Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Iran war has effectively severed India's primary LNG supply corridor, triggering output cuts at at least three domestic urea plants and a force majeure notice from Petronet LNG.</li>
<li>LNG accounts for 80% of fertiliser sector gas demand in India. A prolonged disruption arriving just ahead of kharif planting risks higher subsidy burdens, costlier imports, margin compression for companies.</li>
<li>Gas-Dependent urea producers (Chambal, GSFC, NFL, RCF) face near-term earnings headwinds; phosphate-focused names like Coromandel could face sulphur input inflation.</li>
</ul>


The Iran war has effectively severed India's primary LNG supply corridor, triggering output cuts at at least three domestic urea plants and a force majeure notice from Petronet LNG.
LNG accounts for 80% of fertiliser sector gas demand in India. A prolonged disruption arriving just ahead of kharif planting risks higher subsidy burdens, costlier imports, margin compression for companies.
Gas-Dependent urea producers (Chambal, GSFC, NFL, RCF) face near-term earnings headwinds; phosphate-focused names like Coromandel could face sulphur input inflation.


How the Iran War Is Squeezing India's Fertiliser Sector?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Petroleum, Adani Enterprises, GMR Airports.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Petroleum, Adani Enterprises, GMR Airports.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by 46.8% YoY, +14% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher refining GRMs</li><li>Upstream segment earnings to decline by 0.2% YoY but grow by 6.3% QoQ owing to sequential rise in crude prices and rupee depreciation</li><li>We expect high LNG spot rate to have an adverse impact on natural gas offtake volume from Industrial and Commercial customers</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by 46.8% YoY, +14% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due to higher refining GRMsUpstream segment earnings to decline by 0.2% YoY but grow by 6.3% QoQ owing to sequential rise in crude prices and rupee depreciationWe expect high LNG spot rate to have an adverse impact on natural gas offtake volume from Industrial and Commercial customersContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil and Gas (Q2FY26 Result Preview): Strong refining margins to lift earnings

<ul><li>The aggregate performance of the Q1FY26 earnings season was steady as sequential improvement in YoY PAT growth continued in the current quarter</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 5%/10% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~246 stocks) in Q1FY26</li><li>Ex-OMCs, aggregate YoY revenue/earnings growth for the quarter was 6%/5%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY26 earnings season was steady as sequential improvement in YoY PAT growth continued in the current quarterAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 5%/10% YoY across the HSIE coverage (~246 stocks) in Q1FY26Ex-OMCs, aggregate YoY revenue/earnings growth for the quarter was 6%/5%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth and downgrade cycle bottoming-out

India

GAIL is an Indian state-owned energy corporation primarily involved in the trade, transmission, production, and distribution of natural gas, as well as LPG and other liquid hydrocarbons. The company also has diversified interests in petrochemicals, city gas distribution, renewable energy, and exploration and production activities. GAIL is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was founded in August 1984.

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GAIL (GAIL IN)

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

How the Iran War Is Squeezing India's Fertiliser Sector?

With LNG flows from the Strait of Hormuz near standstill and Qatar's mega urea plant dark, India's fertiliser companies face a feedstock shock at...

Nimish Maheshwari

MS-India Index Earning Revision (Sep): SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in SWIGGY, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Oil and Gas (Q2FY26 Result Preview): Strong refining margins to lift earnings

We expect our coverage universe EBITDA to increase by 46.8% YoY, +14% QoQ, owing to an improvement in profitability from the downstream segment due...

HDFC Securities

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth and downgrade cycle bottoming-out

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY26 earnings season was steady as sequential improvement in YoY PAT growth continued in the current quarter

HDFC Securities

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