Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.</li>
<li>Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.</li>
<li>Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.</li>
</ul>


ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.
Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.
Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.


El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>Analysts keep ‘buy’ rating on UMS Integration after 3QFY2025 update.</li><li>CSE Global's target price raised to $1.20+ after key partnership with Amazon.</li><li>Venture Corp reports 3QFY2025 net profit of $55.6M, down 8.3% y-o-y.</li></ul>

Analysts keep ‘buy’ rating on UMS Integration after 3QFY2025 update.CSE Global's target price raised to $1.20+ after key partnership with Amazon.Venture Corp reports 3QFY2025 net profit of $55.6M, down 8.3% y-o-y.

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Nov-2025): Analysts maintain 'buy' rating for UMS Integration

<ul>
<li>OCBC: REIT spin-off is a positive move for Boustead.</li>
<li>CDG's prequalification for Copenhagen Metro boosts profile; CityCab deal may add EPS.</li>
<li>DBS increases AEM target price to $2.10, citing Intel-Nvidia collaboration.</li>
</ul>


OCBC: REIT spin-off is a positive move for Boustead.
CDG's prequalification for Copenhagen Metro boosts profile; CityCab deal may add EPS.
DBS increases AEM target price to $2.10, citing Intel-Nvidia collaboration.


Singapore Market Roundup (19-Sep-2025): OCBC Views Boustead's REIT Spin-Off as a Positive Step.

<ul>
<li>OCBC raises Golden Agri-Resources target price amid strong palm oil prices.</li>
<li>CGS International raises ISOTeam target price amid upcoming drone deployment.</li>
<li>UOBKH maintains 'sell' on SIA, raises target to $6.05, cites Air India impact.</li>
</ul>


OCBC raises Golden Agri-Resources target price amid strong palm oil prices.
CGS International raises ISOTeam target price amid upcoming drone deployment.
UOBKH maintains 'sell' on SIA, raises target to $6.05, cites Air India impact.


Singapore Market Roundup (18-Sep-2025): OCBC Boosts Golden Agri Target Price Due to Strong Palm

Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

<ul>
<li>The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia's oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. </li>
<li>For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) </li>
<li>The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   </li>
</ul>


The El Nino is progressing, albeit slowly, in a volatile fashion. There is no significant impact yet on Southeast Asia's oil palm areas although YTD, rainfall is already lower YoY. 
For edible oils, heat waves and drought continue to underpin elevated yield risks, with current focus on soybeans (U.S. and China), rapeseed (Canada) and olive oil (the Mediterranean.) 
The Plantation sector and CPO price have gained some traction, but it is early days. Maintain a bullish stance. Report contains new data on earnings mixes, maturity profiles and yields.   


Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

Singapore

Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) is a leading seed-to-shelf agribusiness primarily engaged in the palm oil industry. The company cultivates oil palms, extracts crude palm oil, and processes it into various value-added products including cooking oil, margarine, shortening, biodiesel, and oleochemicals. GAR also has complementary businesses in soybean-based products, sunflower-based products, and sugar distribution. Headquartered in Singapore, the company was founded in 1996.

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Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP)

El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?

Weather risk alone is not investable; palm oil and rubber matter because ASEAN supply buffers are thinner and transmission can show up in...

Duncan Chan

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Nov-2025): Analysts maintain 'buy' rating for UMS Integration

Analysts maintain 'buy' on UMS Integration post 3QFY2025 update. CSE Global's target price rises to $1.20+ after Amazon partnership. Venture Corp's...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (19-Sep-2025): OCBC Views Boustead's REIT Spin-Off as a Positive Step.

OCBC sees Boustead's REIT spin-off positively; CDG's Copenhagen Metro prequalification enhances its profile; DBS raises AEM target price to $2.10...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (18-Sep-2025): OCBC Boosts Golden Agri Target Price Due to Strong Palm

OCBC raises Golden Agri-Resources target price due to strong palm oil prices; CGS ups ISOTeam target with drone plans; UOBKH keeps 'sell' on SIA,...

Singapore Market Roundup

Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish

The El Nino is progressing slowly, but for edible oils, heat waves around the world continue to elevate near-term yield risks. Maintain bullish...

Niklas Olausson

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