India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.</li>
<li>We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.</li>
<li>At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.</li>
</ul>


ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.
We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.
At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.


ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>India notified a new and increased excise duty on cigarettes, effective Feb 1, 2026, alongside a 40% GST regime.</li>
<li>On January 1, 2026, tobacco stocks sold off sharply. ITC fell about 9%, Godfrey Phillips India around 15–17%, and VST Industries about 4%.</li>
<li>Total tax per cigarette rises more than expected, raising risks to volumes and accelerating illicit trade.</li>
</ul>


India notified a new and increased excise duty on cigarettes, effective Feb 1, 2026, alongside a 40% GST regime.
On January 1, 2026, tobacco stocks sold off sharply. ITC fell about 9%, Godfrey Phillips India around 15–17%, and VST Industries about 4%.
Total tax per cigarette rises more than expected, raising risks to volumes and accelerating illicit trade.


ITC: Tobacco Volumes to Be Impacted by Increased Taxes; Uncertainty Ahead

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meesho-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35872:1" rel="noopener">Meesho (1546271D IN) </a>is looking to raise around US$607m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance earlier. In this note, we talk about the implied valuations in the price range.</li>
</ul>



Meesho (1546271D IN) is looking to raise around US$607m in its upcoming India IPO.
Meesho is an e-commerce marketplace, offering a wide assortment of products ranging from low cost unbranded products, regional and national brands at affordable prices to consumers.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance earlier. In this note, we talk about the implied valuations in the price range.


Meesho Ltd IPO - Value-Led Play, Moderately Priced

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 changes a side for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance. There are many stocks with flows from passive trackers of other indices.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 18.23bn (US$209m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The adds to the index have outperformed the deletes over the last 5 months and there has been noticeable outperformance in the last couple of weeks.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 11 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 17.6bn (US$201m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
The outright forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 4 months and there has been a jump in the last week.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

India

Godfrey Phillips India is a prominent fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company specializing in the manufacturing and distribution of cigarettes, tobacco products, and confectionery. The company also manufactures and distributes Marlboro cigarettes in India under a license agreement with Philip Morris International. It is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was founded in 1936.

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Godfrey Phillips India (GP IN)

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

ITC: Tobacco Volumes to Be Impacted by Increased Taxes; Uncertainty Ahead

India raises excise duty on cigarettes, causing tobacco stocks to plummet and raising concerns about increased illicit trade due to higher taxes.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Meesho Ltd IPO - Value-Led Play, Moderately Priced

Meesho Ltd (ML) is looking to raise around US$607m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s implied valuations in the...

Akshat Shah

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 13 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is INR 18.2bn. There are many stocks with...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

​ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

ITC: Tobacco Volumes to Be Impacted by Increased Taxes; Uncertainty Ahead

​India raises excise duty on cigarettes, causing tobacco stocks to plummet and raising concerns about increased illicit trade due to higher taxes.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Meesho Ltd IPO - Value-Led Play, Moderately Priced

Meesho Ltd (ML) is looking to raise around US$607m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s implied valuations in the...

Akshat Shah

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance: 13 Changes a Side; Lots of Overlap with Other Index Flow

There are 13 changes for the index in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.8% and the round-trip trade is INR 18.2bn. There are many stocks with...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 11 Potential Changes in September

There could be 11 changes in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.7% and round-trip trade is INR 17.6bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

India raises excise duty on cigarettes, causing tobacco stocks to plummet and raising concerns about increased illicit trade due to higher taxes.