Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)

<ul>
<li>Change in earnings estimate directions, especially when estimates start increasing after a long period of decline, are what we call "inflections". These, we believe, are the strongest share price catalysts. </li>
<li>We identify nine market-sectors across Asia ex Japan exhibiting upward earnings inflections. Four are from financials, two from telecoms and one each from utilities, consumer durables and industrials.</li>
<li>These market-sectors are from HK/China (3), Korea (1), ASEAN (5). Financials' domination indicates that a broader Asian macroeconomic recovery could be under way. Eight companies are primarily driving the upgrades.</li>
</ul>


Change in earnings estimate directions, especially when estimates start increasing after a long period of decline, are what we call "inflections". These, we believe, are the strongest share price catalysts. 
We identify nine market-sectors across Asia ex Japan exhibiting upward earnings inflections. Four are from financials, two from telecoms and one each from utilities, consumer durables and industrials.
These market-sectors are from HK/China (3), Korea (1), ASEAN (5). Financials' domination indicates that a broader Asian macroeconomic recovery could be under way. Eight companies are primarily driving the upgrades.


Asian Equities: Keep an Eye on These Earnings Inflections

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>'s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.</li>
<li>The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK's irrevocable suggest the offer is light.   </li>
<li>An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray. </li>
</ul>



HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)'s preconditional voluntary conditional offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.23. Including the HK$0.165 dividend, the total offer is HK$5.395, an 11.0% premium to last close.
The offer seems rushed and a reaction to a potential competing offer from I Squared. The lack of privatisation through a scheme and MBK's irrevocable suggest the offer is light.   
An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and the irrevocable competing offer clause invite I Squared to enter the fray. 


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/telcos-media-tech/china-mobile-said-explore-deal-internet-provider-hkbn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> is exploring a buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00, a 16.0% premium to last close.  </li>
<li>HKBN has been the subject of numerous bid rumours, which seemingly came to nothing due to the challenge of meeting the largest shareholders' (TPG and MBK) price expectations. </li>
<li>The rumoured offer price will struggle to gain TPG/MBK’s backing. The current valuation is unappealing, as HKBN trades at a premium multiple compared to peers at the last close. </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that China Mobile (941 HK) is exploring a buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00, a 16.0% premium to last close.  
HKBN has been the subject of numerous bid rumours, which seemingly came to nothing due to the challenge of meeting the largest shareholders' (TPG and MBK) price expectations. 
The rumoured offer price will struggle to gain TPG/MBK’s backing. The current valuation is unappealing, as HKBN trades at a premium multiple compared to peers at the last close. 


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Resurfaces as a Rumoured Suitor

<ul>
<li>On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.</li>
<li>The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>) were approached.</li>
<li>The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. </li>
</ul>


On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. 


HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/china-mobile-explores-acquiring-hong-kong-telecom-firm-hkbn-sources-2023-04-18/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> is exploring a potential buyout of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>. The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. </li>
<li>To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.</li>
<li>PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.</li>
</ul>



Reuters reported that China Mobile (600941 CH) is exploring a potential buyout of HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). The shares surged 12.3% to HK$6.57, above I Squared’s rumoured HK$6.00 offer. 
To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme offer of around HK$8.50 would likely be required.
PAG is also a rumoured bidder. The flurry of interest around HKBN suggests a good probability that one of the bidders will come through with a formal offer.


HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

Philippines

Globe Telecom is a major Philippine telecommunications company that provides mobile and fixed-line broadband telecommunications services. It offers digital wireless communications services under brands like Globe Postpaid, Prepaid, GOMO, and Touch Mobile, along with home connectivity via Globe At Home and GFiber. Beyond traditional connectivity, Globe also operates in digital solutions and financial technology through its GCash service and GlobeOne digital superapp. The company is headquartered in Bonifacio Global City, Taguig, Philippines, and was founded on January 15, 1935.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Globe Telecom (GLO PM)

Asian Equities: Keep an Eye on These Earnings Inflections

Earnings inflections, ie EPS est rising after long period of decline, are selectively underway in Asia. We identify 9 market-sectors - 3 from HK...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and an irrevocable competing offer clause are invitations for competing offers. The...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Resurfaces as a Rumoured Suitor

Bloomberg reports that China Mobile is exploring a buyout of HKBN and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00. The rumoured offer price will struggle to...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

The probability of a takeover offer is low, which explains TPG/MBK's exploration of other options. An attractive dividend yield continues to...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Keep an Eye on These Earnings Inflections

​Earnings inflections, ie EPS est rising after long period of decline, are selectively underway in Asia. We identify 9 market-sectors - 3 from HK...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Half-Baked Preconditional VGO

An unattractive offer, a lengthy precondition long-stop date and an irrevocable competing offer clause are invitations for competing offers. The...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Resurfaces as a Rumoured Suitor

Bloomberg reports that China Mobile is exploring a buyout of HKBN and is willing to pay at least HK$5.00. The rumoured offer price will struggle to...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

The probability of a takeover offer is low, which explains TPG/MBK's exploration of other options. An attractive dividend yield continues to...

Arun George

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile Is the Latest to Show Interest

To get an idea of the appropriate offer price, we examine shareholding dealings from substantial shareholders. Our analysis suggests that a scheme...

Arun George

Earnings inflections, ie EPS est rising after long period of decline, are selectively underway in Asia. We identify 9 market-sectors - 3 from HK...