Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM, Dantes Outlook

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Global Equities, Multi-Asset PM

Dantes Outlook

We invest over a full market cycle, using multi-asset portfolios tailored to each global client, from individuals to family offices.

Built to Endure

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Return dispersion among banks is wide enough to select on. Individual outcomes range from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fukui-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9011:1" rel="noopener">Fukui Bank (8362 JP)</a> at +264% to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> at -23%.</li>
<li>
Leadership is rotating. Money is moving from small cheap regionals back toward larger names.</li>
<li>
We constructed a barbel portfolio. Leg A holds six trend-confirmed momentum leaders. Leg B holds six accelerating laggards.</li>
</ul>



Return dispersion among banks is wide enough to select on. Individual outcomes range from Fukui Bank (8362 JP) at +264% to Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) at -23%.

Leadership is rotating. Money is moving from small cheap regionals back toward larger names.

We constructed a barbel portfolio. Leg A holds six trend-confirmed momentum leaders. Leg B holds six accelerating laggards.


Japanese Banks: Rotating Beneath the Surface

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we survey the consumer staples sector at historic positioning lows, follow the rotation into (Asian) financials, and assess the sometimes mixed track record of spin-offs. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 1 April 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> and Rakuten would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/if-rakuten-4755-combines-financial-units-who-wins-and-how-well-it-s-complicated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this</a>. Talks halted 6mos later.</li>
<li>Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.</li>
<li>It's a complicated structure but worth it for Rakuten Bank. Rakuten Bank customer and deposit growth continues higher than the bank industry as a whole. Deposit beta is a question.</li>
</ul>


On 1 April 2024, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) and Rakuten would start talks aimed at creating a Fintech Group. I wrote this. Talks halted 6mos later.
Back then, word was Bank was dissatisfied with the ratios. As of 25 Feb 2026, they are starting talks again as Rakuten Group sees greater bank competition as rates rise.
It's a complicated structure but worth it for Rakuten Bank. Rakuten Bank customer and deposit growth continues higher than the bank industry as a whole. Deposit beta is a question.


[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - New Fintech Holding Would Be Positive IF Done Right

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Late on Christmas Day, news leaked out into the financial media that regional bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fukui-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9011:1" rel="noopener">Fukui Bank (8362 JP)</a> may be in advanced negotiations with unlisted secondary regional bank Fukuho Bank to take it over, initially as a majority-owned subsidiary.  Both banks are from Fukui Prefecture in the Hokuriku Region facing the Sea of Japan.  With a combined market share in Fukui Prefecture of around 36% for deposits and 49% for loans, the banks would likely need to invoke the exemptions under the recently approved law permitting banks from the same prefecture to merge without falling afoul of Japan’s anti-monopoly laws.While Fukui Bank’s share price has outperformed the Topix Banks Index in CY2020, this is damning the stock with faint praise.  Foreign investors would be well advised to steer clear.  This is not a run-of-the-mill case of a strong local bank absorbing a smaller, weaker rival.  Far from it.  Both banks have a long history of credit problems, erratic profitability and weakening performance ratios.While the takeover would no doubt have the blessing of the Suga Administration which has been actively promoting a reduction in the number of regional banks, it is difficult to see the economic rationale for the takeover.  Skeptics might suggest this is little more than an opportunity for the banks  -  should they eventually decide to go for a full merger  -  to revalue their head offices, generate one-time ‘windfall profits’ to artificially boost capital and thereby allow Fukuho Bank to repay the ¥6 billion in public funds that it still owes.  And then?  The risk for investors is a reversion by both banks to sub-par operational performance.Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to foreign investors considering investing in the Japanese banking sector in CY2021.

Late on Christmas Day, news leaked out into the financial media that regional bank Fukui Bank (8362 JP) may be in advanced negotiations with unlisted secondary regional bank Fukuho Bank to take it over, initially as a majority-owned subsidiary.  Both banks are from Fukui Prefecture in the Hokuriku Region facing the Sea of Japan.  With a combined market share in Fukui Prefecture of around 36% for deposits and 49% for loans, the banks would likely need to invoke the exemptions under the recently approved law permitting banks from the same prefecture to merge without falling afoul of Japan’s anti-monopoly laws.While Fukui Bank’s share price has outperformed the Topix Banks Index in CY2020, this is damning the stock with faint praise.  Foreign investors would be well advised to steer clear.  This is not a run-of-the-mill case of a strong local bank absorbing a smaller, weaker rival.  Far from it.  Both banks have a long history of credit problems, erratic profitability and weakening performance ratios.While the takeover would no doubt have the blessing of the Suga Administration which has been actively promoting a reduction in the number of regional banks, it is difficult to see the economic rationale for the takeover.  Skeptics might suggest this is little more than an opportunity for the banks  -  should they eventually decide to go for a full merger  -  to revalue their head offices, generate one-time ‘windfall profits’ to artificially boost capital and thereby allow Fukuho Bank to repay the ¥6 billion in public funds that it still owes.  And then?  The risk for investors is a reversion by both banks to sub-par operational performance.Caveat Emptor! (May the Buyer Beware!) remains our advice to foreign investors considering investing in the Japanese banking sector in CY2021.

Fukui Bank (8362 JP):  On Santa's List: Fukuho-Ho-Ho !

Japan

The Fukui Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Fukui prefecture. The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. The Fukui Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, and letter of credit.

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Fukui Bank (8362 JP)

Japanese Banks: Rotating Beneath the Surface

Japanese banks are outperforming, although dispersion is wide. There's a rotation between small/large and cheap/expensive, so we built a barbel...

Damanick Dantes, CMT

Curator's Cut: Few Want Consumer Staples, Many Want Financials, & Spin-Off Lessons

In this Curator's Cut, we examine poor positioning in Consumer Staples, the (continued) rotation into (Asian) Financials and mixed views on spin...

Pranav Rao

[Japan Event] Rakuten Bank (5838) - New Fintech Holding Would Be Positive IF Done Right

Rakuten Bank is the worst-performing listed bank in Japan in the last 11+ months despite strong earnings growth. Everyone else's PER multiple is...

Travis Lundy

Fukui Bank (8362 JP): On Santa's List: Fukuho-Ho-Ho !

On Christmas Day, it was reported that Fukui Bank (8362 JP) may be in negotiations with Fukuho Bank to take it over as a majority-owned...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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