External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ITC: ITC reported a weak operating print due to a soft cigarette performance along with sustained weakness seen in the agri and paper portfolio</li><li>Cigarette net revenue/EBIT growth was at 4/2%, with volume estimated to have fallen by 1% (5% 4-year CAGR) on a high base</li><li>Differentiated and premium offerings continued to perform well</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC: ITC reported a weak operating print due to a soft cigarette performance along with sustained weakness seen in the agri and paper portfolioCigarette net revenue/EBIT growth was at 4/2%, with volume estimated to have fallen by 1% (5% 4-year CAGR) on a high baseDifferentiated and premium offerings continued to perform wellContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

<ul><li>Indian Oil Corporation: Our ADD rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 100, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, partially offset by muted petchem earnings and elevated debt</li><li>IOCL reported EBITDA of INR 213bn (+11x YoY, -4% QoQ), which was broadly in line, while APAT came in at INR 130bn, marginally below estimate</li><li>Earnings were supported by strong performance from the refining segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil Corporation: Our ADD rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 100, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, partially offset by muted petchem earnings and elevated debtIOCL reported EBITDA of INR 213bn (+11x YoY, -4% QoQ), which was broadly in line, while APAT came in at INR 130bn, marginally below estimateEarnings were supported by strong performance from the refining segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, Godrej Consumers, Ambuja Cement, Gail

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, Godrej Consumers, Ambuja Cement, Gail, ACC, CDSL

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 145 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 129mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li><li>Q2FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 35/24bn, came in above our estimates, driven by an improvement in natural gas transmission volumes and higher marketing margins</li><li>Depreciation at INR 7.5bn (+21% YoY, +18% QoQ) came above expectation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 145 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 129mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentQ2FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 35/24bn, came in above our estimates, driven by an improvement in natural gas transmission volumes and higher marketing marginsDepreciation at INR 7.5bn (+21% YoY, +18% QoQ) came above expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gail (Q2FY24): Transmission and Trading Segments Outperform. Maintain BUY

India

GAIL India Limited processes and distributes natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The Company is a Government of India undertaking.

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Gail India (GAIL IN)

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

ITC: ITC reported a weak operating print due to a soft cigarette performance along with sustained weakness seen in the agri and paper portfolio

HDFC Securities

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, Godrej Consumers, Ambuja Cement, Gail

Our ADD rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 100, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, partially...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, Godrej Consumers, Ambuja Cement, Gail, ACC, CDSL

IOCL reported EBITDA of INR 213bn (+11x YoY, -4% QoQ), which was broadly in line, while APAT came in at INR 130bn, marginally below estimate

HDFC Securities

Gail (Q2FY24): Transmission and Trading Segments Outperform. Maintain BUY

Q2FY24 reported EBITDA/PAT at INR 35/24bn, came in above our estimates, driven by an improvement in natural gas transmission volumes and higher...

HDFC Securities

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