Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Widjaja family has responded to criticism from various quarters over its low-balled Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> and revised terms.</li>
<li>The all-cash payout for the 62.5% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a> is now 15.5% higher at S$0.792/share. The exit offer is 13% higher at S$0.18.1.</li>
<li>No matter how you slice it, the bump is petty. GEAR's "rump" is currently worth at least S$0.63/share.</li>
</ul>


The Widjaja family has responded to criticism from various quarters over its low-balled Offer for Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) and revised terms.
The all-cash payout for the 62.5% stake in Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ) is now 15.5% higher at S$0.792/share. The exit offer is 13% higher at S$0.18.1.
No matter how you slice it, the bump is petty. GEAR's "rump" is currently worth at least S$0.63/share.


Golden Energy: Offer Bumped. Still Insulting

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, Nissin Electric.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 21Vianet Group (VNET US), 111 Inc (YI US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK). 
Lowest spreads - Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU),Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), Nissin Electric.


Merger Arb Mondays (20 Mar) - Toshiba, AAG Energy, Tyro, Newcrest, InvoCare, Pushpay, Golden Energy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>'s revised proposal from the Widjaja family - distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR6,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.181).</li>
<li>The revised offer addresses the issue around the previous offer’s unattractive distribution cash alternative and unfavourable FX. However, the revised offer remains light but is not declared final.  </li>
<li>The revised offer fails to address the issue concerning the decline in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a> share price and the value of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanmore-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1" rel="noopener">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> stake.</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)'s revised proposal from the Widjaja family - distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR6,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.181).
The revised offer addresses the issue around the previous offer’s unattractive distribution cash alternative and unfavourable FX. However, the revised offer remains light but is not declared final.  
The revised offer fails to address the issue concerning the decline in Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ) share price and the value of Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) stake.


Golden Energy (GER SP): Revised Offer Is Still Not Good Enough

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>'s large offering of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> shares, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> aims to raise up to US$440 million. </li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, OZ Minerals. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)'s large offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) shares, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) aims to raise up to US$440 million. 
Event-Driven developments - HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), OZ Minerals. 


Weekly Deals Digest (05 Mar) - Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, HKBN, Yashili, GK Goh, Golden Energy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>’s update notes that the Widjaja family’s offer remains conditional on Indonesian regulatory, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> shareholder and SGX circular approval.</li>
<li>There are four issues - an unattractive distribution cash alternative, a decline in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-energy-mines-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16150:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)</a> shares, unfavourable FX and an increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stanmore-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15252:1" rel="noopener">Stanmore Coal (SMR AU)</a> shares.  </li>
<li>The offer remains light. A “fair” delisting price is around S$0.40 (vs S$0.16 current delisting price) and would imply an all-cash offer of S$1.074, 19% above the last close.</li>
</ul>



Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)’s update notes that the Widjaja family’s offer remains conditional on Indonesian regulatory, Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) shareholder and SGX circular approval.
There are four issues - an unattractive distribution cash alternative, a decline in Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ) shares, unfavourable FX and an increase in Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) shares.  
The offer remains light. A “fair” delisting price is around S$0.40 (vs S$0.16 current delisting price) and would imply an all-cash offer of S$1.074, 19% above the last close.


Golden Energy (GER SP): The Disconnect Between the Offer and Underlying Assets

Indonesia

PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk, (GEMS) operates as a holding company. Through its  s ubsidiaries, the Company mines for coal. GEMS' supplies paper mills and export energy markets including China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.

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Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ)

Golden Energy: Offer Bumped. Still Insulting

No matter how you slice it, the bump is petty. GEAR's "rump" is currently worth at least S$0.63/share. Terms have not been declared final. Buy at...

David Blennerhassett

Merger Arb Mondays (20 Mar) - Toshiba, AAG Energy, Tyro, Newcrest, InvoCare, Pushpay, Golden Energy

This week, the highest gross spreads are VNET (153%), 111 (35.1%), Alliance Aviation (34.2%), Genesis (24.0%), Newcrest (12.9%), AAG Energy...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): Revised Offer Is Still Not Good Enough

The revised offer remains light but has not been declared final. The key issue remains that the revised offer does not reflect the fair value of...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Mar) - Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, HKBN, Yashili, GK Goh, Golden Energy

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Nitro, Norwest, OZ, Pushpay, HKBN, Yashili, GK Goh, Golden Energy, SHL-Japan) and ECM...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): The Disconnect Between the Offer and Underlying Assets

A bump is warranted due to four factors - an unattractive distribution cash alternative, a decline in GEMS shares, an unfavourable FX trend and an...

Arun George

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