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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Autos /In Depth: How smart cars are upending the auto supply chain</li><li>Capsized /: 39 missing after Chinese fishing vessel capsizes in Indian Ocean</li><li>Talk show /: Chinese comedy producer takes $2.1 million hit for military pun</li></ul>

Autos /In Depth: How smart cars are upending the auto supply chainCapsized /: 39 missing after Chinese fishing vessel capsizes in Indian OceanTalk show /: Chinese comedy producer takes $2.1 million hit for military pun

CX Daily: How Smart Cars Are Upending the Auto Supply Chain

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. </li>
<li>Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;</li>
<li>Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso</li>
</ul>


Even though we are long-term optimistic on the rise of Chinese consumer brands, we believe short-term optimism is misplaced. 
Two themes: (1) structural changes led by China’s transition to an older and more affluent society, (2) substitution and globalization that can break the ceiling for valuation;
Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour, Luckin, FUTU, BEKE and Miniso


[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Guotai Junan International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> proposed to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a> at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium to the pre-suspension price, which looks good enough. </li>
<li>The proposed price equals 11.9x PER for FY26F, higher than the average of 10.1x since 2024. This is better than the sector's average PER of 10.3x.</li>
<li>It also equates to 1.6x 12-month forward P/B, or 1.3SD above the 5-year average, well reflecting a projected ROE recovery in the next two years.</li>
</ul>



Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) proposed to privatise Guotai Junan International (1788 HK) at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium to the pre-suspension price, which looks good enough. 
The proposed price equals 11.9x PER for FY26F, higher than the average of 10.1x since 2024. This is better than the sector's average PER of 10.3x.
It also equates to 1.6x 12-month forward P/B, or 1.3SD above the 5-year average, well reflecting a projected ROE recovery in the next two years.


Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

<ul>
<li>Positive to PDD: Temu aired its commercial at the Super Bowl</li>
<li>Negative to FUTU: Bright Smart Securities downsizing the mainland account</li>
<li>Positive to BIDU: Updates on Baidu's ChatGPT-similar product "ERNIE Bot"</li>
</ul>


Positive to PDD: Temu aired its commercial at the Super Bowl
Negative to FUTU: Bright Smart Securities downsizing the mainland account
Positive to BIDU: Updates on Baidu's ChatGPT-similar product "ERNIE Bot"


China TMT Update(Feb.11-14): PDD, FUTU, BIDU

Equity Capital Markets

Zhongji InnoLight / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongji-innolight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:55331:1" rel="noopener">Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK)</a> fixed its IPO price at HK$980, 3% below the maximum, due to the recent weakness of AI-related stocks. Its HA discount is now at just 11.1%.  </li>
<li>Its peers have retreated an average of 12.1% in a week, and its A-share was off by 10.4%. Futubull's grey market price was down 1% from the IPO.</li>
<li>It may dip below IPO on debut, but anything below 15% HA discount is a bargain (HK$936.8). For initial upside, we look for par with A-share, i.e. HK$1,102.</li>
</ul>



Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) fixed its IPO price at HK$980, 3% below the maximum, due to the recent weakness of AI-related stocks. Its HA discount is now at just 11.1%.  
Its peers have retreated an average of 12.1% in a week, and its A-share was off by 10.4%. Futubull's grey market price was down 1% from the IPO.
It may dip below IPO on debut, but anything below 15% HA discount is a bargain (HK$936.8). For initial upside, we look for par with A-share, i.e. HK$1,102.


Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Debut and Trading Strategy

United States

Futu Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers an online brokerage platform that enables individual investors to trade in listed stocks. Futu Holdings serves customers in the United States, China, and Hong Kong.

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Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)

CX Daily: How Smart Cars Are Upending the Auto Supply Chain

Autos /In Depth: How smart cars are upending the auto supply chain Capsized /: 39 missing after Chinese fishing vessel capsizes in Indian...

Caixin Global

[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

Chinese underconsumption is only half true. It only occurs in categories associated with development stages; Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China TMT Update(Feb.11-14): PDD, FUTU, BIDU

PDD: Temu aired its commercial at the Super Bowl; FUTU: Bright Smart Securities downsizing the mainland account; BIDU: Updates on Baidu's ChatGPT...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Debut and Trading Strategy

Zhongji InnoLight prices IPO at 3% below the maximum due to AI stock weakness. It may dip below IPO price, but anything more than 15% HA discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CX Daily: How Smart Cars Are Upending the Auto Supply Chain

Autos /In Depth: How smart cars are upending the auto supply chain Capsized /: 39 missing after Chinese fishing vessel capsizes in Indian...

Caixin Global

[Consumer Brands Deep Dive]:Structural and Substitution Drive Chinese Consumer

Chinese underconsumption is only half true. It only occurs in categories associated with development stages; Our TOP PICKS are Li Auto, Atour,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Guotai Junan Intl (1788 HK): A Good Enough Privatisation Price

​Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China TMT Update(Feb.11-14): PDD, FUTU, BIDU

PDD: Temu aired its commercial at the Super Bowl; FUTU: Bright Smart Securities downsizing the mainland account; BIDU: Updates on Baidu's ChatGPT...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Zhongji InnoLight (3308 HK) IPO: Debut and Trading Strategy

​Zhongji InnoLight prices IPO at 3% below the maximum due to AI stock weakness. It may dip below IPO price, but anything more than 15% HA discount...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guotai Haitong proposes to privatise Guotai Junan International at HK$3.0, a 44.2% premium over the closing price, offering a higher-than-average...

Zhongji InnoLight prices IPO at 3% below the maximum due to AI stock weakness. It may dip below IPO price, but anything more than 15% HA discount...