FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

I posted a bullish GBP report on Monday, based mostly on the Chequers agreement, but also on the improved UK economic reports and BoE comments last week.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gbp-may-be-in-a-sweet-spot" target="_blank">GBP may be in a sweet spot - SmartKarma.com</a>Considering the fast-moving developments on Monday, with the resignations of the Brexit and Foreign Secretaries, Davis and Johnson, from the Tory cabinet, these are my follow-up thoughts.I did not expect Davis or Johnson to resign.  However, it still appears to me that May had a win on Friday when her…

I posted a bullish GBP report on Monday, based mostly on the Chequers agreement, but also on the improved UK economic reports and BoE comments last week.GBP may be in a sweet spot - SmartKarma.comConsidering the fast-moving developments on Monday, with the resignations of the Brexit and Foreign Secretaries, Davis and Johnson, from the Tory cabinet, these are my follow-up thoughts.I did not expect Davis or Johnson to resign.  However, it still appears to me that May had a win on Friday when her…

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and China and recent weakness in global export confidence may keep Asian currencies under pressure.  China is courting the EU in trade relations to counter the risks of a US trade war.  The EU may find it can ease its trade risks while the US and China slug it out.

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and China and recent weakness in global export confidence may keep Asian currencies under pressure.  China is courting the EU in trade relations to counter the risks of a US trade war.  The EU may find it can ease its trade risks while the US and China slug it out. 

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>There has been little progress in Brexit negotiations recently as the UK debates unviable positions with itself and the EU is intransigent over the Irish backstop.</li>
<li>The EU’s preference for a soft Brexit seems to be yielding attempts to bounce the UK in that direction. Costs of membership without the benefits of leaving would make it an unstable equilibrium, in my view.</li>
<li>I continue to expect a hard Brexit and see it as the only stable equilibrium state.</li>
<li>The MPC is less responsive to Brexit developments than many think, partly because the actions of businesses, households and markets determine the policy response. Stimulus in a bad outcome is best provided in the event, not in anticipation.</li>
</ul>


There has been little progress in Brexit negotiations recently as the UK debates unviable positions with itself and the EU is intransigent over the Irish backstop.
The EU’s preference for a soft Brexit seems to be yielding attempts to bounce the UK in that direction. Costs of membership without the benefits of leaving would make it an unstable equilibrium, in my view.
I continue to expect a hard Brexit and see it as the only stable equilibrium state.
The MPC is less responsive to Brexit developments than many think, partly because the actions of businesses, households and markets determine the policy response. Stimulus in a bad outcome is best provided in the event, not in anticipation.


Brexit: Bouncing Through Unstable Equilibria

<ul>
<li>The UK’s services PMI stretched its recovery near to the heights hit around the last BoE rate hike. It also suggests strength beyond what I pencil into my Q2 GDP forecast (0.4% q-o-q), although I remain wary of the lousy correlation.</li>
<li>Once again, all three UK PMIs beat consensus expectations to resume its trend pace of growth, which also supports the MPC resuming its hiking cycle in August. The concerns encouraging a delay in May appear broadly resolved, in my view.</li>
</ul>The recovery in the services…


The UK’s services PMI stretched its recovery near to the heights hit around the last BoE rate hike. It also suggests strength beyond what I pencil into my Q2 GDP forecast (0.4% q-o-q), although I remain wary of the lousy correlation.
Once again, all three UK PMIs beat consensus expectations to resume its trend pace of growth, which also supports the MPC resuming its hiking cycle in August. The concerns encouraging a delay in May appear broadly resolved, in my view.
The recovery in the services…

FLASH: UK PMI Surprises Support August Hike

<ul>
<li>The UK’s manufacturing PMI held broadly stable at 54.4 in Jun-18. Euro area weakness has removed the survey’s froth and caused convergence back to the UK.</li>
<li>Amid acute April weakness in the ONS data, manufacturing output is likely to be far weaker in Q2 than either the PMI or CBI surveys suggest, even assuming a rebound in May. Seasonal adjustment issues are probably partly to blame.</li>
<li>
Warm weather continues to contract energy flows on the national grid. Falls in oil and gas extraction in May will…</li>
</ul>


The UK’s manufacturing PMI held broadly stable at 54.4 in Jun-18. Euro area weakness has removed the survey’s froth and caused convergence back to the UK.
Amid acute April weakness in the ONS data, manufacturing output is likely to be far weaker in Q2 than either the PMI or CBI surveys suggest, even assuming a rebound in May. Seasonal adjustment issues are probably partly to blame.

Warm weather continues to contract energy flows on the national grid. Falls in oil and gas extraction in May will…


FLASH: UK Energy Offsets Late-2Q18 Manu’ Bounce

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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Fresh UK Political Turmoil

I posted a bullish GBP report on Monday, based mostly on the Chequers agreement, but also on the improved UK economic reports and BoE comments last...

Greg Gibbs

GBP May Be in a Sweet Spot

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat...

Greg Gibbs

Brexit: Bouncing Through Unstable Equilibria

There has been little progress in Brexit negotiations recently as the UK debates unviable positions with itself and the EU is intransigent over...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK PMI Surprises Support August Hike

The UK’s services PMI stretched its recovery near to the heights hit around the last BoE rate hike. It also suggests strength beyond what I pencil...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK Energy Offsets Late-2Q18 Manu’ Bounce

The UK’s manufacturing PMI held broadly stable at 54.4 in Jun-18. Euro area weakness has removed the survey’s froth and caused convergence back to...

Phil Rush

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