Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment </li>
<li>There is a sense of aggression in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> is well placed to grow volumes &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is expected to be a steady performer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)'</a> s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>'s products are more prone to volatility. </li>
</ul>


Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment 
There is a sense of aggression in ITC Ltd (ITC IN), Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) is well placed to grow volumes &amp; Nestle India (NEST IN) is expected to be a steady performer. 

Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)' s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)'s products are more prone to volatility. 


India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

The unsatisfactory 1H 2020 operating numbers that stemmed from lower revenue growth and higher excise taxes reduce operating cash flow, prompting the company to increase the amount of debt in the balance sheet that will further reduce the net income margin by 1.7 to 4% if the next six months' operating numbers will not improve. With the shift in the consumers' taste that reduces Dji-Sam-Soe's (HMSP's flagship product) sales, HMSP is not in the best position to outperform the potential weak consumption trend in the second half of 2020. If HMSP were to cut or forego dividends next year, it will accelerate the switch from HMSP to GGRM. 
HMSP's operating numbers are also very volatile compared to the steady GGRM's, yet the former seems to trade at a higher valuation in the Indonesian equity market compared to the latter albeit losing market share. Maintain underweight HMSP and overweight GGRM.

The unsatisfactory 1H 2020 operating numbers that stemmed from lower revenue growth and higher excise taxes reduce operating cash flow, prompting the company to increase the amount of debt in the balance sheet that will further reduce the net income margin by 1.7 to 4% if the next six months' operating numbers will not improve. With the shift in the consumers' taste that reduces Dji-Sam-Soe's (HMSP's flagship product) sales, HMSP is not in the best position to outperform the potential weak consumption trend in the second half of 2020. If HMSP were to cut or forego dividends next year, it will accelerate the switch from HMSP to GGRM. 
HMSP's operating numbers are also very volatile compared to the steady GGRM's, yet the former seems to trade at a higher valuation in the Indonesian equity market compared to the latter albeit losing market share. Maintain underweight HMSP and overweight GGRM. 

Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax

India

Godfrey Phillips India Limited manufactures and distributes cigarettes, smoking tobacco and cigars.  The Group's brands include Black & White Kingsize Filter, Four Square Kingsize Filter, Cavanders Navy Cut Regular, Red & White, Anand and Leader.  The Company also manufactures Virgin Gold and Philip's Gold cigarette tobacco.

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Godfrey Phillips India (GP IN)

India Channel Insight #35 | ITC, Britannia, Nestle India, Dabur, Marico

This channel insight shares key takeaways from speaking to channels across north India that are associated with ITC, Britannia, Nestle India,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Sampoerna (HMSP): Losing From Higher Excise Tax

The unsatisfactory 1H 2020 operating numbers that stemmed from lower revenue growth and higher excise taxes reduce operating cash flow, prompting...

Henry Soediarko

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