AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Enterprises are slashing AI bills by up to 17x through "model routing," i.e. using cheap open models for routine execution while reserving expensive frontier models strictly for high-stakes workflows.</li>
<li>Plunging token prices are clashing with surging infrastructure costs; OpenAI is bleeding cash subsidising free users, while Anthropic’s projected profitability relies heavily on temporary and discounted compute deals.</li>
<li>The survival of frontier labs depends on ditching opaque token metering. Enterprises demand fixed-cost, embedded workflows over open-ended compute bills that spike unpredictably based on hidden context lengths.</li>
</ul>


Enterprises are slashing AI bills by up to 17x through "model routing," i.e. using cheap open models for routine execution while reserving expensive frontier models strictly for high-stakes workflows.
Plunging token prices are clashing with surging infrastructure costs; OpenAI is bleeding cash subsidising free users, while Anthropic’s projected profitability relies heavily on temporary and discounted compute deals.
The survival of frontier labs depends on ditching opaque token metering. Enterprises demand fixed-cost, embedded workflows over open-ended compute bills that spike unpredictably based on hidden context lengths.


The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return</li>
<li>While employees are likely using LLMs in a personal capacity, this mostly isn't feeding into the KPI's that are being used to monitor the success of GenAI projects</li>
<li>The harsh reality is that integrating GenAI tools into existing workflows is time consuming, needs careful planning and likely best done with help from the professionals. </li>
</ul>


Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return
While employees are likely using LLMs in a personal capacity, this mostly isn't feeding into the KPI's that are being used to monitor the success of GenAI projects
The harsh reality is that integrating GenAI tools into existing workflows is time consuming, needs careful planning and likely best done with help from the professionals. 


MIT Report Claims 95% of GenAI Projects Fail. How Is This Possible?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.</li>
<li>It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.</li>
<li>The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming</li>
</ul>


$SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we've discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
It's hard to call it a "decisive" breakout if SPX isn't even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming


Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul><li>After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break down below prior weekly support levels in a large bearish engulfing candle last week.</li><li>This breakdown can serve as a tailwind for multi-nationals (especially technology names), commodities, emerging markets, treasuries, and cryptos.</li><li>The dollar is now sitting at a 15 month low. This decline may not be over as the MACD indicator is now crossing down.</li></ul>

After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break down below prior weekly support levels in a large bearish engulfing candle last week.This breakdown can serve as a tailwind for multi-nationals (especially technology names), commodities, emerging markets, treasuries, and cryptos.The dollar is now sitting at a 15 month low. This decline may not be over as the MACD indicator is now crossing down.

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,700/1,706 points and the support at 1,685/1,675 points.</li><li>Tactically, investors are suggested to focus on laggard plays after the market began to be concerned about softer buying by foreign investors due to the possibility of baht depreciation after it gained 4% last week and 12% from its weakest point.</li><li>Foreign investors' buying became the key supporting factor and kept the market sentiment positive, in line with the MACD, RSI and stochastic.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,700/1,706 points and the support at 1,685/1,675 points.Tactically, investors are suggested to focus on laggard plays after the market began to be concerned about softer buying by foreign investors due to the possibility of baht depreciation after it gained 4% last week and 12% from its weakest point.Foreign investors' buying became the key supporting factor and kept the market sentiment positive, in line with the MACD, RSI and stochastic.

United States

Gartner, Inc. provides research and analysis on the computer hardware, software, communications, and related information technology industries.  The Company's business segments include research, consulting, measurement, events and executive programs.

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Gartner Inc (IT US)

The Great AI Arbitrage: Plunging Token Prices Meet Surging Capex

Token prices are plunging, AI capex is surging, and enterprises are exploiting the gap. Discover why model routing is squeezing OpenAI and...

Mint Finance

MIT Report Claims 95% of GenAI Projects Fail. How Is This Possible?

The harsh reality is that integrating GenAI tools into existing workflows is time consuming, needs careful planning and likely best done with help...

William Keating

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Still No Decisive Breakout as $SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; On watch for SPX bull trap/failed breakout, confirmed only on a break below 5670. 2007...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 7/17

After witnessing a parabolic advance at the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle in early 2022, the US dollar has decisely break...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the resistance at 1,700/1,706 points and the support at 1,685/1,675 points. Tactically, investors...

Krungthai XSpring

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