Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK output growth disappointed again as it slowed to 0.1% m-o-m. Growth is entirely driven by government spending while most private sectors are contracting.</li>
<li>The return of activity restrictions will weigh on the recovery over the winter. That has long been part of our forecast but will cut into optimism elsewhere. </li>
<li>We still expect the BoE to resist hiking in Dec-21 and take a more gradual path next year.</li>
</ul>


UK output growth disappointed again as it slowed to 0.1% m-o-m. Growth is entirely driven by government spending while most private sectors are contracting.
The return of activity restrictions will weigh on the recovery over the winter. That has long been part of our forecast but will cut into optimism elsewhere. 
We still expect the BoE to resist hiking in Dec-21 and take a more gradual path next year.


<ul>
<li>Covid cases have been rising rapidly with the seasonal change, leading to a return of activity restrictions, consistent with our long-held view.</li>
<li>We believe the breadth and intensity of measures are likely to become more severe through the winter. The omicron-variant lends its name to the known risk of a vaccine-evasive strain.</li>
<li>The risk-minimising political reaction function may tighten far more. The BoE should resist hiking into this, lest it compounds pains excessively. </li>
</ul>


Covid cases have been rising rapidly with the seasonal change, leading to a return of activity restrictions, consistent with our long-held view.
We believe the breadth and intensity of measures are likely to become more severe through the winter. The omicron-variant lends its name to the known risk of a vaccine-evasive strain.
The risk-minimising political reaction function may tighten far more. The BoE should resist hiking into this, lest it compounds pains excessively. 


<ul>
<li>UK retail sales increased for the first time in six months, helping start Q4 surprisingly strongly. The composition was encouragingly consistent with the desirable sort of rotation. </li>
<li>Widely reported supply chain disruption may have brought forward some Christmas purchases, driving the clothing and games surges. </li>
<li>Front-Loading could weigh on growth into yearend, but our warning signal for disappointing consumption has faded.</li>
</ul>


UK retail sales increased for the first time in six months, helping start Q4 surprisingly strongly. The composition was encouragingly consistent with the desirable sort of rotation. 
Widely reported supply chain disruption may have brought forward some Christmas purchases, driving the clothing and games surges. 
Front-Loading could weigh on growth into yearend, but our warning signal for disappointing consumption has faded.


Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Last week's spike in US asset prices, including US Treasuries, in the wake of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, has proved short-lived.  </li>
<li>However, EM currencies have outperformed developed currencies since 1st November thanks partly to EM central bank policy rate hikes, a lack of currency contagion and domestic macro data.</li>
<li>We focus on low-volatility Asian currencies, the under-pressure Norwegian Krone, Polish Zloty,  Hungarian Forint and Euro and the importance of the release of UK retail sales data on Friday.</li>
</ul>


Last week's spike in US asset prices, including US Treasuries, in the wake of gangbuster US CPI-inflation data for October, has proved short-lived.  
However, EM currencies have outperformed developed currencies since 1st November thanks partly to EM central bank policy rate hikes, a lack of currency contagion and domestic macro data.
We focus on low-volatility Asian currencies, the under-pressure Norwegian Krone, Polish Zloty,  Hungarian Forint and Euro and the importance of the release of UK retail sales data on Friday.


FX Round-Up – Calm Before the Next Storm

<ul>
<li>Employment growth remained brisk into furlough’s end, driving the UR to 4.3%. Payroll data suggest things didn’t collapse in October, but business surveys suggest about 0.45% of jobs were cut. </li>
<li>Headline pay growth continued to crash, and the monthly impulse disappointed again, causing the ONS to hack its view of underlying growth towards our gloomy one.</li>
<li>The gap between jobs and wage growth curbs inflationary pressure and the hawkish urgency. </li>
</ul>


Employment growth remained brisk into furlough’s end, driving the UR to 4.3%. Payroll data suggest things didn’t collapse in October, but business surveys suggest about 0.45% of jobs were cut. 
Headline pay growth continued to crash, and the monthly impulse disappointed again, causing the ONS to hack its view of underlying growth towards our gloomy one.
The gap between jobs and wage growth curbs inflationary pressure and the hawkish urgency. 


United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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UK: Output Struggles Before Restrictions

UK output growth disappointed again as most private sectors contracted. The return of activity restrictions will weigh on the recovery over the...

Phil Rush

Covid: Winter Arrives with a Chill

Covid cases have been rising with the seasonal change, leading to a return of restrictions, consistent with our view. The BoE should resist hiking...

Phil Rush

UK: Christmas Comes Early for Retail

UK retail sales increased for the first time in six months with encouraging composition. Supply chain concerns may have brought forward some...

Phil Rush

FX Round-Up – Calm Before the Next Storm

Interest rate and FX vol has subsided with directionality in EM and developed market currencies driven by domestic macro data and monetary...

Olivier Desbarres

UK: Jobs and Wage Growth Gap Gifts Time

UK employment is surging while wage growth is crashing. The gap between jobs and wage growth curbs inflationary pressure and the hawkish urgency.

Phil Rush

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