Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After rejecting an approach on the 24th March, on the 5th May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>entered into a Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a> after terms were bumped.</li>
<li>GFI offered $2.52/share, cash, plus a variable cash component of ~A$0.88 (now worth ~A$0.77/share) via GOR's indirect stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>. This includes any fully franked dividend.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250815/pdf/06mxpjvcw9991s.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a shareholder vote on the 22nd September. The IE (Deloitte) says fair &amp; reasonable. It is. </li>
</ul>


After rejecting an approach on the 24th March, on the 5th May, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)entered into a Scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ) after terms were bumped.
GFI offered $2.52/share, cash, plus a variable cash component of ~A$0.88 (now worth ~A$0.77/share) via GOR's indirect stake in Northern Star Resources (NST AU). This includes any fully franked dividend.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 22nd September. The IE (Deloitte) says fair &amp; reasonable. It is. 


Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields' Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a> as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK)</a> is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.</li>
</ul>



Sun Corp (6736 JP) is a clear value play. But it's not as cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US) as it was  last month. The trade is a net long position
As Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) plumbs new 12-month lows for its NAV discount and implied stub, Swire's B shares have significantly outperformed the As over the past month.

Shandong Hi-Speed (412 HK) is a bubble. High shareholder concentration is still likely present, and the stock is getting squeezed. SHP is a short. Once it starts to turn.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

<ul>
<li>I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-kangji-medical-instrument-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28938:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashimori-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13918:1" rel="noopener">Ashimori Industry (3526 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rezil-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45661:1" rel="noopener">Rezil (176A JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carenet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4001:1" rel="noopener">Carenet Inc (2150 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kolon-mobility-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45648:1" rel="noopener">Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 41 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), Rezil (176A JP), and Carenet Inc (2150 JP).
Key updates/news took place on HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and Kolon Mobility Group (450140 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Ashimori, Carenet, Rezil, HKBN, Toyo Cons., Shibaura Elect.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.</li>
<li>The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  </li>
<li>The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. </li>
</ul>


The Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) IE considers Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is A$2.52 cash + value per share of GOR's NST stake.
The key condition is GOR shareholder approval. The scheme vote should pass partly due to the benign shareholder structure.  
The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%. 


Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
We forecast 8 adds and 25 deletes for the ETF. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$6.18bn.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes since the announcement of the benchmark switch and over shorter time frames too. The valuation gap has opened up.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

Australia

Gold Road Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration and production company. The Company focuses on its Yamarna Gold Project located east of Laverton, Western Australia.

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Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)

Gold Road (GOR AU): 22th September Vote On Gold Fields' Offer

Clean deal. Trading super tight at ~1.1%/7.1% gross/annualised spread, based on NST's last traded price. More bang for your buck for those who can...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Swire, Shandong Hi-Speed, PRC Rural Bank Delistings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Kangji Medical, Ashimori, Carenet, Rezil, HKBN, Toyo Cons., Shibaura Elect.

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI US)’s Scheme Vote on 22 September

The vote is low-risk. The offer is attractive. At the last close and for a 13 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/8.1%.

Arun George

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Big Outperformance Driven by Benchmark Change; Valuation Gap Opens Up

We see 8 adds and 25 deletes for GDX. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.77% and round-trip trade is US$6.18bn. Forecast adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

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