Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.</li>
<li>Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.</li>
</ul>


Coal India reported flat EBITDA YoY in FY25, with lower e-auction realizations offset by cost control; record-high volumes but profitability impacted by NSR pressures.
FY26 guidance implies 7–8% offtake growth but appears largely aspirational given historical shortfalls; management remains cautious on realizations with weaker e-auction pricing and only modest FSA escalations.
Valuations appear cheap at ~6.7x FY25 EPS but are justified by margin risks from the FY27 wage hike and limited operating leverage on an already high volume base.


Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul><li>During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li><li>This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.</li><li>It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.</li></ul>

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks.This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of active funds outperformed.It is also interesting to note that for the year up to the end of Q3 2024, 22% of funds outperformed their benchmarks.

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

<ul><li>In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP &amp; TOPI) and Capped ALSI SWIX.</li><li>Relative to the March rebalance, we expect turnover in the closing auction to be much lower.</li><li>Turnover for the day was R59bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (harmonisation implemented).</li></ul>

In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP &amp; TOPI) and Capped ALSI SWIX.Relative to the March rebalance, we expect turnover in the closing auction to be much lower.Turnover for the day was R59bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (harmonisation implemented).

DMA | JSE June '24 Rebalance: Estimated Flows (Buys: Banks, Sells: NPN, PRX)

<ul><li>On Friday, JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction.</li><li>There will be no constituent changes to the Top 40, FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI indices (ALSI gets reviewed in March and September).</li><li>The upcoming rebalance will be the first review since the vanilla and SWIX indices were merged in March</li></ul>

On Friday, JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction.There will be no constituent changes to the Top 40, FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI indices (ALSI gets reviewed in March and September).The upcoming rebalance will be the first review since the vanilla and SWIX indices were merged in March

JSE June '24 Rebalance: Top Buys (Banks!) And Sells (NPN, PRX)

Index Rebalance

<ul><li>Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE June rebalance.</li><li>We do not anticipate any index changes for the Top 40, FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI.</li><li>There are several noteworthy free float changes across ALSI constituents, particularly amongst foreign counters (detail below).</li></ul>

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE June rebalance.We do not anticipate any index changes for the Top 40, FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI.There are several noteworthy free float changes across ALSI constituents, particularly amongst foreign counters (detail below).

JSE June ‘24 Rebalance Rankings: No Changes Expected + NPN X PRX Discount Update

Australia

Glencore plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups, metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural products. Glencore offers its products and services around the world.

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Glencore (GLN SJ)

Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Rahul Jain

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks. This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of...

DMA

DMA | JSE June '24 Rebalance: Estimated Flows (Buys: Banks, Sells: NPN, PRX)

In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP & TOPI) and...

DMA

JSE June '24 Rebalance: Top Buys (Banks!) And Sells (NPN, PRX)

On Friday, JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction. There will be no constituent changes to the Top 40, FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI...

DMA

JSE June ‘24 Rebalance Rankings: No Changes Expected + NPN X PRX Discount Update

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE June rebalance. We do not anticipate any index changes for the Top 40, FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI.

DMA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Coal India: Volume Strength Intact, Profitability Headwinds Emerging

​Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...

Rahul Jain

Funds in Focus Q4 2024 & 2024: A Better Quarter & Year for Active SA Equity Managers

During the last quarter of 2024, 55% of active SA equity funds outperformed their benchmarks. This is ahead of preceding quarter where 48% of...

DMA

DMA | JSE June '24 Rebalance: Estimated Flows (Buys: Banks, Sells: NPN, PRX)

In this note we show flow estimates based on passive AUM tracking and hedging the Capped Top 40 SWIX (DCAP), Top 40 SWIX (DTOP & TOPI) and...

DMA

JSE June '24 Rebalance: Top Buys (Banks!) And Sells (NPN, PRX)

On Friday, JSE indices will be rebalanced in the closing auction. There will be no constituent changes to the Top 40, FINI, FINDI, INDI or RESI...

DMA

JSE June ‘24 Rebalance Rankings: No Changes Expected + NPN X PRX Discount Update

Last night, the price snapshot was taken for the JSE June rebalance. We do not anticipate any index changes for the Top 40, FINDI, FINI, INDI or RESI.

DMA

Coal India's flat EBITDA in FY25 due to lower e-auction prices and NSR pressures, with FY26 guidance seen as aspirational and valuations justified...