Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.</li>
<li>Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.</li>
<li>As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.</li>
</ul>


Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.
Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.
As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.


TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time</li>
<li>Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter </li>
<li>We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan companies are required to report revenue on a monthly basis. These updates can help us understand how a given quarter is progressing &amp; predict quarterly earnings ahead of time
Initially we focused on MoM %  increase/decrease. This is useful, but one needs to account for anomalies such as seasonality and potential non-linearity month to month within a given quarter 
We now also provide the monthly YoY revenue comparison. This eliminates anomalies due to both seasonality and intra-quarter non-linearity, enabling a clearer perspective on where the industry is at. 


Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

<ul>
<li>Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023</li>
<li>Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period</li>
<li>We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments</li>
</ul>


Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023
Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period
We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments


Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.</li>
<li>Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Market dynamics remain overwhelmingly risk-on; with plenty of global liquidity, we expect upside to continue into year-end and the early part of 2026.
Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, U.S., and Greece. Many buys in these countries, and also Europe and Japan. EURO STOXX 50 on the cusp of major breakout above 5500


Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>SUMCO reported Q225 revenues of ¥102.9 billion, flat sequentially and roughly 3% higher than guidance.</li>
<li>Operating profit of ¥1.5 billion was also slightly better than the forecasted breakeven, but dramatically down from its peak of ¥30.2 billion in Q322.</li>
<li>A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


SUMCO reported Q225 revenues of ¥102.9 billion, flat sequentially and roughly 3% higher than guidance.
Operating profit of ¥1.5 billion was also slightly better than the forecasted breakeven, but dramatically down from its peak of ¥30.2 billion in Q322.
A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!


SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

Taiwan

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

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Globalwafers (6488 TT)

TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Tracking monthly revenues of Taiwan semiconductor companies helps us identify key trends mid-quarter. Initially we tracked the MoM revenue changes....

William Keating

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Silicon wafers area shipments declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023 while revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion. Q124 revenues will be down ~20%...

William Keating

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!

William Keating

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TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

​TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Real Time Indicators Update

Tracking monthly revenues of Taiwan semiconductor companies helps us identify key trends mid-quarter. Initially we tracked the MoM revenue changes....

William Keating

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

Silicon wafers area shipments declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023 while revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion. Q124 revenues will be down ~20%...

William Keating

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact

Buys Focused in China, Taiwan, and Korea; Bullish Outlook Intact. Actionable Themes: Communications, Manufacturing (Robotics and Batteries),...

Vermilion Research

SUMCO Q225. Operating Profit Tanks As Depreciation Soars

A projected further increase in depreciation charges for the current quarter is forecasted to drive operating profit to negative ¥3.5 billion. Yikes!

William Keating

TSMC's COUPE at SEMICON advances silicon photonics for industrial-scale packaging, with Taiwan's ecosystem poised for adoption in AI networking...