Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Morning from a sunny Copenhagen! Many pundits have (rightfully) struggled to find a coherent logic behind the Trump administration’s trade policy.</li><li>However, quietly—but increasingly noticeably—the administration is beginning to make progress on a few of the core objectives outlined in the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” This accord seeks to leverage the U.S. defense umbrella to compel major trade partners to accept:a weaker USD, and increased purchases of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) in exchange for continued security guarantees—  with tariffs serving as the primary tool in this negotiation strategy.</li><li>While this approach has clearly sparked outrage globally—and while one can certainly question the strategic coherence and execution—the first signs are emerging that suggest it might be achieving some of its intended effects.</li></ul>

Morning from a sunny Copenhagen! Many pundits have (rightfully) struggled to find a coherent logic behind the Trump administration’s trade policy.However, quietly—but increasingly noticeably—the administration is beginning to make progress on a few of the core objectives outlined in the so-called “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” This accord seeks to leverage the U.S. defense umbrella to compel major trade partners to accept:a weaker USD, and increased purchases of U.S. Treasuries (USTs) in exchange for continued security guarantees—  with tariffs serving as the primary tool in this negotiation strategy.While this approach has clearly sparked outrage globally—and while one can certainly question the strategic coherence and execution—the first signs are emerging that suggest it might be achieving some of its intended effects.

Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites back</li><li>China-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor says</li><li>Canton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair</li></ul>

Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites backChina-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor saysCanton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.</li>
<li>Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a> could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.</li>
</ul>



Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.</li>
<li>When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.</span></li>
</ul>


The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken over the presidency—at least when it comes to pushing through the most critical U-turns in Trump’s policy decisions.
When we loop back over the major U-turns of the past couple of months, the most influential reversals all appear to have been driven by Bessent (and, to an extent, Lutnick)
What exactly is going on inside the Trump camp? It’s painfully obvious that they are not aligned on the public message, and to add fuel to the fire, Trump is now back attacking Zelensky once again.


The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a>'s stock price has moved higher over the last year as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold</a> has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.</li>
<li>Positioning has jumped in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a> and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>



Evolution Mining's stock price has moved higher over the last year as Gold has gone on a big run. The increased market cap should result in a global index inclusion.

Evolution Mining (EVN AU) has performed in line with its peers over the last year and trades in line with the group on most valuation parameters.
Positioning has jumped in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) and its peers over the last couple of months. The index inclusion could result in outperformance over the next few weeks.


Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Steno Signals #195 – Wait, what? Did China just start buying Treasuries again?

Morning from a sunny Copenhagen! Many pundits have (rightfully) struggled to find a coherent logic behind the Trump administration’s trade...

Steno Research

CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back

Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites back China-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor says Canton Fair /In...

Caixin Global

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

Full circulation should result in Laopu Gold missing out on index inclusion in May. Inclusion in August will require some selling from pre-IPO...

Brian Freitas

The Drill: Watch oil as OPEC is imploding..

Evening from Copenhagen. The everlasting circus of US politics continues, and at this point, it almost seems like Bessent has effectively taken...

Steno Research

Evolution Mining (EVN AU): Global Index Inclusion in May as Gold Rallies

The rally in gold has led to a huge mkt cap increase for EVN - that should lead to a global index inclusion. Valuations are in line with peers and...

Brian Freitas

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