Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM exposure and be selective.  India’s S&amp;P BSE SENSEX is our top country-specific EM index recommendation, overweight India. We also provide an update on Brazil’s Bovespa, which has surged over the last month following a steep selloff. We are skeptical that the index will be able to continue its unabated advance.  Today’s report also includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Nuzran Sahib

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

LNG buyers are seeking to renegotiate their long-term LNG contracts by capitalising on the supply glut to overcome oil-based pricing, destination restrictions and “take or pay” clauses while transferring the shipping costs by pricing on DES instead of FOB basis. Successful renegotiations involving major gas producers suggest the potential for more renegotiation as suppliers trade off flexibility and lower prices in order to increase their supply quantity. With LNG projects streaming in from Australia and North America further decreases in LNG contract prices are plausible in the short term.

LNG buyers are seeking to renegotiate their long-term LNG contracts by capitalising on the supply glut to overcome oil-based pricing, destination restrictions and “take or pay” clauses while transferring the shipping costs by pricing on DES instead of FOB basis. Successful renegotiations involving major gas producers suggest the potential for more renegotiation as suppliers trade off flexibility and lower prices in order to increase their supply quantity. With LNG projects streaming in from Australia and North America further decreases in LNG contract prices are plausible in the short term.

Renegotiation of LNG Contracts Will Be More Evident in Coming Years Amidst Depressed Spot Prices

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Equity Bottom-Up

Power Grid Corporation Of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>After rating upgrade for India, the ratings for some PSUs have also been upgraded</h2>After upgrading India's sovereign rating to Baa2 stable from Baa3 positive, Moody's has upgraded the ratings of some State owned Enterprises (SoEs) or Public Sector Enterprises (PSUs) as well including the ratings for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11842" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11842:1">NTPC Ltd (NTPC IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7826" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7826:1">Nhpc Ltd (NHPC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15263" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15263:1">Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN)</a>.  "The upgrade in ratings for NTPC, NHPC, NHAI and GAIL follows the upgrade of the Indian sovereign rating and reflects the…

After rating upgrade for India, the ratings for some PSUs have also been upgradedAfter upgrading India's sovereign rating to Baa2 stable from Baa3 positive, Moody's has upgraded the ratings of some State owned Enterprises (SoEs) or Public Sector Enterprises (PSUs) as well including the ratings for NTPC Ltd (NTPC IN) , Nhpc Ltd (NHPC IN) and Gail India Ltd (GAIL IN).  "The upgrade in ratings for NTPC, NHPC, NHAI and GAIL follows the upgrade of the Indian sovereign rating and reflects the…

Moody's Rating Upgrade and How Does This Benefit Power Grid and NTPC?

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

During our visit to New Delhi in December 2016, we had to defend ourselves from demonetization and the city’s choking air pollution. Even as India staggers to find a solution to the latter, four of its cities are among the world's top ten worst-ranked cities for air pollution. We wondered if the environment in the South would meet a similar fate and decided to look at steps taken in the North to curtail the calamity. While we have already spoken in detail about the status of piped natural gas in India in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/falling-natural-gas-production-and-poor-import-infra-make-png-a-distant-dream-for-most-indians" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:9432">Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians</a>, we will look at the CNG segment in this report and how it can make a difference.

During our visit to New Delhi in December 2016, we had to defend ourselves from demonetization and the city’s choking air pollution. Even as India staggers to find a solution to the latter, four of its cities are among the world's top ten worst-ranked cities for air pollution. We wondered if the environment in the South would meet a similar fate and decided to look at steps taken in the North to curtail the calamity. While we have already spoken in detail about the status of piped natural gas in India in Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians, we will look at the CNG segment in this report and how it can make a difference. 

New CGD Networks Give South India the Potential to Lead CNG Growth in Second Half of the Decade

India

GAIL India Limited processes and distributes natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company is a Government of India undertaking.

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Gail India (GAIL IN)

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE,...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: MSCI EM Approaching Resistance; India Breaking Out to New Highs -- Add Exposure

The MSCI EM index has recovered over the last couple of weeks and is now approaching a logical resistance level. We reiterate: avoid broad EM...

Vermilion Research

Renegotiation of LNG Contracts Will Be More Evident in Coming Years Amidst Depressed Spot Prices

LNG buyers are seeking to renegotiate their long-term LNG contracts by capitalising on the supply glut to overcome oil-based pricing, destination...

Nuzran Sahib

Moody's Rating Upgrade and How Does This Benefit Power Grid and NTPC?

After rating upgrade for India, the ratings for some PSUs have also been upgradedAfter upgrading India's sovereign rating to Baa2 stable from Baa3...

Pankaj Sharma

New CGD Networks Give South India the Potential to Lead CNG Growth in Second Half of the Decade

During our visit to New Delhi in December 2016, we had to defend ourselves from demonetization and the city’s choking air pollution. Even as India...

Speeda Research

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