Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> reported a decent quarter, led by 3% YoY sales growth and 8% YoY profit growth, with volumes declining 3% YoY while ASPs increased 6% YoY.</li>
<li>Strong balance sheet with PHP 19.3bn in net cash (25% of market capitalization); the company increased its dividend for the quarter by 12.5% YoY to 4.5 pesos/share (~18 pesos/share).</li>
<li>Trading at 8.4x FY26 PE, with a 6.5% dividend yield, ROCE&gt;35%, and steady results in a weak demand environment, this is a good name to explore. </li>
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Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported a decent quarter, led by 3% YoY sales growth and 8% YoY profit growth, with volumes declining 3% YoY while ASPs increased 6% YoY.
Strong balance sheet with PHP 19.3bn in net cash (25% of market capitalization); the company increased its dividend for the quarter by 12.5% YoY to 4.5 pesos/share (~18 pesos/share).
Trading at 8.4x FY26 PE, with a 6.5% dividend yield, ROCE&gt;35%, and steady results in a weak demand environment, this is a good name to explore. 


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM): Q1FY26 Results Update,>35% ROCE Stock Trading at 8.4x FY26 PE

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FY25 delivered record net income of PHP 8.6bn (+19.5% YoY), EPS of PHP 30.1, and EBITDA margins expanding 170bps to 16.1% — driven by molasses cost relief.</li>
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Balance sheet fortress: PHP 17.1 bn cash and investments (22% of Mkt Cap), zero debt. The company still makes a 39% ROCE on its business. </li>
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The dividend is likely to remain at 16 pesos/share (~6% yield) as the company will invest 6 bn pesos in modernization. With sufficient cover for molasses margins can expand further. </li>
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FY25 delivered record net income of PHP 8.6bn (+19.5% YoY), EPS of PHP 30.1, and EBITDA margins expanding 170bps to 16.1% — driven by molasses cost relief.

Balance sheet fortress: PHP 17.1 bn cash and investments (22% of Mkt Cap), zero debt. The company still makes a 39% ROCE on its business. 

The dividend is likely to remain at 16 pesos/share (~6% yield) as the company will invest 6 bn pesos in modernization. With sufficient cover for molasses margins can expand further. 


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) FY25: Monopoly Gin Business At 9x PE, >35% ROCE, Net Cash, And 6% Yield

Philippine Stock Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.</li>
<li>Our top picks are: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-container-term-svcs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a> </li>
<li>We focus on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippine-stock-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23182:1" rel="noopener">Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM)</a>, the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.</li>
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We established metrics focused on high ROCE, sustainable 10-15% YoY growth, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation: essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities in the Philippines.
Our top picks are: Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), ICTSI (ICT PM), and Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) 
We focus on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), the cheapest exchange trading at 11.3x FY26 PE, with a few updates on the name this week.


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - July 2026

<ul>
<li>We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.</li>
<li>We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.</li>
<li>Read our recent initiation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ictsi-ict-pm-terminal-operator-serial-grower-with-pricing-power-20-roce-30-net-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:182122" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM): Terminal Operator, Serial Grower With Pricing Power, 20% ROCE, 30% Net Margins</a> </li>
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We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
Read our recent initiation on ICTSI (ICT PM): Terminal Operator, Serial Grower With Pricing Power, 20% ROCE, 30% Net Margins 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - October 2025

<ul>
<li>We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.</li>
<li>We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.</li>
<li>Read our initiation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asian-terminals-inc-ati-pm-steady-and-cheap-container-port-terminal-operator" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:192234" rel="noopener">Asian Terminals Inc (ATI PM): Steady And Cheap Container Port Terminal Operator</a>, and our updates on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-keepers-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23003:1" rel="noopener">The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shakey-s-pizza-asia-ventures" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23706:1" rel="noopener">Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM)</a> </li>
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We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for mid and small-cap companies in the Philippines.
We established metrics focusing on high ROCE, sustainable growth of 10-15% YoY, robust balance sheets, and prudent capital allocation, essential elements for identifying potential multi-bagger opportunities.
Read our initiation Asian Terminals Inc (ATI PM): Steady And Cheap Container Port Terminal Operator, and our updates on The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM) / Shakey's Pizza (PIZZA PM) 


Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas - August 2025

Philippines

Ginebra San Miguel, Inc. is a Philippines-based company engaged in the manufacture and sale of alcoholic beverages, including gins, brandies, wines, and distilled spirits such as vodka and rum. It is the world's largest gin producer by volume and markets brands like Ginebra San Miguel Gin, GSM Blue Gin, Primera Light Brandy, and Vino Kulafu. The company is headquartered in Mandaluyong City, Philippines, and was founded in 1834.

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Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)