'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/085/original/2020-07-21_06-31-46.png?1595280841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147085"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/086/original/2020-07-21_06-31-04.png?1595281006" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147086"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/147/087/original/2020-07-21_06-44-10.png?1595281527" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="147087"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>Genky DrugStores (9267 JP)</strong> - Genky, listed in December 2017 and the eleventh largest listed drugstore chain in Japan, <span>was nearly Oversold in the first quarter.</span><span> As a result, the shares have been the best performing in the fifteen-string Peer Group over the last three months. The company's upward revisions to sales and operating profits of 9% and 21%, respectively match peer-trends. The recent share price rally has brought Genky back into line. The company is, however, one of only three chains that fail to earn a positive residual return on Net Operating Assets, Genky also has the highest debt/equity ratio of any listed chain. The company does not deserve any peer-premium, and we would sell into any revision-induced strength.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>2 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 0 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -7.0</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -12..% Quarter YoY / +0.8% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> +0.1ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>4 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 1 Positive / 1 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.8</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Genky DrugStores (9267 JP) - Genky, listed in December 2017 and the eleventh largest listed drugstore chain in Japan, was nearly Oversold in the first quarter. As a result, the shares have been the best performing in the fifteen-string Peer Group over the last three months. The company's upward revisions to sales and operating profits of 9% and 21%, respectively match peer-trends. The recent share price rally has brought Genky back into line. The company is, however, one of only three chains that fail to earn a positive residual return on Net Operating Assets, Genky also has the highest debt/equity ratio of any listed chain. The company does not deserve any peer-premium, and we would sell into any revision-induced strength.
DAILY STATS
2 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 0 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -7.0

Average % Change in Revenue: -12..% Quarter YoY / +0.8% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +0.1ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%
 4 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 1 Positive / 1 Neutral / 2 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 20th July - Genki Genky, Alinco, Komatsu Wall, GMO-AD Partners

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-steel-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16195:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)</a></strong>'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.</li>
<li>I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a></strong> doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.</li>
<li>IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a></strong> and 64.7%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a></strong> are both uninvestable.</li>
</ul>



Tokyo Steel (5423 JP)'s cost are up, but Japan's still a net scrap exporter, with enough scrap to keep Japan scrap prices low enough to keep electric arc furnaces competitive.
I can't see FIRB stomping on the Kestrel  deal. Perhaps behavioural remedies, where possible, such that Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) doesn't divert the majority of the exports to China.
IDX has considerable work to do to address transparency, investability, and credibility. Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ) and 64.7%-held Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) are both uninvestable.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a></strong> if you're very bullish <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a></strong>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a></strong> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

<ul>
<li>Avoid <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a></strong>'s offering. Shares <em>could</em> still get squeezed by retail/growth-profile investors; and likely index/TOPIX demand later this year.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the <strong>GMO complex</strong> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Avoid GMO Internet (4784 JP)'s offering. Shares could still get squeezed by retail/growth-profile investors; and likely index/TOPIX demand later this year.
Preceding my comments on the GMO complex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Remains An Avoid. Get Involved With GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Samsung Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front,  a few companies in Hong Kong managed to use the ceasefire window to launch their bookbuilds.</li>
<li>On the placement front, as well there a few large deals along with some upcoming lockups.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front,  a few companies in Hong Kong managed to use the ceasefire window to launch their bookbuilds.
On the placement front, as well there a few large deals along with some upcoming lockups.


Aequitas ECM Weekly (13 April 2026)-Samsung, Victory Giant, Huaqin, Sigenergy, Manycore, Merdeka

Japan

GMO Internet, Inc. offers marketing services. The Company offers internet advertising, mobile advertising, search engine marketing, and other services to medium sized advertising agencies. GMO Internet conducts businesses throughout Japan.

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GMO Internet (4784 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 20th July - Genki Genky, Alinco, Komatsu Wall, GMO-AD Partners

Genky DrugStores (9267 JP) - Genky, listed in December 2017 and the eleventh largest listed drugstore chain in Japan, was nearly Oversold in the...

Campbell Gunn

Last Week In Event SPACE: Tokyo Steel, Yancoal, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Barito Pacific/Renewables

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Remains An Avoid. Get Involved With GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)

Stay away from the offering. GMO Internet (4784 JP) is probably a buy ~¥600/share (say, ~20% downside). Possible index/TOPIX demand later this...

David Blennerhassett

Aequitas ECM Weekly (13 April 2026)-Samsung, Victory Giant, Huaqin, Sigenergy, Manycore, Merdeka

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

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