Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Uranium Price has fallen 12% since early February</li>
<li>
Maintain SELL on YCA, 1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>Maintain BUY recommendation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a></li>
<li>Feasibility Study due Q319, not yet contain newly discovered mineralisation</li>
<li>Drilling moving to the nearby Kunche deposit, targeting similar depth extensions</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/41" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> approve Iron Bridge Magnetite Project </li>
<li>Est. proposed nameplate only allows~70Mtpa of fines to achieve blend &gt;60% Fe
</li>
<li>Will the increased magnetite production cost, be worth the decrease in discount?</li>
<li>Est. 2019 global seaborne iron ore production 50Mt less than 2018, stronger for longer</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/41" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10577" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1">Focus Minerals (FML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15733" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15733:1">White Cliff Minerals (WCN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11085" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11085:1">Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12256" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12256:1">Cardinal Resources (CDV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5035" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5035:1">Blackham Resources (BLK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19133" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19133:1">Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12256" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12256:1">Cardinal Resources (CDV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7038" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7038:1">Alliance Resources (AGS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23533" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23533:1">Griffin Mining (GFM LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17495" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17495" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2971" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2971:1">Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14597" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14597:1">Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1923" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1923:1">Jameson Resources (JAL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9553" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9553:1">Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15059" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15059:1">Talga Resources (TLG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15638" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15638:1">Nexus Minerals (NXM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1365" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1365:1">Chesser Resources (CHZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2237" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2237:1">Spectrum Rare Earths (SPX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6192" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12054" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12054:1">Strandline Resources (STA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15927" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15927:1">Canyon Resources (CAY AU)</a>, Thor Mining, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23072" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23072:1">Manila Mining (MA PM)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Uranium Price has fallen 12% since early February

Maintain SELL on YCA, 1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8

Maintain BUY recommendation Azumah Resources (AZM AU)
Feasibility Study due Q319, not yet contain newly discovered mineralisation
Drilling moving to the nearby Kunche deposit, targeting similar depth extensions
Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) approve Iron Bridge Magnetite Project 
Est. proposed nameplate only allows~70Mtpa of fines to achieve blend &gt;60% Fe

Will the increased magnetite production cost, be worth the decrease in discount?
Est. 2019 global seaborne iron ore production 50Mt less than 2018, stronger for longer

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), White Cliff Minerals (WCN AU), Pacifico Minerals (PMY AU), Cardinal Resources (CDV AU), Blackham Resources (BLK AU), Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU), Cardinal Resources (CDV AU), Alliance Resources (AGS AU), Griffin Mining (GFM LN), Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU), Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU), Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Lake Resources Nl (LKE AU), Jameson Resources (JAL AU), Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), Talga Resources (TLG AU), Nexus Minerals (NXM AU), Chesser Resources (CHZ AU), Spectrum Rare Earths (SPX AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), Strandline Resources (STA AU), Canyon Resources (CAY AU), Thor Mining, Manila Mining (MA PM)



New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 04/05/19)

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<ul class="">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> continued strong BUY</li>
<li>Mineral Resource increased 2% to 6.61Moz</li>
<li>2019 attributable production guided at 50–60koz Au</li>
<li>AISC est. between A$1,050 to $1,150/oz, is realistic</li>
<li> Using $1,300/oz attributable 2019 EBIT will be between US$7.5-15m
</li>
<li>2020 attributable EBIT of 150k/oz conservative $A54m</li>
<li>
Price/EBIT ratio now 10.9 to 16.8 (previous est. 8 to 9.1)</li>
<li>Expand AIM &amp; ASX coverage to 397 companies from next week</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11276" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11276:1">Millennium Minerals (MOY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9713" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9713:1">Metals X Ltd (MLX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6192" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1960" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1960:1">Resolute Mining (RSG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8946" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8946">Andromeda Metals (ADN AU)</a>  
</li>
</ul>


Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) continued strong BUY
Mineral Resource increased 2% to 6.61Moz
2019 attributable production guided at 50–60koz Au
AISC est. between A$1,050 to $1,150/oz, is realistic
 Using $1,300/oz attributable 2019 EBIT will be between US$7.5-15m

2020 attributable EBIT of 150k/oz conservative $A54m

Price/EBIT ratio now 10.9 to 16.8 (previous est. 8 to 9.1)
Expand AIM &amp; ASX coverage to 397 companies from next week

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Metals X Ltd (MLX AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU) , Resolute Mining (RSG AU), Andromeda Metals (ADN AU)  



New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 15/02/19)

<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> Recommend BUY
</li>
<li>Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget</li>
<li>150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219</li>
<li>
Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419</li>
<li>
Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt</li>
<li>Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) </li>
<li>A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity</li>
<li>Corporate takeover target likely by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10152" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10152:1">Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11276" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11276:1">Millennium Minerals (MOY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12743" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12743:1">Southern Gold (SAU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10577" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1">Focus Minerals (FML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14492:1">Oklo Resources (OKU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7940" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14062:1">Troy Resources (TRY AU)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) Recommend BUY

Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget
150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219

Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419

Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt
Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) 
A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity
Corporate takeover target likely by Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)

Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Southern Gold (SAU AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), Oklo Resources (OKU AU), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Troy Resources (TRY AU)



New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 01/02/19)

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine companies we cover. Our sector fair value factors 4.5% annual revenue growth for the five years to fiscal 2021, including no growth in fiscal 2017. EBITDA growth is a bit higher at 6.4%, due to aggressive cost-outs and industry deflation. Mining and energy remain the foundations, supporting an estimated two thirds of sector earnings. However, we don’t expect investment activity here to bottom until fiscal 2018, and even then, expect only a modest turnaround—well below what the market is pricing in. Instead, we view growth stemming from increased maintenance activity, rising public infrastructure spending unrelated to mining and energy (particularly in Australian road and rail programs in line with government budgets), and other specialised nonmining activities like ALS Limited’s life sciences focus. More than half our forecast earnings boost is totally unrelated to resources; we believe the market overestimates the likely improvement in commodity investment.We derive a sector price/fair value of 1.34, with all companies trading at some premium. Least overvalued is are global explosives provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:895:1">Orica Ltd (ORI AU)</a> at 1.1, and authorised Caterpillar dealer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1">Seven Group Holdings Ltd (SVW AU)</a> at 1.2. Most overvalued are materials tester <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14351" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14351:1">Als Ltd (ALQ AU)</a> at 1.7, and oil and gas engineering services provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/178" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:178:1">Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR AU)</a>  at 1.6.Analyst: Mark Taylor

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine companies we cover. Our sector fair value factors 4.5% annual revenue growth for the five years to fiscal 2021, including no growth in fiscal 2017. EBITDA growth is a bit higher at 6.4%, due to aggressive cost-outs and industry deflation. Mining and energy remain the foundations, supporting an estimated two thirds of sector earnings. However, we don’t expect investment activity here to bottom until fiscal 2018, and even then, expect only a modest turnaround—well below what the market is pricing in. Instead, we view growth stemming from increased maintenance activity, rising public infrastructure spending unrelated to mining and energy (particularly in Australian road and rail programs in line with government budgets), and other specialised nonmining activities like ALS Limited’s life sciences focus. More than half our forecast earnings boost is totally unrelated to resources; we believe the market overestimates the likely improvement in commodity investment.We derive a sector price/fair value of 1.34, with all companies trading at some premium. Least overvalued is are global explosives provider Orica Ltd (ORI AU) at 1.1, and authorised Caterpillar dealer Seven Group Holdings Ltd (SVW AU) at 1.2. Most overvalued are materials tester Als Ltd (ALQ AU) at 1.7, and oil and gas engineering services provider Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR AU)  at 1.6.Analyst: Mark Taylor

Shares Overcook Potential for a Mining Services Turnaround

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

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Macroeconomics

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Australia

Gold Road Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration and production company. The Company focuses on its Yamarna Gold Project located east of Laverton, Western Australia.

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Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 04/05/19)

Uranium Price has fallen 12% since early February Maintain SELL on YCA, 1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8 Maintain...

Gaius King

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 15/02/19)

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) continued strong BUY Mineral Resource increased 2% to 6.61Moz 2019 attributable production guided at 50–60koz Au AISC...

Boost Research

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 01/02/19)

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) Recommend BUY Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget 150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR,...

Boost Research

Shares Overcook Potential for a Mining Services Turnaround

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine...

Morningstar, Inc.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments. These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last...

Greg Gibbs

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