'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 9th APRIL •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/934/original/2021-04-11_07-45-16.png?1618170004" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199934"></figure></section><p><strong>RESULTS </strong>- Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a> is still mired in net losses and is underperforming most of its listed subsidiaries. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a> saw its first quarterly year-on-year sales gain since Y19-Q1 and is forecasting (see below) a return to near-double-digit operating margins this year. For more, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio's </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yaskawa-is-sigma-x-going-to-drive-large-margin-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50190" rel="noopener">Yaskawa – Is Sigma-X Going to Drive Large Margin Gains?</a>.  Amongst mid-cap construction machinery companies, the divergence between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeuchi-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15344:1" rel="noopener">Takeuchi Mfg (6432 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giken-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8955:1" rel="noopener">Giken (6289 JP)</a> is notable.     </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/937/original/image_41476225521618176041754.png?1618176043" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199937"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/938/original/image_43430948031618176155426.png?1618176156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199938"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/939/original/image_15842165641618176543024.png?1618176544" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199939"></figure><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 9th APRIL •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/936/original/2021-04-11_07-45-32.png?1618170242" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199936"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Just 65% of the annual revisions announced were positive, with Yasukawa the leading large-cap. In contrast to its results, Aeon is expecting to beat its listed grocery chain subsidiaries - all of whom are forecasting declines in profits. </p>

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 9th APRIL •RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP) is still mired in net losses and is underperforming most of its listed subsidiaries. Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) saw its first quarterly year-on-year sales gain since Y19-Q1 and is forecasting (see below) a return to near-double-digit operating margins this year. For more, see Mio's Yaskawa – Is Sigma-X Going to Drive Large Margin Gains?.  Amongst mid-cap construction machinery companies, the divergence between Takeuchi Mfg (6432 JP) and Giken (6289 JP) is notable.     • LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 9th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Just 65% of the annual revisions announced were positive, with Yasukawa the leading large-cap. In contrast to its results, Aeon is expecting to beat its listed grocery chain subsidiaries - all of whom are forecasting declines in profits. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/203/original/2020-11-17_12-24-48.png?1605583510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172203"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>BRIGHTER, LATER</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by ¥1.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward multiple is unchanged at 31 times, despite a 7% rise in market capitalisation. Although this 'season' was the best in two years in terms of forecast profits, trailing earnings are still falling, by almost ¥3 trillion in the case of operating income. Much of the market optimism rests on a Japan experiencing a mild COVID winter and the impact of the incoming Biden administration's policy pronouncements on the US dollar. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/219/original/2020-11-17_13-33-54.png?1605587647" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172219"></figure></section><p><strong>5.2% TTM OPERATING MARGINS</strong> - Aggregate Operating Income has declined by a third year-on-year on a 10% decline in revenues. The good news is that the pace of decline is slowing. Nevertheless, all of the Abe-era gains in earnings have now been unwound.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/230/original/2020-11-17_13-47-49.png?1605588488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172230"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/394/original/2020-11-18_07-24-55.png?1605651921" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172394"></figure></section><p><strong>4.8% FORECAST OPERATING MARGINS</strong> - Operating margins are forecast to contract further over the next five months to 4.8%. Forecast revenues and operating income are both 3% lower than three months ago, the slowest rate of attrition in three quarters. The current market euphoria, which has taken total capitalisation to within 3% of the pre-COVID high is implying that the next 'print' of this data series, will be positive.    </p></section><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/256/original/2020-11-17_14-22-29.png?1605590564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172256"></figure></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - The sharp recovery in earnings momentum, which the market has been discounting is now materialising. Our Forecast/Revision Score has returned to March levels while the trailing Results Score has bottomed out well above the low of 2009. </p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"></section><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. </p></div></section></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by ¥1.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward multiple is unchanged at 31 times, despite a 7% rise in market capitalisation. Although this 'season' was the best in two years in terms of forecast profits, trailing earnings are still falling, by almost ¥3 trillion in the case of operating income. Much of the market optimism rests on a Japan experiencing a mild COVID winter and the impact of the incoming Biden administration's policy pronouncements on the US dollar. 
5.2% TTM OPERATING MARGINS - Aggregate Operating Income has declined by a third year-on-year on a 10% decline in revenues. The good news is that the pace of decline is slowing. Nevertheless, all of the Abe-era gains in earnings have now been unwound.
4.8% FORECAST OPERATING MARGINS - Operating margins are forecast to contract further over the next five months to 4.8%. Forecast revenues and operating income are both 3% lower than three months ago, the slowest rate of attrition in three quarters. The current market euphoria, which has taken total capitalisation to within 3% of the pre-COVID high is implying that the next 'print' of this data series, will be positive.    POSITIVE MOMENTUM - The sharp recovery in earnings momentum, which the market has been discounting is now materialising. Our Forecast/Revision Score has returned to March levels while the trailing Results Score has bottomed out well above the low of 2009. 
In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/005/original/2020-04-02_06-04-47.png?1585775193" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126005"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>WEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL</strong> - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a></strong>halving its Ordinary Profit forecast and almost dipping into a net loss. The<strong> ¥209 billon</strong> worth of revisions relates to market value adjustments at <strong>Frontier Life </strong>and a decline in the share price of equity affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/janus-henderson-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26077:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Janus Henderson (JHG US)</strong></a>. The dividend remains unchanged. Of the sixteen revisions and five results announced, our positive/negative scoring ratio was <strong>4:10</strong> for revisions and <strong>2:3</strong> for results.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/006/original/File%202020-04-01%2020%2015%2017.jpeg?1585775842" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126006"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>MASKING THE PROBLEM</strong> - Despite calls from medical experts and widespread rumours of stricter measures, the Abe Government has limited its response to extending school closures for another month and sending every household two washable cloth masks. Mask wearing and social distancing are suddenly now rife in political circles. Unfortunately, so are some xenophobic comments. In a similar vein, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>  has stopped receiving airmail to be sent to 126 countries and any mail to a further 27.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/023/original/2020-04-02_07-13-19.png?1585779225" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126023"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>MARKETS</strong> - The BoJ's market intervention was only half that of the previous four, however, was still over 4% of TOPIX Value Traded.  We continue to recommend hitting their bid and waiting for the absolute value opportunity.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsWEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)halving its Ordinary Profit forecast and almost dipping into a net loss. The ¥209 billon worth of revisions relates to market value adjustments at Frontier Life and a decline in the share price of equity affiliate Janus Henderson (JHG US). The dividend remains unchanged. Of the sixteen revisions and five results announced, our positive/negative scoring ratio was 4:10 for revisions and 2:3 for results.Source • NHKMASKING THE PROBLEM - Despite calls from medical experts and widespread rumours of stricter measures, the Abe Government has limited its response to extending school closures for another month and sending every household two washable cloth masks. Mask wearing and social distancing are suddenly now rife in political circles. Unfortunately, so are some xenophobic comments. In a similar vein, Japan Post (6178 JP)  has stopped receiving airmail to be sent to 126 countries and any mail to a further 27.Source • Japan AnalyticsMARKETS - The BoJ's market intervention was only half that of the previous four, however, was still over 4% of TOPIX Value Traded.  We continue to recommend hitting their bid and waiting for the absolute value opportunity.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The MBO price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a> has increased by 42.4% from JPY2,050 to JPY2,919 per share. The revised offer represents a P/B of 1.01x.</li>
<li>While Effissimo has publicly built a 13.25% ownership stake, behind the scenes, Murakami agitated for a bump by suggesting that he would help fund the increase in the consideration.</li>
<li>The Ogawas rebuffed Murakami's funding but secured his verbal agreement to tender. While Effissimo’s intentions remain unknown, it is likely to support the revised offer. </li>
</ul>


The MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) has increased by 42.4% from JPY2,050 to JPY2,919 per share. The revised offer represents a P/B of 1.01x.
While Effissimo has publicly built a 13.25% ownership stake, behind the scenes, Murakami agitated for a bump by suggesting that he would help fund the increase in the consideration.
The Ogawas rebuffed Murakami's funding but secured his verbal agreement to tender. While Effissimo’s intentions remain unknown, it is likely to support the revised offer. 


Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): The Wow Factor as MBO Bumped by 42% to JPY2,919

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p><strong>SMALL-MIDCAP TOPIX INCLUSION</strong></p><p>At the end of last month, Japanese pile installation equipment specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8955" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8955:1">Giken Ltd (6289 JP)</a>, moved from the TSE2 to the TSE1. The company announced it at the time (and it had been confirmed 3 weeks earlier on June 9th.  </p><p>This event triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index. According to the TOPIX Index Methodology (described on p7 of the <a href="http://www.jpx.co.jp/english/markets/indices/topix/tvdivq00000030ne-att/e_cal_3_topix.pdf" target="_blank">TOPIX Index Guidebook</a>), inclusion will be on the last business day on the month following entrance into the First Section. <strong>This means</strong>…</p>

SMALL-MIDCAP TOPIX INCLUSIONAt the end of last month, Japanese pile installation equipment specialist Giken Ltd (6289 JP), moved from the TSE2 to the TSE1. The company announced it at the time (and it had been confirmed 3 weeks earlier on June 9th.  This event triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index. According to the TOPIX Index Methodology (described on p7 of the TOPIX Index Guidebook), inclusion will be on the last business day on the month following entrance into the First Section. This means…

Giken (6289) TSE1 Promotion & TOPIX Inclusion July 28th

Japan

GIKEN LTD. manufactures hydraulic pile pressing and extracting machines in various sizes. The Company's machines include automatic pilers for hard soil sites and automatic pilers compatible with wide hoop piles. Giken Seisakusho also produces construction-related material handling equipment and provides construction services.

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Giken Ltd (6289 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

WEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)halving its Ordinary Profit...

Campbell Gunn

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): The Wow Factor as MBO Bumped by 42% to JPY2,919

I expected a bump, but not to this level. Murakami, who was agitating behind the scenes, will tender. Effissimo has not telegraphed its intention...

Arun George

Giken (6289) TSE1 Promotion & TOPIX Inclusion July 28th

SMALL-MIDCAP TOPIX INCLUSIONAt the end of last month, Japanese pile installation equipment specialist Giken Ltd (6289 JP), moved from the TSE2 to...

Travis Lundy

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52-week Range

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

WEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)halving its Ordinary Profit...

Campbell Gunn

Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): The Wow Factor as MBO Bumped by 42% to JPY2,919

I expected a bump, but not to this level. Murakami, who was agitating behind the scenes, will tender. Effissimo has not telegraphed its intention...

Arun George

Giken (6289) TSE1 Promotion & TOPIX Inclusion July 28th

SMALL-MIDCAP TOPIX INCLUSIONAt the end of last month, Japanese pile installation equipment specialist Giken Ltd (6289 JP), moved from the TSE2 to...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi