Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

In this note, we discuss the rise in the volatility of EM currencies as the dollar's volatility picks up and what to expect ahead.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the rise in the volatility of EM currencies as the dollar's volatility picks up and what to expect ahead.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: EM FX Volatility Rises from the Lows

We compare the beta-adjusted performances of EM currencies to identify leaders and laggards in the latest bout of dollar appreciation.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

We compare the beta-adjusted performances of EM currencies to identify leaders and laggards in the latest bout of dollar appreciation.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: Leaders and Laggards in EM in the Dollar’s Latest Appreciation Bout

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

The price of Silver has closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since May 2020. This development draws some attention. While it is not a break in itself, any lower through $24.05 on a close basis would be meaningful bearish sign.We also review the weekly Gold chart which continues to look concerning as we sustain below the 55 week moving average .As Bonds remain stable and the USD looking increasingly bid across many pairs, it is perhaps no wonder that both Silver and Gold are under pressure.

The price of Silver has closed below the 200 day moving average for the first time since May 2020. This development draws some attention. While it is not a break in itself, any lower through $24.05 on a close basis would be meaningful bearish sign.We also review the weekly Gold chart which continues to look concerning as we sustain below the 55 week moving average .As Bonds remain stable and the USD looking increasingly bid across many pairs, it is perhaps no wonder that both Silver and Gold are under pressure.

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK retail sales rebounded by 2.1% m-o-m in Feb-21, as expected, leaving the level about 10% below the Oct-20 peak. GDP has been less sensitive to lockdown this time so won’t bounce by as much, although a 25% recovery of Jan-21's fall would be good news.</li>
<li>Consumers have been shielded from the economic pain of lockdown but in March they stopped assuming that outperformance would extend through the year ahead. Mobility has improved recently but the UK remains among the most depressed in the world.</li>
</ul>


UK retail sales rebounded by 2.1% m-o-m in Feb-21, as expected, leaving the level about 10% below the Oct-20 peak. GDP has been less sensitive to lockdown this time so won’t bounce by as much, although a 25% recovery of Jan-21's fall would be good news.
Consumers have been shielded from the economic pain of lockdown but in March they stopped assuming that outperformance would extend through the year ahead. Mobility has improved recently but the UK remains among the most depressed in the world.


<ul>
<li>UK inflation disappointed in Feb-21 as it slowed to 0.4% y-o-y on the CPI and held at 1.4% on the RPI. Garment prices were the weakest on record for a February CPI. Games also weighed on the CPI, with some payback likely, while the RPI was more hit by insurance.</li>
<li>Locked down clothing shops have struggled to shift stock, smothering a strange surge from 2020 at the start of 2021. Our forecasts are lowered by the news, especially on the RPI. Hawkish labour market news should at least offsets this for the BoE, in our view.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation disappointed in Feb-21 as it slowed to 0.4% y-o-y on the CPI and held at 1.4% on the RPI. Garment prices were the weakest on record for a February CPI. Games also weighed on the CPI, with some payback likely, while the RPI was more hit by insurance.
Locked down clothing shops have struggled to shift stock, smothering a strange surge from 2020 at the start of 2021. Our forecasts are lowered by the news, especially on the RPI. Hawkish labour market news should at least offsets this for the BoE, in our view.


UK: Disinflation During Lockdown Disaster

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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FX Dashboard: EM FX Volatility Rises from the Lows

In this note, we discuss the rise in the volatility of EM currencies as the dollar's volatility picks up and what to expect ahead.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Leaders and Laggards in EM in the Dollar’s Latest Appreciation Bout

We compare the beta-adjusted performances of EM currencies to identify leaders and laggards in the latest bout of dollar appreciation.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

No Silver Lining, No Golden Egg

Silver and Gold are back under pressure with Bonds stable and the USD looking bid. Any lower on Silver will amount to a bearish break

Shyam Devani

UK: Consumers Stop Feeling Special

Consumers have been shielded from lockdown pain but in March they stopped assuming outperformance would extend. Mobility has improved recently but...

Phil Rush

UK: Disinflation During Lockdown Disaster

UK inflation disappointed as clothing shops struggled to shift stock, smothering its 2020 surge. Our forecasts are lowered, especially on the RPI,...

Phil Rush

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