Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).</li>
<li>There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> will have passives buying, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> switches to a sell.</li>
</ul>


Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).
There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.

NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) will have passives buying, while NIO (9866 HK) switches to a sell.


Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).


Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> benefit; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> loses out.</li>
<li>The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a>. </li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.

NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), NIO (9866 HK), New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) benefit; GDS Holdings (9698 HK) loses out.
The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the Hang Seng TECH Index. 


Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> put out June rebal predictions on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-hscei-jun25-large-price-swings-needed-to-trigger-index-changes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-hstech-jun25-us-204mn-one-way-no-index-changes-likely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-hsiii-jun25-sep25-capping-flows-in-june-and-index-changes-in-september" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Internet &amp; Infotech</a> on 17-Mar-25 (and 7 mainland indices 19-21 March) and...</li>
<li>...the Quiddity team put out its regular predictions of all 7 major HS indices and 11 mainland indices, but on 21-March after the close, the Hang Seng team updated methodology.</li>
<li>They changed the way float is calculated for Secondary Listings in Hang Seng indices. It affects only a few names, but this adds US$2.7bn of buying to three names.</li>
</ul>



Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA put out June rebal predictions on HSCEI, HSTECH, and Hang Seng Internet &amp; Infotech on 17-Mar-25 (and 7 mainland indices 19-21 March) and...
...the Quiddity team put out its regular predictions of all 7 major HS indices and 11 mainland indices, but on 21-March after the close, the Hang Seng team updated methodology.
They changed the way float is calculated for Secondary Listings in Hang Seng indices. It affects only a few names, but this adds US$2.7bn of buying to three names.


Changes to Hang Seng Methodology - Early Doors but $3bn a Side Across Major Indices

<ul>
<li>The huge rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunevision-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:110:1" rel="noopener">SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK)</a> will bring passive inflows to the stock after being added to a global sector index.</li>
<li>Estimated passive buying is 19.4m shares (US$22m; 0.55x ADV) with implementation scheduled for the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>Shorts have risen sharply in the last couple of weeks and cumulative excess volume has jumped too. But we see a similar pattern in a close peer.</li>
</ul>


The huge rally in SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK) will bring passive inflows to the stock after being added to a global sector index.
Estimated passive buying is 19.4m shares (US$22m; 0.55x ADV) with implementation scheduled for the close of trading on 21 March.
Shorts have risen sharply in the last couple of weeks and cumulative excess volume has jumped too. But we see a similar pattern in a close peer.


Sunevision (1686 HK): Data Center Rally Brings Passive Flows

China

GDS Holdings is a leading developer and operator of high-performance data centers in China. The company provides colocation, managed hosting, and managed cloud services, serving hyperscale cloud service providers, large internet companies, financial institutions, and telecommunications carriers. GDS Holdings was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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GDS Holdings (9698 HK)

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

ADR depositary holding changes alter FAFs and flows. Estimated round-trip trade is US$5.1bn now. NetEase has outperformed the HSCI by 15.5% since...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September

We expect US$317mn one-way flows in June 2025 and then there could be three ADDs and three DELs in September 2025. The September 2025 rankings can...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

The big buys are up in the last week: NetEase (+3.75%), Baidu (+2.1%), Trip.com (+1.8%) while the headline indices are down: HSI (-1.1%), HSCEI (...

Brian Freitas

Changes to Hang Seng Methodology - Early Doors but $3bn a Side Across Major Indices

A few days ago, the Hang Seng Index Team announced a rule change for counting float of Secondary Listings. Small beans perhaps but the top three...

Travis Lundy

Sunevision (1686 HK): Data Center Rally Brings Passive Flows

Sunevision has been added to a global sector index. Estimated passive buying is 19.4m shares (US$22m; 0.55x ADV) at the close on 21 March. Short...

Brian Freitas

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