External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short was largely unchanged in the week ended September 16, widening a modest $0.7bn w/w to $7.8bn, in a reporting period that captured speculative positioning into the Fed, BoC, BoE, and BoJ policy meetings.</li><li>Individual reporting currency swings offered some interesting w/w changes with notable short covering in GBP and AUD alongside a sizeable reduction in the JPY net long.</li><li>Speculators also slightly pared back their massive EUR long. The EUR remains the largest held net long, followed by the JPY in a distant second. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short was largely unchanged in the week ended September 16, widening a modest $0.7bn w/w to $7.8bn, in a reporting period that captured speculative positioning into the Fed, BoC, BoE, and BoJ policy meetings.Individual reporting currency swings offered some interesting w/w changes with notable short covering in GBP and AUD alongside a sizeable reduction in the JPY net long.Speculators also slightly pared back their massive EUR long. The EUR remains the largest held net long, followed by the JPY in a distant second. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculators Covered GBP Shorts Ahead Of BoE

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Euro area core inflation may slip to 2.1% in August and stay there in September, with pressure likely coming later in the fourth quarter from wages and goods inflation.</li><li>Headline inflation in the Euro area is forecasted to fall to 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with core inflation at 2.1% and further declines expected by the end of 2026.</li><li>UK headline inflation is expected to rise to 4% CPI in September before moderating, with front end UK inflation breakevens declining but offering value at these levels.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Euro area core inflation may slip to 2.1% in August and stay there in September, with pressure likely coming later in the fourth quarter from wages and goods inflation.Headline inflation in the Euro area is forecasted to fall to 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with core inflation at 2.1% and further declines expected by the end of 2026.UK headline inflation is expected to rise to 4% CPI in September before moderating, with front end UK inflation breakevens declining but offering value at these levels.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European Rates: Euro and UK inflation markets summer update

<ul><li>We remain bullish GBP and see no reason to make changes to our longer-term forecast targeting 1.40 by year-end 2025 and 1.48 by year-end 2026.</li><li>We see Wednesday’s political turbulence as a short-lived event with no lasting impact, given PM Starmer’s expression of continued support for Chancellor Reeves as both the PM and Chancellor seek to reinforce their commitment to fiscal responsibility in the UK.</li><li>The pound fell 0.8% on Wednesday, pressured by renewed fears about the UK’s fiscal situation as market participants considered the prospect of a possible change in leadership at HM Treasury. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We remain bullish GBP and see no reason to make changes to our longer-term forecast targeting 1.40 by year-end 2025 and 1.48 by year-end 2026.We see Wednesday’s political turbulence as a short-lived event with no lasting impact, given PM Starmer’s expression of continued support for Chancellor Reeves as both the PM and Chancellor seek to reinforce their commitment to fiscal responsibility in the UK.The pound fell 0.8% on Wednesday, pressured by renewed fears about the UK’s fiscal situation as market participants considered the prospect of a possible change in leadership at HM Treasury. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Remain Bullish GBP Despite Latest Political Troubles

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.</li><li>Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.</li><li>Are international investors even involved in China anymore?</li></ul>

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate.Positioning in CNY markets is an underreported angle in the discussion on China as it may help guide asset performance from here, now that everyone and their mother agrees that China is stuck in a mess.Are international investors even involved in China anymore?

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Speculators Covered GBP Shorts Ahead Of BoE

Individual reporting currency swings offered some interesting w/w changes with notable short covering in GBP and AUD alongside a sizeable reduction...

Scotiabank

European Rates: Euro and UK inflation markets summer update

Euro area core inflation may slip to 2.1% in August and stay there in September, with pressure likely coming later in the fourth quarter from...

At Any Rate

FX Snapshot - Remain Bullish GBP Despite Latest Political Troubles

We remain bullish GBP and see no reason to make changes to our longer-term forecast targeting 1.40 by year-end 2025 and 1.48 by year-end 2026.

Scotiabank

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Is Anyone Even Invested in China at This Stage?

We hope you have enjoyed our China Week coverage with extensive analysis on the ongoing malaise in Chinese Real Estate. Positioning in CNY markets...

Steno Research

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