Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.</li>
<li>Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, via an all-scrip Offer.</li>
<li>Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. </li>
</ul>


Back in August 2024, Jakob Stausholm, Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s previous CEO, said any stock issuance to fund Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s takeover would just add a layer of complexity.
Eight months later, Stausholm "stepped down", with Simon Trot taking over the reins. Now the mining giant has revived talks with Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), via an all-scrip Offer.
Given Rio's dual-headed structure, the deal mechanics for Glencore have not been publicly fleshed out. The drop in the Aussie line is indicative. 


Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,100+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we examine the exodus of capital from Indonesia, a web of corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the structural hurdles to a Glencore/Rio Tinto merger. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,100+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we examine the exodus of capital from Indonesia, a web of corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the structural hurdles to a Glencore/Rio Tinto merger. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Indonesia's Outflows, Delivery Deal-Flow, & Rio's Dual-Listed Dilemma

<ul>
<li>This price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> is WAY too light. Hold, don't sell. If it trades below or at terms, buy more. Quickly. Expect it will go higher.</li>
<li>Perhaps the simplest solution is to offer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore (GLEN LN)</a> shareholders the option of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Ltd (RIO AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio PLC (RIO LN)</a>, which would naturally compress the dual-class spread.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK)</a> is spinning-off and listing 83.1%-held Simcere Zaiming on the HKEx. Often, the sum of the parts is larger than the whole. This may not hold here.</li>
</ul>


This price for Toyota Industries (6201 JP) is WAY too light. Hold, don't sell. If it trades below or at terms, buy more. Quickly. Expect it will go higher.
Perhaps the simplest solution is to offer Glencore (GLEN LN) shareholders the option of Rio Ltd (RIO AU) or Rio PLC (RIO LN), which would naturally compress the dual-class spread.

Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) is spinning-off and listing 83.1%-held Simcere Zaiming on the HKEx. Often, the sum of the parts is larger than the whole. This may not hold here.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Rio/Glencore, Simcere Pharma, Mandom Corp, Qube, Jinke Smart

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>Rio Tinto and Glencore are in merger talks which if completed could create the largest global mining company by market cap, ahead of BHP </li>
<li>The combined entity would likely have significantly lower margins and ROE and a higher debt/equity than Rio, and more than double the number of divisions</li>
<li>We remain bearish on concerns over the prices of iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus), while valuations remain full and a Glencore bid could be a further overhang</li>
</ul>


Rio Tinto and Glencore are in merger talks which if completed could create the largest global mining company by market cap, ahead of BHP 
The combined entity would likely have significantly lower margins and ROE and a higher debt/equity than Rio, and more than double the number of divisions
We remain bearish on concerns over the prices of iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus), while valuations remain full and a Glencore bid could be a further overhang


Rio Tinto: Glencore Bid – From Simplified to Sprawling?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

ICICI Lombard General Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

ICICI Lombard General Insurance (ICICIGI IN)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and six sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently ten pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and six sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Jan 2025)

Switzerland

Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies. It produces, sources, markets, and recycles a wide range of raw materials including metals, minerals, and energy products essential for everyday life and the transition to a low-carbon economy. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

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Glencore (GLEN LN)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Glencore Musings

Ahead of the 5th Feb PUSU deadline, Rio's UK investors are (reportedly) pushing the Glencore merger to maintain its UK listing. Still, IF the DLC...

David Blennerhassett

Curator's Cut: Indonesia's Outflows, Delivery Deal-Flow, & Rio's Dual-Listed Dilemma

This Curator's Cut issue highlights the capital exodus from Indonesia, corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the DLC hurdles to Glencore...

Pranav Rao

Last Week In Event SPACE: Rio/Glencore, Simcere Pharma, Mandom Corp, Qube, Jinke Smart

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto: Glencore Bid – From Simplified to Sprawling?

Rio's Glencore merger talks suggest a shift from a simplified to a sprawling structure, and could be a further overhang to our bearish view based...

Graeme Cunningham

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Jan 2025)

Insight on statistical pair trading opportunities across ten pairs in three markets and six sectors, offering unique perspective on relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Glencore Musings

Ahead of the 5th Feb PUSU deadline, Rio's UK investors are (reportedly) pushing the Glencore merger to maintain its UK listing. Still, IF the DLC...

David Blennerhassett

Curator's Cut: Indonesia's Outflows, Delivery Deal-Flow, & Rio's Dual-Listed Dilemma

This ​Curator's Cut issue highlights the capital exodus from Indonesia, corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the DLC hurdles to Glencore...

Pranav Rao

Last Week In Event SPACE: Rio/Glencore, Simcere Pharma, Mandom Corp, Qube, Jinke Smart

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto: Glencore Bid – From Simplified to Sprawling?

Rio's Glencore merger talks suggest a shift from a simplified to a sprawling structure, and could be a further overhang to our bearish view based...

Graeme Cunningham

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (12 Jan 2025)

​Insight on statistical pair trading opportunities across ten pairs in three markets and six sectors, offering unique perspective on relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

This Curator's Cut issue highlights the capital exodus from Indonesia, corporate actions in the delivery sector, and the DLC hurdles to Glencore...

Insight on statistical pair trading opportunities across ten pairs in three markets and six sectors, offering unique perspective on relative value.