Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, about 5% better than forecasted, up 5% QoQ but down ~10% YoY.</li>
<li>Q124 revenues forecasted to decline 17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. Not surprisingly, EBITDA will also decline 33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion.</li>
<li>On a brighter note, demand growth driven by generative AI will roughly double wafer demand for servers (AI+General) by 2027</li>
</ul>


Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, about 5% better than forecasted, up 5% QoQ but down ~10% YoY.
Q124 revenues forecasted to decline 17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. Not surprisingly, EBITDA will also decline 33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion.
On a brighter note, demand growth driven by generative AI will roughly double wafer demand for servers (AI+General) by 2027


SUMCO's Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result</li>
<li>AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend</li>
<li>Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year </li>
</ul>


TSMC Results Tomorrow, Interest Will Be Elevated After Taiwan's Election Result
AI PC Availability Tight in Taipei? We Visited Taipei's Guanghua Consumer Electronics Market Over the Weekend
Alchip Technologies GDR Offering - Has Been Riding on an Unwavering Momentum Over the Past Year 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalwafers-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17916:1" rel="noopener">Globalwafers (6488 TT)</a> outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  </li>
<li>We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.</li>
<li>The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  </li>
</ul>


The Globalwafers (6488 TT) outlook for 1Q24F is likely to show a slightly negative QoQ revenue trend. However, we anticipate a positive direction from 2Q24F onwards.  
We have a relatively high conviction for 2024F compared to 2023, indicating upside potential for the Memory and Logic sectors.
The supply of 12" raw wafers remains constrained among the top market players, and overcoming this constraint won't be easy.  


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): 1Q24F Outlook Could Be a Bit Downside, but 2Q24F Could Be Picking Upward.

<ul>
<li>Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining</li>
<li>SUMCO's Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 </li>
<li>The company vowed to make "substantial" production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. </li>
</ul>


Global silicon wafer area shipments declined 10% QoQ in Q323 but customer inventory remains at historical highs and is showing no signs of declining
SUMCO's Operating Profit forecasted to fall by ¥8.6 billion QoQ in Q423 
The company vowed to make "substantial" production cuts in a bid to bring their inventory situation under control. 


Silicon Wafers. SUMCO Sounds The Alarm As Inventory Continues To Climb

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.</li>
<li>The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.</li>
<li>The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.</li>
</ul>



JSR Corp (4185 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from JIC is JPY4,350 per share. Since the deal announcement on 26 June, the gross spread has averaged 6.4%.
The wide gross spread reflects the risk in satisfying the pre-conditions related to country approvals, particularly in China. JIC, unusually can waive all or part of the conditions precedent.
The wild card is geopolitical developments. There are three China approval scenarios. The likely scenario is the deal approval under a normal procedure with a delay to the tender start.


JSR Corporation (4185 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Taiwan

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Globalwafers (6488 TT)

SUMCO's Sobering Outlook For Silicon Wafers

Q423 revenues of ¥105.1 billion, +5% QoQ but -10% YoY. Q124 revenues -17% QoQ to ¥87 billion. EBITDA -33% QoQ to ¥22.1 billion. AI demand will...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results; AI PC Market Site Visit; Alchip GDR Offering

TSMC's results tomorrow will attract increased attention following Taiwan's election. AI PCs appear in high demand in Taipei. Alchip Technologies'...

Vincent Fernando, CFA