Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentrack-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2752:1" rel="noopener">Gentrack (GTK NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorchester-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1854:1" rel="noopener">Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-edge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.</li>
<li>The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed (SID) with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34 per share, a 30.1% premium to the undisturbed price (12.6% premium to the last close).</li>
<li>The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (OIO &amp; US antitrust) approvals. The scheme meeting is in 1Q23. </li>
<li>The offer is light. A concentrated shareholder register and signs of retail opposition are risks. A 75% deal probability, implies buying up to NZ$1.27 per share.</li>
</ul>



Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) entered a scheme implementation deed (SID) with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34 per share, a 30.1% premium to the undisturbed price (12.6% premium to the last close).
The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (OIO &amp; US antitrust) approvals. The scheme meeting is in 1Q23. 
The offer is light. A concentrated shareholder register and signs of retail opposition are risks. A 75% deal probability, implies buying up to NZ$1.27 per share.


Pushpay Enters a SID with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a> confirmed that it had received a "<em>revised</em>" indicative non-binding proposal from a shareholder consortium, believed to be Sixth Street/BGH, which has a 20.3% stake.</li>
<li>The proposal is “<em>to acquire the Company at a premium to Friday’s closing share price.</em>” Due to the sell-off, Sixth Street/BGH will likely offer a lower premium than initially intended.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that Sixth Street/BGH’s offer is around A$1.30 per share. While not a knockout offer, it is a good starting point in the current grim market conditions.</li>
</ul>



Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) confirmed that it had received a "revised" indicative non-binding proposal from a shareholder consortium, believed to be Sixth Street/BGH, which has a 20.3% stake.
The proposal is “to acquire the Company at a premium to Friday’s closing share price.” Due to the sell-off, Sixth Street/BGH will likely offer a lower premium than initially intended.
Our best guess is that Sixth Street/BGH’s offer is around A$1.30 per share. While not a knockout offer, it is a good starting point in the current grim market conditions.


Pushpay Draws Another Sixth Street/BGH Offer

<ul>
<li>Sixth Street and BGH Capital entered into a cooperation agreement with the aim to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a> through a scheme of arrangement. They have a combined 20.3% stake. </li>
<li>In addition to Sixth Street/BGH, Pushpay also noted expressions of interest from multiple parties. The high recurring revenue, profitability and cash generation make it a target. </li>
<li>As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, we think that a bid of at least A$1.46 (30% takeover premium) will be necessary for due diligence access. </li>
</ul>


Sixth Street and BGH Capital entered into a cooperation agreement with the aim to acquire Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) through a scheme of arrangement. They have a combined 20.3% stake. 
In addition to Sixth Street/BGH, Pushpay also noted expressions of interest from multiple parties. The high recurring revenue, profitability and cash generation make it a target. 
As the Australian takeover premium ranges from 20% to 40%, we think that a bid of at least A$1.46 (30% takeover premium) will be necessary for due diligence access. 


BGH and Sixth Street to Lob an Offer for Pushpay?

New Zealand

Gentrack Group Limited is a computer consulting company. The Company provides software solutions to energy & water utilities and airports.

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Gentrack (GTK NZ)

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Pushpay Enters a SID with Sixth Street/BGH at NZ$1.34

The offer is light. A concentrated shareholder register and signs of retail opposition are risks. A 75% deal probability, implies buying up to...

Arun George

Pushpay Draws Another Sixth Street/BGH Offer

Sixth Street/BGH are showing that they are determined suitors despite poor market conditions. Buy the shares as discussions will at least lead to...

Arun George

BGH and Sixth Street to Lob an Offer for Pushpay?

Sixth Street and BGH entered into a cooperation agreement with the aim to acquire Pushpay. They have a combined 20.3% stake. We think that a bid of...

Arun George

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