Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

• Inflation in May-18 disappointed consensus expectations again as it held at 2.4% on the CPI and slowed to 3.3% on the RPI, both in line with my forecast. • Transport was stronger than I expected, and its persistence lifts my forecast slightly. Energy prices are anyway set to raise inflation temporarily in the summer.Inflation was once again on the soft side of the consensus in May, but like last month, it is without dovish implications (see <a href="http://d11h2erjsex3o6.cloudfront.net/2018-05-23+FLASH.pdf" target="_blank">FLASH: CPI slowdown not dovish in Apr-18</a>). By holding…

• Inflation in May-18 disappointed consensus expectations again as it held at 2.4% on the CPI and slowed to 3.3% on the RPI, both in line with my forecast. • Transport was stronger than I expected, and its persistence lifts my forecast slightly. Energy prices are anyway set to raise inflation temporarily in the summer.Inflation was once again on the soft side of the consensus in May, but like last month, it is without dovish implications (see FLASH: CPI slowdown not dovish in Apr-18). By holding…

FLASH: UK Inflation Stays Soft Ahead of Summer Rise

<ul>
<li>The Withdrawal Bill returns to the House of Commons on 12 and 13 June for the consideration of amendments after its bruising passage through the Lords. Brisk voting makes it easier to overrule the Lords in the Autumn if necessary.</li>
<li>Votes on the customs union and EEA are significant, although the former does not in itself change government policy and the latter is unlikely to pass.</li>
<li>
An alternative amendment to the promised meaningful vote should prevent this one passing, but it could be close.…</li>
</ul>


The Withdrawal Bill returns to the House of Commons on 12 and 13 June for the consideration of amendments after its bruising passage through the Lords. Brisk voting makes it easier to overrule the Lords in the Autumn if necessary.
Votes on the customs union and EEA are significant, although the former does not in itself change government policy and the latter is unlikely to pass.

An alternative amendment to the promised meaningful vote should prevent this one passing, but it could be close.…


<ul>
<li>UK manufacturing output in April abruptly contracted by 1.4% m-o-m, contrary to widespread expectations for slight growth and despite the PMI’s rebound.</li>
<li>Metals and transport equipment drove most weakness, although the former is at odds with a surge in steel output. A new methodology and seasonal factors may have exaggerated the weakness.</li>
<li>
Semi-manufactured goods imports support the soft signal and exports were also disappointing. Construction output failed to rebound much in April either, but it…</li>
</ul>


UK manufacturing output in April abruptly contracted by 1.4% m-o-m, contrary to widespread expectations for slight growth and despite the PMI’s rebound.
Metals and transport equipment drove most weakness, although the former is at odds with a surge in steel output. A new methodology and seasonal factors may have exaggerated the weakness.

Semi-manufactured goods imports support the soft signal and exports were also disappointing. Construction output failed to rebound much in April either, but it…


FLASH: Surprise UK Industrial Crash in Apr-18

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul><li>This week in trade ideas: Stay long Korea equities (vs EM) ahead of Trump-Kim summit. Short US Treasury 10s upon a US-DPRK joint statement. Tactical short Turkey equities - as effects from the CBRT's recent policy action fade and investor focus shifts to heightening political risks ahead of the 24 Jun elections. Tactical long Argentina equities if the Macri government is able to avert or delay a nationwide/truckers' strike (as soon as 14 Jun).</li><li>This week in events: <ul><li>Mon/11: Japan machine orders, Norway CPI, UK trade/IP/mfg, US 2/10yr UST auction, Turkey CA balance/GDP/12mth CPI expectations, UK Brexit Sec Davis-EU Barnier mtg</li><li>Tue/12: Japan tertiary industry, UK jobs, Germany ZEW, US CPI, US 30yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Argentina BCRA, Trump-Kim Summit, UK Parliament 12hr Brexit session (Tue-Wed)</li><li>Wed/13: UK CPI, EZ IP, US PPI, FOMC/Chair Powell press con, Chile BCCh</li><li>Thu/14: Australia jobs, Sweden CPI, ECB MPC/new forecasts, China retail sales/IP/FAI, Argentina national/GBA CPI, World Cup begins</li><li>Fri/15: US UMich, BOJ MPC, Russia CBR, India trade, Deadline for US final list of Chinese products subject to $50bn in tariffs</li></ul></li><li>Sovereign ratings: UK (Moody’s), Serbia (Fitch, S&amp;P)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Stay long Korea equities (vs EM) ahead of Trump-Kim summit. Short US Treasury 10s upon a US-DPRK joint statement. Tactical short Turkey equities - as effects from the CBRT's recent policy action fade and investor focus shifts to heightening political risks ahead of the 24 Jun elections. Tactical long Argentina equities if the Macri government is able to avert or delay a nationwide/truckers' strike (as soon as 14 Jun).This week in events: Mon/11: Japan machine orders, Norway CPI, UK trade/IP/mfg, US 2/10yr UST auction, Turkey CA balance/GDP/12mth CPI expectations, UK Brexit Sec Davis-EU Barnier mtgTue/12: Japan tertiary industry, UK jobs, Germany ZEW, US CPI, US 30yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Argentina BCRA, Trump-Kim Summit, UK Parliament 12hr Brexit session (Tue-Wed)Wed/13: UK CPI, EZ IP, US PPI, FOMC/Chair Powell press con, Chile BCChThu/14: Australia jobs, Sweden CPI, ECB MPC/new forecasts, China retail sales/IP/FAI, Argentina national/GBA CPI, World Cup beginsFri/15: US UMich, BOJ MPC, Russia CBR, India trade, Deadline for US final list of Chinese products subject to $50bn in tariffsSovereign ratings: UK (Moody’s), Serbia (Fitch, S&amp;P)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Trump-Kim Summit, Fed/ECB/BOJ, China Activity, Argie BCRA/CPI, World Cup

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Both the EUR and GBP have taken a beating in the last month.  The EUR is near key support and may recover somewhat as risk aversion related to Italy eases and Q2 economic reports recover.  However, we see the bounce as limited with Italian political risk set to linger and the potential for growing trade and political tensions with the US.  Higher oil prices should also boost confidence in the US economy over the Eurozone.  We have more confidence in a recovery in the GBP.  PM May is likely to resist the latest bout of political turmoil and progress has been made in Brexit planning and negotiations.  BoE rate hike expectations are likely to come back into focus.

Both the EUR and GBP have taken a beating in the last month.  The EUR is near key support and may recover somewhat as risk aversion related to Italy eases and Q2 economic reports recover.  However, we see the bounce as limited with Italian political risk set to linger and the potential for growing trade and political tensions with the US.  Higher oil prices should also boost confidence in the US economy over the Eurozone.  We have more confidence in a recovery in the GBP.  PM May is likely to resist the latest bout of political turmoil and progress has been made in Brexit planning and negotiations.  BoE rate hike expectations are likely to come back into focus.

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

FLASH: UK Inflation Stays Soft Ahead of Summer Rise

• Inflation in May-18 disappointed consensus expectations again as it held at 2.4% on the CPI and slowed to 3.3% on the RPI, both in line with my...

Phil Rush

Preview: Brexit Vote-A-Rama in Commons

The Withdrawal Bill returns to the House of Commons on 12 and 13 June for the consideration of amendments after its bruising passage through the...

Phil Rush

FLASH: Surprise UK Industrial Crash in Apr-18

UK manufacturing output in April abruptly contracted by 1.4% m-o-m, contrary to widespread expectations for slight growth and despite the PMI’s...

Phil Rush

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Trump-Kim Summit, Fed/ECB/BOJ, China Activity, Argie BCRA/CPI, World Cup

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Stay long Korea equities (vs EM) ahead of...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

EUR and GBP Fortunes May Diverge

Both the EUR and GBP have taken a beating in the last month. The EUR is near key support and may recover somewhat as risk aversion related to...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)