Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guotai Junan International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. </li>
<li>GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22740:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH)</a> (GHS) - see <a href="https://skr.ma/aWiHx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go</a>. </li>
<li>GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? </li>
</ul>


Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH) (GHS) - see GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go. 
GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? 


Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

<ul>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/gQ5tZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK): Expect A Founder's Scheme</a>, following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>'s (GNH) suspension, an Offer from Hung Hon Man, GNH's chairman (&amp; founder), was expected.</li>
<li>And that is what unfolded late Friday night (17th July). Hung is Offering HK$4/share, comprising a HK$2 consideration + HK$2 special dividend. Terms appear not to be final.</li>
<li>Terms are also low-balled. A 17.6% premium to undisturbed. And a 62.8% discount to NAV. Yet minorities are indifferent looking at AGM voting. I'm guessing this gets up, as is.</li>
</ul>


As discussed in Get Nice (64 HK): Expect A Founder's Scheme, following Get Nice (64 HK)'s (GNH) suspension, an Offer from Hung Hon Man, GNH's chairman (&amp; founder), was expected.
And that is what unfolded late Friday night (17th July). Hung is Offering HK$4/share, comprising a HK$2 consideration + HK$2 special dividend. Terms appear not to be final.
Terms are also low-balled. A 17.6% premium to undisturbed. And a 62.8% discount to NAV. Yet minorities are indifferent looking at AGM voting. I'm guessing this gets up, as is.


Get Nice (64 HK): Hung's (Expected) Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is

<ul>
<li>I tally 29 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Inc (4324 JP)</a> had finalised plans to take its system integrator subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-soken-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20535:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Soken (4812 JP)</a> private.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube Holdings (QUB AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-dry-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13528:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 29 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: that Dentsu Inc (4324 JP) had finalised plans to take its system integrator subsidiary Dentsu Soken (4812 JP) private.
Key updates/news also took place on: Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), and Nippon Dry Chemical (1909 JP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Info Services Intl Dentsu, Perpetual, Atlas Arteria, Qube, Nippon Dry Chem

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> is probably too cheap. There is a fair bit of "easy" value there even assuming all the equity affiliate stakes are worth, well, nothing.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a> (CRP)'s 81.81%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-new-energy-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50306:1" rel="noopener">China Resources New Energy (001248 CH)</a> xlosed up ~137% on debut, and worth ~350% of CRP's market cap. That's not sustainable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> sticks to its guns, urging shareholders to hold their stock, signalling IFM can pay more. But realistically, IFM has declared terms best &amp; final.</li>
</ul>



Digital Garage (4819 JP) is probably too cheap. There is a fair bit of "easy" value there even assuming all the equity affiliate stakes are worth, well, nothing.

China Resources Power (836 HK) (CRP)'s 81.81%-held China Resources New Energy (001248 CH) xlosed up ~137% on debut, and worth ~350% of CRP's market cap. That's not sustainable.

Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) sticks to its guns, urging shareholders to hold their stock, signalling IFM can pay more. But realistically, IFM has declared terms best &amp; final.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Digital Garage/Kakaku, Chine Resources Power, Atlas Arteria

<ul>
<li>Back on the 5th November 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a> (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)</a> (GNF).</li>
<li>It was an uninspiring Offer; although a HK$0.50/share dividend helped the deal got up. At the time, my bet was GNH, at 0.21x P/B, was next to be privatised.</li>
<li>On Friday (26th June), GNH was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Expect Hung Hon Man (chairman/founder), with 51.67% of shares out, to seek GNH's delisting via a Scheme.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 5th November 2024, Get Nice (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial (1469 HK) (GNF).
It was an uninspiring Offer; although a HK$0.50/share dividend helped the deal got up. At the time, my bet was GNH, at 0.21x P/B, was next to be privatised.
On Friday (26th June), GNH was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Expect Hung Hon Man (chairman/founder), with 51.67% of shares out, to seek GNH's delisting via a Scheme.


Get Nice (64 HK): Expect A Founder's Scheme

Hong Kong

Get Nice Financial Group Limited is an investment holding company that provides a comprehensive range of financial services. Its core activities include securities margin financing, stockbroking, futures and options broking, underwriting and placements, corporate advisory services, asset management, and investments in financial instruments. The company is headquartered at Cosco Tower in Central, Hong Kong, and was incorporated in 2015.

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Get Nice Financial (1469 HK)

Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

I think around $3/share would be viewed as fair. Guotai Haitong Securities has the clout to go MUCH higher. The question is whether they need to.

David Blennerhassett

Get Nice (64 HK): Hung's (Expected) Low-Balled Offer. It Is What It Is

It would be refreshing to see disruptor(s) build a blocking stake and force a bump. Probably wishful thinking, as Hung takes advantage of GNH's...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Info Services Intl Dentsu, Perpetual, Atlas Arteria, Qube, Nippon Dry Chem

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Digital Garage/Kakaku, Chine Resources Power, Atlas Arteria

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Get Nice (64 HK): Expect A Founder's Scheme

My best guess (blue sky) is a 40% discount to book - or ~HK6/share Offer. Optically this could be done at HK$4.50 or 32% premium to undisturbed;...

David Blennerhassett

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