Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral view on 2Q25E, expecting core profit to grow by 5% YoY and 4% QoQ, bringing 1H25E core profit to 62% of the full-year 2025E estimate.</li><li>Our current forecasts remain unchanged.</li><li>The valuation metrics continue to support a neutral view on the current fundamentals. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral view on 2Q25E, expecting core profit to grow by 5% YoY and 4% QoQ, bringing 1H25E core profit to 62% of the full-year 2025E estimate.Our current forecasts remain unchanged.The valuation metrics continue to support a neutral view on the current fundamentals. 

GFPT - 2Q25E Core Profit to Have Increased 5% YoY and 4% QoQ

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July. </li>
<li>Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer. </li>
</ul>


The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July. 
Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer. 


Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

<ul>
<li>PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.</li>
<li>The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold. </li>
<li>The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote. </li>
</ul>


PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.
The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold. 
The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote. 


Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer

<ul><li>1Q25 profit grew both YoY and QoQ, accounting for 33% of the 2025E forecast. However, the share price has already factored in the strong 1Q25 results.</li><li>Core profit and net profit for 2025E are also expected to retreat by 4% and 9% YoY, respectively.</li><li>According to the valuation metrics, the current fundamentals remain neutral, but the long-term outlook has been revised from poor to weak, and the tactical view has been raised to limited upside (previously very limited upside). </li></ul>

1Q25 profit grew both YoY and QoQ, accounting for 33% of the 2025E forecast. However, the share price has already factored in the strong 1Q25 results.Core profit and net profit for 2025E are also expected to retreat by 4% and 9% YoY, respectively.According to the valuation metrics, the current fundamentals remain neutral, but the long-term outlook has been revised from poor to weak, and the tactical view has been raised to limited upside (previously very limited upside). 

GFPT - 1Q25 Earnings Grew 42%YoY and 102% QoQ, 12% Better than Expected

<ul><li>1Q25E core profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, accounting for 30% of the 2025E full-year forecast.</li><li>However, the share price has already priced in the positive earnings outlook for 1Q25E.</li><li>Moreover, both core and net profit for 2025E are expected to decline by 4% and 9% YoY, respectively.</li></ul>

1Q25E core profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, accounting for 30% of the 2025E full-year forecast.However, the share price has already priced in the positive earnings outlook for 1Q25E.Moreover, both core and net profit for 2025E are expected to decline by 4% and 9% YoY, respectively.

GFPT - Expect 1Q25E Core Profit Growth of 27% YoY, 80% QoQ

Thailand

GFPT Public Company Limited operates a fully integrated poultry business, encompassing feed mills, breeder and broiler farms, hatcheries, chicken evisceration, and processed food production. The company produces and distributes fresh, frozen, and cooked chicken products, as well as land and aquatic animal feed, for both domestic and international markets. GFPT was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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GFPT (GFPT TB)

GFPT - 2Q25E Core Profit to Have Increased 5% YoY and 4% QoQ

We maintain a Neutral view on 2Q25E, expecting core profit to grow by 5% YoY and 4% QoQ, bringing 1H25E core profit to 62% of the full-year 2025E...

Krungthai XSpring

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The composite document is out. The IFA opines that PAG’s offer (HK$2.00 per H share) is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 24 July. At the last...

Arun George

GFPT - 1Q25 Earnings Grew 42%YoY and 102% QoQ, 12% Better than Expected

1Q25 profit grew both YoY and QoQ, accounting for 33% of the 2025E forecast. However, the share price has already factored in the strong 1Q25 results.

Krungthai XSpring

GFPT - Expect 1Q25E Core Profit Growth of 27% YoY, 80% QoQ

1Q25E core profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, accounting for 30% of the 2025E full-year forecast. However, the share price has already priced...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GFPT - 2Q25E Core Profit to Have Increased 5% YoY and 4% QoQ

We maintain a Neutral view on 2Q25E, expecting core profit to grow by 5% YoY and 4% QoQ, bringing 1H25E core profit to 62% of the full-year 2025E...

Krungthai XSpring

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The composite document is out. The IFA opines that PAG’s offer (HK$2.00 per H share) is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 24 July. At the last...

Arun George

Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer

The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. For an end-of-Nov payment, the gross/annualised...

Arun George

GFPT - 1Q25 Earnings Grew 42%YoY and 102% QoQ, 12% Better than Expected

1Q25 profit grew both YoY and QoQ, accounting for 33% of the 2025E forecast. However, the share price has already factored in the strong 1Q25 results.

Krungthai XSpring

GFPT - Expect 1Q25E Core Profit Growth of 27% YoY, 80% QoQ

1Q25E core profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, accounting for 30% of the 2025E full-year forecast. However, the share price has already priced...

Krungthai XSpring