Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10619:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS)</a> is "expensive" on my monitor. But that doesn't paint the whole picture. And what's up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a>'s deconsolidation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech (LEGN US)</a>?</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Hanwha and Genscript Biotech/Legend Biotech are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) is "expensive" on my monitor. But that doesn't paint the whole picture. And what's up with Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)'s deconsolidation of Legend Biotech (LEGN US)?
Preceding my comments on Hanwha and Genscript Biotech/Legend Biotech are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Hanwha Corp; Genscript Biotech/Legend Biotech

<ul>
<li>Biotech play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a> and ~48%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech (LEGN US)</a> popped recently on a reported tilt for Legend.  Neither Genscript nor Legend made exchange announcements supporting the claim. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Genscript/Legend are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Biotech play Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) and ~48%-held Legend Biotech (LEGN US) popped recently on a reported tilt for Legend.  Neither Genscript nor Legend made exchange announcements supporting the claim. 
Preceding my comments on Genscript/Legend are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Legend (LEGN US) Offer Or Not, Genscript (1548 HK) Is Attractive

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The rebounds in healthcare sector is more due to oversold. Unfriendly macro environment could make stock price fluctuate largely.Investors would find better places to long than the current valuation level.</li>
<li>The new document about payment management measures for new technology out of CHS-DRG payment scope is an important “policy correction” signal, but there are still problems remain to be solved.</li>
<li>We analyzed our top picks and investment logic in CXO, pharmaceuticals and medical device industry. Overall, as a “defensive sector”, China healthcare has investment value in such complicated external environment.</li>
</ul>


The rebounds in healthcare sector is more due to oversold. Unfriendly macro environment could make stock price fluctuate largely.Investors would find better places to long than the current valuation level.
The new document about payment management measures for new technology out of CHS-DRG payment scope is an important “policy correction” signal, but there are still problems remain to be solved.
We analyzed our top picks and investment logic in CXO, pharmaceuticals and medical device industry. Overall, as a “defensive sector”, China healthcare has investment value in such complicated external environment.


2022H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Picks

Equity Capital Markets

China Medical System / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from "dependence on generic drugs" to "innovation-driven drugs".</li>
<li>However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.</li>
<li>After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance. </li>
</ul>


CMS announced proposed secondary listing on the SGX-ST. The Company is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. Its growth logic is shifting from "dependence on generic drugs" to "innovation-driven drugs".
However, the valuation logic has changed. The capital market will give high valuations to companies that achieve overseas licensing-out deals, rather than the attractive DCF model based on traditional business.
After 2023/2024 performance downturn, revenue growth is expected to return to positive in 2025. But in essence, CMS’s current business model is license-in, which will affect the future valuation performance. 


Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.</li>
<li>Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry's CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.</li>
<li>Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.</li>
</ul>


The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.
Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry's CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.
Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

Hong Kong

Genscript Biotech Corp is biotech service company. The Company provides life science services and products and pre-clinical drug development services.

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Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)

StubWorld: Hanwha Corp; Genscript Biotech/Legend Biotech

Hanwha Corp appears attractive here. The pushback is that HC is thinly traded. And Genscript’s deconsolidation has minimal impact on financials...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Legend (LEGN US) Offer Or Not, Genscript (1548 HK) Is Attractive

Genscript appears attractive - not just Legend's product pipeline and strong partnerships; but also Genscript's stub ops have been performing well....

David Blennerhassett

2022H2 China Healthcare Investment Strategy and Top Picks

We analyze the investment strategy,top picks and logic in CXO,pharmaceuticals and medical device industry.As a “defensive sector”,China healthcare...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO China Medical System (867 HK) - About the IPO in Singapore and Concerns on Valuation Outlook

Listing in SGX opens a new chapter and CMS is undergoing pipeline adjustments and strategic transformation. But as valuation logic changes, license...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies may burst soon, with some founders/shareholders already cashing out. Innovent's Placing Price of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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