series cover the last sixteen years of quarterly earnings and eleven years of forecasts and revisions and measure both results and forecasts but also their momentum, providing a better correlation with the market direction than past earnings.   The Forecast/Revision Score leads the Results Score by several months, and the market leads or lags depending on monetary and liquidity conditions. Although both Scores recovered in the last five days of results announcements, the Forecast/Revision Score of 0.45 reached on 8th November is the lowest such score in ten years and is suggesting that earnings have yet to bottom.WISHFUL THINKING? - The 'gap' between market expectations and actual and forecast earnings momentum is now wider than at any time since late 2014, shortly before the market peak of May 2015. Is this foresight or just wishful thinking? We tend to the latter interpretation.In the DETAIL section below, we shall provide a full breakdown of the results and revisions announcements by Sector, Peer Group and company and offer brief comments on several recommended buys and sells.

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>Investors are hopeful that the US-China Trade issues will be resolved soon, driving the share price up by almost 100% YTD when in reality, every time an agreement has been "<strong>reached</strong>" either China or the US had gone back on their words, causing the said agreement to falter, again. Midea's valuation has increased proportionately to the earnings growth with the exception of August this year but it has since caught up. </div>
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<div class="content-caption">source: Capital IQ</div>
<div>Post-acquisition of Toshiba Appliances, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> enjoyed a strong revenue growth and caused the PEG ratio to be below 1, indicating undervaluation for a growth stock. Meanwhile, there has been no notable improvement in the margins and debt to equity level remains the same. </div>
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<p><em><strong>For Growth Investors: </strong></em>it has performed much better than many other stocks in light of the volatilities and now the hope for trade deal has been more realistic thus the aggressive buying should soon fade out. Recently, the PEG ratio has hit 1 and with the modest growth prospect, the PEG ratio will be higher thus it will be considered expensive for growth investors. </p>
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<strong>Lock in the +90%</strong> return while possible and wait for the contribution from the Robotics division to be sizeable enough before rushing to own Midea stock again. </div>
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<strong><em>For Value Investors: </em></strong>the stock is unlikely to experience such a massive sell-off given it is still one of the largest household appliances globally and its five year PBR ratio ranged from 2.5x to 5.5x at the highest. In the event that the share price falls hard and Midea trades at below book value, value investors should rush to seek ownership in Midea. Currently, the stock is trading at 3.89 PBR. </div>
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Investors are hopeful that the US-China Trade issues will be resolved soon, driving the share price up by almost 100% YTD when in reality, every time an agreement has been "reached" either China or the US had gone back on their words, causing the said agreement to falter, again. Midea's valuation has increased proportionately to the earnings growth with the exception of August this year but it has since caught up. 




source: Capital IQ
Post-acquisition of Toshiba Appliances, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) enjoyed a strong revenue growth and caused the PEG ratio to be below 1, indicating undervaluation for a growth stock. Meanwhile, there has been no notable improvement in the margins and debt to equity level remains the same. 


For Growth Investors: it has performed much better than many other stocks in light of the volatilities and now the hope for trade deal has been more realistic thus the aggressive buying should soon fade out. Recently, the PEG ratio has hit 1 and with the modest growth prospect, the PEG ratio will be higher thus it will be considered expensive for growth investors. 


Lock in the +90% return while possible and wait for the contribution from the Robotics division to be sizeable enough before rushing to own Midea stock again. 



For Value Investors: the stock is unlikely to experience such a massive sell-off given it is still one of the largest household appliances globally and its five year PBR ratio ranged from 2.5x to 5.5x at the highest. In the event that the share price falls hard and Midea trades at below book value, value investors should rush to seek ownership in Midea. Currently, the stock is trading at 3.89 PBR. 


Midea (000333): Sell and Wait for the Robot

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/205/original/2019-11-03_13-09-55.png?1572754223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104205"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FIRST WAVE</strong> - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/206/original/2019-11-03_13-33-51.png?1572755646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104206"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/104/207/original/2019-11-03_13-44-57.png?1572756308" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="104207"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p><strong>CALLING A BOTTOM?</strong> - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.</p><p><strong>Among the stocks mentioned below are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autobacs-seven-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2142:1" rel="noopener">Autobacs Seven (9832 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex (8698 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-tec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17697:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m-a-capital-partners-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10401:1" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP)</a>. </strong></p>

Source: Japan AnalyticsFIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In the last two weeks, there have been 967 results announcements, 426 annual forecasts or revisions and 263 interim forecasts or revisions. This Insight will review the Market Aggregate, Sector and Peer Group results and revisions using actual data and our earnings momentum-based scoring methodology as well as looking at individual company 'winners' and 'losers' and those with the most significant discrepancies between Relative Price and Results &amp; Revision Score. 
Source: Japan Analytics
CALLING A BOTTOM? - The market aggregate (excluding REITs) capitalisation is at a new one-year high, despite the continuing downward drift in actual and forecast earnings, resulting in new eighteen-month high price-earnings ratios of 16.0 (TTM) and 15.5 (Forecast). Operating Profits are 5.3% below the peak of December 2018, while Net Income has declined by 15.5% Forecasts for both are falling sharply, but are still 1.1% and 3.4% above TTM, respectively. Operating and Net margins have declined 64 bps and 102 bps - both new two-year lows. The 11% rally in the aggregate market capitalisation since 29th August suggests that 'Mr Market' believes the low-point in the earnings cycle could be reached in the current or next quarter.  With only 8.6% and 13.1% upside to the 2018 and 2017 'highs', this is a bold call.  In the DETAIL section below, we shall examine just how bold a call this is and the potential for further upside.Among the stocks mentioned below are Autobacs Seven (9832 JP), Nomura Holdings (8604 JP), Monex (8698 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Fujitsu (6702 JP), Toshiba Tec (6588 JP), and M&amp;A Capital Partners (6080 JP). 

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Roundup Part 1 - Mr Market Calls a Bottom

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.</p>

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral outlook, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities, including Japan, and global technology.

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

<p>In Q3, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1">Lenovo (992 HK)</a> reported revenue growth - well ahead of market expectations, improved margins and US$1.9bn of cashflow.  This was a considerable surprise to us - and the market.  However, having analysed the results, most of the reported revenue and profit growth comes from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16968" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> acquisition. The rise in cashflow largely came from working capital, but also benefitted from the structure of the Fujitsu deal. We think real full-year cashflow after investment, US$0.8bn, will yet again, fail to cover finance costs and dividends, and Lenovo will need to borrow another US$400m.</p>

In Q3, Lenovo (992 HK) reported revenue growth - well ahead of market expectations, improved margins and US$1.9bn of cashflow.  This was a considerable surprise to us - and the market.  However, having analysed the results, most of the reported revenue and profit growth comes from the Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) acquisition. The rise in cashflow largely came from working capital, but also benefitted from the structure of the Fujitsu deal. We think real full-year cashflow after investment, US$0.8bn, will yet again, fail to cover finance costs and dividends, and Lenovo will need to borrow another US$400m.

Sell Lenovo: Profit Is an Illusion, Liabilities Are Rising and There Is Little Real Equity Value

Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Review - Wishful Thinking

4TH DOWN AND A FEW MORE TO GO - The latest quarterly results are now, with the exception of three large insurance companies are currently in the...

Campbell Gunn

Midea (000333): Sell and Wait for the Robot

Investors are hopeful that the US-China Trade issues will be resolved soon, driving the share price up by almost 100% YTD when in reality, every...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 Japan • Results & Revisions Roundup Part 1 - Mr Market Calls a Bottom

FIRST WAVE - 42% of Japanese companies have now reported quarterly earnings, with the balance due to announce over the next eight trading days. In...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook Intact, Japan and Global Tech Are Bright Spots.

In our October International Strategy, we outline important technical levels across markets and highlight various themes which lead to our neutral...

Vermilion Research

Sell Lenovo: Profit Is an Illusion, Liabilities Are Rising and There Is Little Real Equity Value

In Q3, Lenovo (992 HK) reported revenue growth - well ahead of market expectations, improved margins and US$1.9bn of cashflow. This was a...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

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