Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.</li>
<li>On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.</li>
<li>Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.
On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.
Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.


<ul>
<li>Fujitsu earnings are out. Forecasts are in, lighter than consensus. </li>
<li>But there is a buyback. Looking at the way last year's was executed is not that informative but it may be useful. </li>
<li>This one is big enough to matter but not big enough to get excited about until we get confirmation. </li>
</ul>


Fujitsu earnings are out. Forecasts are in, lighter than consensus. 
But there is a buyback. Looking at the way last year's was executed is not that informative but it may be useful. 
This one is big enough to matter but not big enough to get excited about until we get confirmation. 


BIG Fujitsu (6702 JP) Buyback - It's a Lot, but Not, but Still Big

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> announced a pre-conditional tender offer by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder at JPY4,620 per share, a 9.7% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The special committee opines that the offer is the best price that can be expected today, which sounds like we are recommending the offer as it is the only one.</li>
<li>The offer has several negatives: a 14% price reduction during the process, below the undisturbed price, below the mid-point IFA DCF range and no serious effort on Plan B. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer by Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder at JPY4,620 per share, a 9.7% premium to the last close price.
The special committee opines that the offer is the best price that can be expected today, which sounds like we are recommending the offer as it is the only one.
The offer has several negatives: a 14% price reduction during the process, below the undisturbed price, below the mid-point IFA DCF range and no serious effort on Plan B. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japanese-consortium-makes-final-offer-on-Toshiba-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reports</a> that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>’s Board.</li>
<li>Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).</li>
<li>The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reports that Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder, has finally secured financing and submitted a final offer to Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)’s Board.
Nikkei notes that JIP expects to spend about JPY2 trillion on the acquisition suggesting an offer price around JPY4,750 per share, -4% below the undisturbed price of JPY4,957.60 (21 April).
The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to get shareholders to accept.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

<ul>
<li>The original bid was supposed to be presented fully-funded by 30 September 2022. Then it was early November, then late November, then early December, late Dec, early Jan, end Jan. </li>
<li>Today we find out that The Banks and The Preferred JIP Bidding Consortium will aim to reach agreement by 3 Feb. The Bloomberg article details are newish, and odd. </li>
<li>Shares have deteriorated and vs Peers, they are at their lowest point in many months. And the details do not make me confident this deal is clean yet. </li>
</ul>


The original bid was supposed to be presented fully-funded by 30 September 2022. Then it was early November, then late November, then early December, late Dec, early Jan, end Jan. 
Today we find out that The Banks and The Preferred JIP Bidding Consortium will aim to reach agreement by 3 Feb. The Bloomberg article details are newish, and odd. 
Shares have deteriorated and vs Peers, they are at their lowest point in many months. And the details do not make me confident this deal is clean yet. 


Toshiba (6502) - Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.

Japan

Fujitsu Ltd manufactures semiconductor, computer, and communication equipment. The Company provides comprehensive information technology, network and telecommunication solutions, and Internet services.

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Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)

Toshiba (6502) - Thinking About the Arb

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BIG Fujitsu (6702 JP) Buyback - It's a Lot, but Not, but Still Big

Fujitsu announced earnings, forecast, and a big buyback. It is big enough at 4.3% to matter. But an earnings drop is not great. How peers will fare...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP’s JPY4,620 Tender Offer, Now for the Really Hard Part

The shares will react positively initially. However, it should start drifting again once it becomes apparent that there is a considerable risk that...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502 JP): Formal Offer Lodged, Now for the Hard Part

The hard part now is getting the Board to accept the unremarkable offer and the banks’ conditions. If the Board succumbs, the next challenge is to...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502) - Funding Mostly Secured, Still, Again, Maybe. Or Maybe Not. Or Not.

A new Bloomberg article tells me JIP/Banks negotiations are extended 3 more days to breach what seems an impossible impasse. This just doesn't seem...

Travis Lundy

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