Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> if you're very bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

Travis Lundy

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 1-Jan-2025, the new <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> (formerly GMO Ad Partners) was reborn. It was basically a RTO (of parent GMO's data centre business) with a new Prime Listing.</li>
<li>Float was tiny. Maybe 2%. Then there was a TOPIX inclusion. The stock was squeezed from ¥1,200 to ¥3,100 (was ¥350 when the plan was announced in mid-2024). </li>
<li>An offering was announced last year at ¥3,100. Nobody wanted it. The stock fell 80%, rebounded a bit. Now we have a new offering. But it's still rich. </li>
</ul>


On 1-Jan-2025, the new GMO Internet (4784 JP) (formerly GMO Ad Partners) was reborn. It was basically a RTO (of parent GMO's data centre business) with a new Prime Listing.
Float was tiny. Maybe 2%. Then there was a TOPIX inclusion. The stock was squeezed from ¥1,200 to ¥3,100 (was ¥350 when the plan was announced in mid-2024). 
An offering was announced last year at ¥3,100. Nobody wanted it. The stock fell 80%, rebounded a bit. Now we have a new offering. But it's still rich. 


[Japan Offering] GMO Internet (4784) - A New Offering at a LOT Lower Price

<ul>
<li>Intervention seeds participation as a PRC investor (COSCO?) is expected to join the bidding consortium for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> ports.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> needs to sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a>to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> has been selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, then buying back its shares. (As has Tencent). Reportedly Prosus is now selling shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Intervention seeds participation as a PRC investor (COSCO?) is expected to join the bidding consortium for CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) ports.

GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP)to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. 

Prosus NV (PRX NA) has been selling Tencent (700 HK), then buying back its shares. (As has Tencent). Reportedly Prosus is now selling shares in Meituan (3690 HK).


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> needs to sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haw-par-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9898:1" rel="noopener">Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP) to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. 
Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)/ UOB (UOB SP) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Stay Short On GMO Internet (4784 JP); Haw Par Now Even More Stretched

<ul>
<li>I have harped on the fact that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> has to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> shares with the goal to get 35% tradable shares by end-2025.</li>
<li>I have written about it <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gmo-internet-4784-dropdown-holdco-gone-ballistic-squeezed-on-truly-tiny-float" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gmo-internet-4784-offering-this-is-a-ginormous-re-ipo-avoid-like-the-plague" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gmo-internet-4784-squeeze-able-so-squeezing-offering-likely-gets-pulled-avoid-like-the-plague" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gmo-internet-4784-shares-appear-manipulated-squeezed-again-but-parentco-must-sell" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. The price needs to be lower so the parent can launch a HUGE block. The stock must be less squeeze-able.</li>
<li>It turns out the parent started selling in the market the day after the Offering was cancelled. The setup is delicious now.</li>
</ul>


I have harped on the fact that GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) has to sell GMO Internet (4784 JP) shares with the goal to get 35% tradable shares by end-2025.
I have written about it here, here, here, and here. The price needs to be lower so the parent can launch a HUGE block. The stock must be less squeeze-able.
It turns out the parent started selling in the market the day after the Offering was cancelled. The setup is delicious now.


GMO Internet (4784) - GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market

Japan

GMO Internet Group, Inc. provides internet related services to its corporate customers. The company offers domain, server, security and settlement services through its "WEB Infrastructure & EC" business, and assists companies in attracting web users through its "Internet Media" business. GMO Internet Group conducts businesses in Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Offering] GMO Internet (4784) - A New Offering at a LOT Lower Price

1yr ago, parentco tried a huge offering at a huge price but no takers. Shares dropped 70+%. Earnings were as predicted. Now they try again. Still a...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutch, GMO Internet, Prosus/Meituan, Piedmont Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Stay Short On GMO Internet (4784 JP); Haw Par Now Even More Stretched

GMO Internet (9449 JP) needs to sell GMO Internet (4784), and it is doing so. If you can take down borrow on 4784, stay short. It could get bumpy....

David Blennerhassett

GMO Internet (4784) - GMO Internet Parent Has Been SELLING In The Market

GMO backdoor-listed their ISP/portal biz into GMO Ad Partners (now GMO Internet). Then got a TOPIX listing with 1.2% float. So SQUEEZE. In 9 weeks,...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)